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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Independence Day 2024
INDONESIA · Report · 29 Aug 2024

The Indonesian economy posted another encouraging growth result for Q2 2024 at 5.05%, slightly below the 5.11% annual growth of Q1 2024. That rate of growth was achieved prior to the celebration of Indonesian Independence on August 17, 2024 in two venues: Jakarta and the new capital Nusantara, in...

Lula nominated Galípolo to replace Campos Neto as president of the Central Bank, the STF suspended the trial on the ISS tax case, and the House approved an update to tourism legislation
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 29 Aug 2024

President Lula has nominated the Central Bank's Director of Monetary Policy, Gabriel Galípolo, for the presidency of the institution. Galípolo would replace Roberto Campos Neto, whose term ends on December 31. His appointment will need to be confirmed in the Senate. Yesterday, the Supreme Federal...

No major change in trends: economic growth remains decent, albeit uneven across segments
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 29 Aug 2024

Rosstat reported that in 7M24, the output of the five basic sectors (a monthly proxy for economic activity accounting for industry, agriculture, construction, trade, and transportation) grew by 5.8% y-o-y – not bad a result, even though the y-o-y growth was higher in 1H24 (6.1%). Rosstat revised ...

The MPO will outline its spending review today, the fund transfers conflict has postponed several votes in Congress, and the STF agenda includes two topics with significant fiscal impact
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 28 Aug 2024

Today, the Ministry of Planning and Budget (MPO) will detail its spending review agenda in a press conference. The government aims to save around R$ 26 billion in 2025. The conflict in Congress over parliamentary fund transfers is stalling the resumption of voting in the House on the second Tax R...

Rates on hold on inflation acceleration and elevated risks
ISRAEL · In Brief · 28 Aug 2024

Rates were on hold today as expected, With the BoI noting that inflation is on an upward trajectory, especially service price inflation. There are “several risks for a possible acceleration in inflation: geopolitical developments and their impact on economic activity, shekel depreciation, prolong...

Kazakhstan macro budget performance, macroeconomic policy: history repeats itself in 2024, but is likely to change going forward
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 27 Aug 2024

The Ministry of Finance recently released 7M24 budgetary statistics and the government's medium-term macroeconomic outlook, confirming that tax revenues remained far from perfect in July, as the government accumulated only 44.1% of the annual planned revenues in the consolidated budget in 7M24. T...

No sterilisation rate cut in August, for the first time since April 2023
HUNGARY · In Brief · 27 Aug 2024

The Monetary Council held the MNB base rate at 6.75% at today's regular monthly rate-setting meeting: This was largely as expected: the majority of analysts, including us, predicted this outcome. However, the expectation of no rate change this month was not unanimous, as some analysts predicted a...

Justice Mendes suspended the trial on the inclusion of pension plans in the incidence of the ITCMD tax, the House should conclude voting on the Tax Reform bill, and the CAE will hold a public hearing on Tax Reform today
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 27 Aug 2024

Yesterday, Supreme Federal Court (STF) Justice Gilmar Mendes requested a review and suspended the trial discussing whether the Inheritance and Donation Tax (ITCMD) applies to the transfer of private pension plan funds upon the death of the account holder. Before the suspension, the vote stood at ...

Economics: Revised second quarter GDP and June IGAE reflect a deepening downtrend
MEXICO · Report · 27 Aug 2024

Revised second quarter GDP figures were released late last week that include a more complete statistical breakdown by sector and branches and a slight downward adjustment from the 1.1% yoy seasonally adjusted growth figures to a revised 1.0% increase. The downward revision is probably due to the ...

Immune to everything?
VENEZUELA · Report · 27 Aug 2024

The Supreme Court of Justice has validated the results of Venezuela’s July 28 presidential election that had been announced by the National Electoral Council. The formality was carried out amidst a wave of harsh repression that sent the message that those in the upper echelons of government have ...

Quo Vadis, Mehmet?
TURKEY · In Brief · 27 Aug 2024 · 2 responses

I was detoxing my brain from the filth of Turkish politics in the Aegean resort town Ayvalik, Balikesir, when rumors of Mehmet Simsek’s resignation hit the media, like a sucker punch to the jowl. It took me some time to get my bearings together and make sense of the whole mess, but no worries, De...

A temporary truce in the fund transfer crisis and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 26 Aug 2024

The House may conclude the vote on the second Tax Reform regulation bill (regarding the Management Committee). The payroll tax relief bill should be submitted to the House. The government submits the 2025 Federal Budget to Congress, proposing an increase in the CSLL and JCP. On August 30, the fre...

Did the Bank of Jamaica wait too long to cut interest rates? Finance Minister Nigel Clarke moves to IMF at the end of October. Was he the best Finance Minister in the Western Hemisphere?
JAMAICA / BAHAMAS · Report · 26 Aug 2024

At its monetary policy committee (MPC) meetings on the 16th and 19th of August, the Bank of Jamaica (BOJ) unanimously agreed to reduce its policy rate by 25 basis points to 6.75%, effective Wednesday, August 21, 2024. This was the first cut since it began its tightening cycle in 2022, when it rai...

Politics: Private sector, foreign governments raise concerns of an authoritarian regression from "Plan C" constitutional reforms
MEXICO · Report · 26 Aug 2024

Financial markets reacted negatively to the incumbent coalition’s sweeping election victory June 2, but thanks in part to Claudia Sheinbaum's moving quickly to reassure investors, the turbulence subsided. Even as opinion writers and analysts engaged in considerable debate over whether the electio...

An Unpleasant Regression
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 26 Aug 2024

We have long warned about economic activity exceeding its potential, as evident when we look at the unemployment rate, which is at its lowest level in nearly ten years. Here, we complement this by analyzing the behavior of capacity utilization (NUCI), suggesting that pressure on production also a...

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