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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

PPI deflation may be worrisome
CHINA · Report · 26 Nov 2019

Major economic indicators were still mostly falling in October. Industrial output was up 4.7% y/y, comparable to July and August. Investment was up 3.4% y/y, down 1.3 pps from Q3. Retail sales of social consumption goods were up 7.2% y/y, and the real growth rate of this indicator was 4.9% y/y, d...

New forint weakness record at EURHUF 337.24 this morning
HUNGARY · In Brief · 26 Nov 2019

The forint was never as weak against the euro as this morning. Despite some inching back to 336.5, which was today's fixing, it is now 2% down against the euro since the start of the month, and that appears as a clear case of underperformance within the region. There does not seem to be any exter...

Will Kolomoyskiy derail the IMF deal?
UKRAINE · Report · 26 Nov 2019

When we drafted this report, the IMF mission left Kyiv signaling that the deal was not there. Before that, things in Ukraine seemed to have been moving right along. The Verkhovna Rada had approved a package of very important bills that includes unbundling Naftogaz and reinstating the illegal enr...

​Military tests S-400 radar and American resolve
TURKEY · In Brief · 26 Nov 2019 · 1 response

First I must apologize for skipping my contribution to our hallowed Weekly Report on account of a writer’s cramp. Literally, my mind stopped, which happens to the best of us, and I ain’t one of them. Anyway, had I written my share, the first essay would have been the suddenly rising chatter about...

Russia and Turkey agree more missile sales
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 26 Nov 2019

On November 26 Rosoborexport - the Russian State arms exporter - announced that it planned to sign a new contract with Turkey to sell S-400 missiles to that country. Turkey bought a batch of S-400 surface to air missiles earlier this year. The United States was incensed that a NATO country should...

Perspective for the external accounts and exchange rate
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 25 Nov 2019

With the decline of global growth and commodity prices, Brazil’s export performance has been weakening, reducing the trade surpluses. This portends a significant increase in the current account deficit in 2020. The decline in the terms of trade and increase of the accumulated current account defi...

The first round of Constitutional reforms was a failure… but there is hope for a positive outcome next year
PANAMA · Report · 25 Nov 2019

The economy is growing slowly but steadily (3.25% through September according to the Monthly Index of Economic Activity). The 2020 budget is consistent with this pattern and therefore will not be expansive, given the limitations of the Fiscal Responsibility Law (a 2.75% deficit ratio for 2020). T...

Strikes, demonstrations on the radar and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 25 Nov 2019

The voting agenda in the Senate includes a bill that allows for arrests following a conviction by a higher court. On Tuesday, the TSE decides whether it will accept electronic signatures for the creation of political parties. On Wednesday, the STF resumes analysis on access to confidential data. ...

Economics: Risks for 2020 public finance stability
MEXICO · Report · 25 Nov 2019

The problems posed by the strict austerity the government of Andrés Manuel López Obrador has pursued as it strives to sustain its deficit and public debt targets were on clear display not only in public finance results through the first nine months of the year, but also in the 2020 federal spendi...

A way forward fraught with risk
VENEZUELA · Report · 25 Nov 2019

With the Maduro regime learning to live with sanctions but needing some stability to endure and the Guaidó-led opposition unable to force Maduro to step down, there is space for both sides to negotiate a renewal of National Electoral Council (CNE) members and the organization of 2020 National Ass...

Politics: AMLO sets his sights on the Electoral Authority
MEXICO · Report · 25 Nov 2019

In a pattern that has become apparent to most observers of the recent rise of populist regimes and the manner in which they manage to dismantle democratic institutions and entrench themselves in power, during its first year in power the government of President Andrés Manuel López Obrador has been...

EL SALVADOR: They still love him – weak economy and all
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 25 Nov 2019

El Salvador experienced deflation in October, for the third month in a row, while core inflation has remained at virtually zero for the past 12 months. Economic activity continued to gradually slow, as merchandise exports fell, and foreign remittances and lending to the private sector were depres...

QATAR: Gas reserve/expansion hike is strongly credit positive
GULF COUNTRIES · In Brief · 25 Nov 2019

At a press conference in Doha today, the Minister of Energy, Saad al-Kaabi, made the unexpected and dramatic announcement that new appraisals have extended the range of North Field, including onshore. North Field was already scoped as the world's largest and wettest gasfield (with much higher lev...

Russia tries to increase RUB transactions
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 25 Nov 2019

On November 25 major Russian business newspaper RBK reported that the Ministry of Economic Development is aiming to increase the % of foreign transactions done in RUB from 20% at present to 30% by 2024. In 2019 14% of exports are paid for in RUB and these are mostly to former Soviet countries. 30...

Despite weak inflation, a strong shekel and soft underlying growth, rates remain on hold
ISRAEL · Report · 25 Nov 2019

Despite weak inflation, a strong shekel and soft underlying growth, rates remain on hold. * Headline inflation is running at 0.4% y/y, and core at 0.5% in October. * The shekel has appreciated by 2.3% (against the basket) this month, and remained stable since the last rate decision. * Des...

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