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Russian missile test in Arctic
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 01 Dec 2019

On November 30 Russia tested a hypersonic missile in the Russian Arctic. It was an air to ground missile called Kinjal which is capable of carrying a nuclear warhead. The main Russian news agency reported the news. Clearly the Russian Armed Forces want people to know. Moscow views the Arctic as i...

Islamist mitosis, growth obsessions
TURKEY · Report · 01 Dec 2019

The split in the venerable Islamist movement ought to become official before the end of the year, as former AKP heavyweights Ali Babacan and Prof. Ahmet Davutoglu formally launch new parties. They are not to be underestimated, because they represent frustrated voter segments in AKP. Furthermore, ...

Zelenskiy loses support: policy changes are looming
UKRAINE · In Brief · 01 Dec 2019

Everyone is discussing the slump of Zelenskiy's popularity. On November 27th, KIIS released fresh polls on political support. President Zelenskiy lost 21ppt just in the three months since September.His rating is still incredibly high – 52% – however, rumors say the president was extremely disappo...

​Indonesia: Ahok comes back into the picture
INDONESIA · Report · 29 Nov 2019

Ahok (the nickname of Basuki Tjahaja Purnama, the former governor of Jakarta Metropolitan) was just recently promoted as the Chairman of the Board of Pertamina, the Indonesian state-owned oil company, literally the largest company in Indonesia. This was a very high-profile promotion by the govern...

On the Central Bank intervention in the FX market
CHILE · In Brief · 29 Nov 2019

Yesterday the Central Bank of Chile announced a foreign exchange intervention plan of up to US$ 20,000 million, US$ 10,000 million of sales in the spot market and US$ 10,000 million of sales of hedging instruments. International reserves are approximately US$ 40,000 million. The statement publish...

Notes from Ningbo
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 29 Nov 2019

We just spent three days in Ningbo, China’s largest port city, 200 km from Shanghai, visiting finance companies, banks, and regulators. Four quick conclusions: 1) The trade war is having less economic impact, even on a port city, than one would expect. 2) The crackdown on shadow banking and un...

US alleges Russia covered up chemical attack in Syria
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 29 Nov 2019

On November 28 the United States claimed that Russia had helped to cover up the use of prohibited toxic weapons in Syria. The US has accused Russia of doing just that many times before. The Organization for the Prevention of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) had found against Russia. However, two OPCW scie...

Ukraine and Russia close to prisoner exchange
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 28 Nov 2019

On November 28 Russia and Ukraine agreed to exchange prisoners with Russia freeing 100 in return for 250. Strictly speaking it is the pro-Russian rebels in Ukraine who are releasing prisoners and not Russia herself. In September 2019 the two countries exchanged prisoners. Another prisoner exchang...

Car wash operation
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 27 Nov 2019

Following the votes of the rapporteur and the reviewer, the President of the Eighth Panel of the TRF 4th Region, Judge Thompson Flores, in closing today's trial, voted preliminarily against the annulment of the sentence on the case of the Atibaia ranch based on the order in which the final allega...

QATAR: Soccer and a summit could resolve Gulf dispute within weeks
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 27 Nov 2019

* We are more optimistic than we have been in two years for a breakthrough in the Gulf dispute. * Football teams from Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and UAE have just arrived in Doha for the Gulf Cup. * If their citizens also attend as fans and the tone is friendly, this will build positive momentum. *...

Cyprus removes citizenship from Russian oligarch
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 27 Nov 2019

On November 26 it was announced that Russian billionaire Oleg Deripaska has had his Cypriot citizenship revoked. Deripaska owns an aluminium company which was subject to US sanctions. The sanctions have been eased off over the past year.In 2013 Cyprus began a citizenship by investment scheme. Cit...

A Lone Ranger, no silver bullets
COLOMBIA · Report · 26 Nov 2019

In the last two months, the Colombian government has lost every single political contest: it declined dramatically in the polls, where president Duque’s favorability is going steadily south; then it was defeated in the regional elections, where Uribe’s party lost its key strongholds; then in the ...

PPI deflation may be worrisome
CHINA · Report · 26 Nov 2019

Major economic indicators were still mostly falling in October. Industrial output was up 4.7% y/y, comparable to July and August. Investment was up 3.4% y/y, down 1.3 pps from Q3. Retail sales of social consumption goods were up 7.2% y/y, and the real growth rate of this indicator was 4.9% y/y, d...

New forint weakness record at EURHUF 337.24 this morning
HUNGARY · In Brief · 26 Nov 2019

The forint was never as weak against the euro as this morning. Despite some inching back to 336.5, which was today's fixing, it is now 2% down against the euro since the start of the month, and that appears as a clear case of underperformance within the region. There does not seem to be any exter...

Will Kolomoyskiy derail the IMF deal?
UKRAINE · Report · 26 Nov 2019

When we drafted this report, the IMF mission left Kyiv signaling that the deal was not there. Before that, things in Ukraine seemed to have been moving right along. The Verkhovna Rada had approved a package of very important bills that includes unbundling Naftogaz and reinstating the illegal enr...

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