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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Bolsonaro selects new Justice Minister and Federal Police General Director
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 28 Apr 2020

President Jair Bolsonaro appointed André Mendonça, who until now was the Attorney General of the Union (AGU), as Sergio Moro’s replacement in the Ministry of Justice and Public Security. His appointment is a compromise. Mendonça has good relations with the ministers of the Federal Supreme Court ...

Bracing for shrinkage of up to 4%
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 28 Apr 2020

The COVID-19 pandemic is still developing in El Salvador, with negative economic effects arriving on the heels of the government’s tough measures to cope with it. The virus arrived relatively late, with the first positive case recorded on March 18th. That was almost two weeks after the first case...

Oil forecast 2020-2021: near total collapse
VENEZUELA · Report · 28 Apr 2020

Even compared to the current terrible state of Venezuela’s oil industry, we forecast that output and exports will plunge further this year and the next. In our 2020–2021 central scenario, oil output falls throughout this year, reaching 250,000 barrels per day in December 2020 (from 907,000 in Dec...

Russian incomes fall sharply
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 28 Apr 2020

Russian incomes fell by 0.2% in Q1 of 2020. The fall started before the coronavirus quarantine. The decline is partly due to the collapse in the price of the hydrocarbons and the concomitant reduction in the value of the RUB. Incomes are likely to continue to decline in Q2. The small income gains...

No policy change, no surprise at today's Monetary Council meeting
HUNGARY · In Brief · 28 Apr 2020

The monthly rate-setting meeting of the Monetary Council did not bring about any policy change. Indeed, no one expected any, as the existing unusual circumstances pushed the previous meeting, the one on April 7, forward into the position of the month's real rate-setting session, and a large numbe...

Government builds up cash
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 28 Apr 2020

The Philippines today raised US$2.35 billion from international capital markets, priced at T+180 for a $1-billion 10y bond and 2.95% for a $1.35-billion 25y bond, the “lowest ever coupon” for both maturities per the National Treasurer. The borrowings come on top of some $1.8 billion secured recen...

Prestige for Paulo Guedes
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 27 Apr 2020

President Jair Bolsonaro on April 27 made important gestures of affirmation toward the Minister of Economy, Paulo Guedes. In his traditional conversation with journalists near the Alvorada Palace, Bolsonaro was accompanied by Guedes and Ministers Tarcisio Freitas (Infrastructure), Tereza Cristina...

From person-to-person distancing to person-to market contacts: the journey to recovery
PANAMA · Report · 27 Apr 2020

The economic performance of Panama in 2020 may be slightly less optimistic than the projections of the multilaterals and rating agencies suggest (on average -2.0%), according to our estimates. The financing of a 6% NFPS deficit is almost complete, with a small gap to fill this year. We project a ...

The Centrao and Bolsonaro
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 27 Apr 2020

The exit of Minister Sérgio Moro will continue to create ripples in Brasília. His resignation may affect votes in Congress such as the constitutional amendment proposal on the “war budget” and the pandemic aid package for states and municipalities. Requests for the creation of a Parliamentary Inq...

Politics: Covid and the breakdown of federalism
MEXICO · Report · 27 Apr 2020

The Covid-19 epidemic has emerged as the latest battle line pitting numerous state governors and municipal governments against President Andrés Manuel López Obrador, one that is likely to have lasting political implications in addition to potentially magnifying the human tragedy posed by the pand...

Russia 4th in arms spending
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 27 Apr 2020

On April 27 the Peace Research Institute declared that Russia is now the 4th biggest spender on arms. In 2019 Russia spent USD 65 billion on arms. This is up from USD 61.4 billion in 2018. This is 3.9% of GDP which is almost the highest in Europe. Nearby NATO countries have increased defense spen...

Focusing on “six stabilities,” while struggling to grow
CHINA · Report · 27 Apr 2020

The Chinese economy was hit hard by the coronavirus in Q1, and GDP fell -6.8% y/y. Because the virus is almost contained in China, economic activities have since March been gradually picking up, and there were clear signs of recovery. Industrial output was down -1.1% y/y, up 12.4 pps from January...

​Russia in Brief: Pandemic affected the economy in 1Q20, but not yet much
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 27 Apr 2020

Rosstat reported that retail sales were strongly up in March (by 5.6% y-o-y) which lifted the 1Q20 y-o-y growth to 4.3%. Growth accelerated both in the food and non-food segments which in 1Q20 were up by 3.6% and 5.0% y-o-y. Clearly such an acceleration was largely driven by preemptive purchases ...

Russia’s macro policy: A peculiar mix of lower rates and FX interventions
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 27 Apr 2020

As the markets expected, the CBR cut its key policy rate by 50 bps on April 24, hinted at more rate cuts of around 100 bps, and announced that monetary policy is becoming more accommodative. This is undoubtedly a strong positive message for the OFZ market, which had rallied a lot in anticipation ...

Heading to the Abyss, at High Speed
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 27 Apr 2020 · 1 response

The Bolsonaro administration had been trying to follow a liberal program aimed at restoring the country to steady growth. It was making very slow progress toward the reforms necessary for fiscal consolidation when the COVID-19 pandemic hit, dooming the country to a recession and destroying the pr...

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