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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Hungary in the centre of the Brexit endgame?
HUNGARY · In Brief · 06 Oct 2019

In a rather unusual story, two British newspapers (Telegraph and Express) reported Hungarian foreign minister Péter Szíjjártó and Hungary's ambassador to the UK to have been spotted as leaving the building of the UK Cabinet Office on Friday morning, around the time when PM Boris Johnson reportedl...

Moreno’s economic knock out
ECUADOR · Report · 05 Oct 2019

Moreno took many by surprise announcing an elimination of fuel subsidies instead of the expected VAT increase requested by the IMF to comply with a 1.5% of GDP increase in revenues for next year.This measure needs no approval from the assembly and would render results starting this month if the g...

Secretary of Ukrainian Security Council resigns
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 05 Oct 2019

Oleksandr Danyliuk resigned as Secretary of the National Defence and Security Council on September 30. Danyliuk was a Poroshenko appointee. The reason for his resignation is unclear but he said it was related to the PrivatBank dispute. There had been rumors in late September that Danyliuk was goi...

Will China “defund” Hong Kong?
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 04 Oct 2019

Beijing has indirectly suggested two, very different, economic policies towards Hong Kong as a result of the six-month long protests. 1) One policy calls for financial support from Chinese state firms. Reuters reported Sept. 21 (never confirmed) that nearly 100 state firms met over the border...

PLD primary could go either way
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Report · 04 Oct 2019

The two main political parties -- the PLD, in power since 2004, and the PRM -- will hold their presidential primaries this weekend. All eyes are on the PLD contest, as in the PRM Luis Abinader is expected to handily trounce former president Hipólito Mejía. But in the PLD, the contest between Gon...

OMAN: VAT train slowly chugs into the station, but other reforms will have to wait until it has left
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 04 Oct 2019

My visit to Oman hasn’t thrown up many surprises; the economy continues to trundle along, and we are still waiting for the government to deliver on its fiscal reforms. VAT should finally happen in 2021, raising around 1.7% of GDP annually. While a number of other fiscal reforms are under con...

A new fiscal deficit ceiling
PANAMA · In Brief · 03 Oct 2019

Yesterday, Héctor Alexander, the head of the Ministry of Economy and Finance (MEF) presented a bill of law at the national assembly in order to amend the deficit limit of 2.0% of GDP established by the Social Fiscal Responsibility Law (LRSF) back in October 2018. The proposed amendment would rais...

Breakthrough on peace for Ukraine
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 03 Oct 2019

On October 1 Ukraine reached an agreement with Russia on the breakaway regions of Donbass and Luhansk. At talks in Minsk the Ukrainian delegation agreed to new elections being held in two rebel held regions and to grant special political status to these regions. The agreement is known as the Stei...

Back to single digits, as expected
TURKEY · In Brief · 03 Oct 2019

CPI inflation rose by 1%, m/m, in September, lower than the market consensus (and our forecast) of some 1.3%, m/m, as the 12-month CPI inflation declined to 9.3%, from 15% in August. Our forecast slippage mainly stemmed from food and beverage inflation, which came in at a negative 0.6%, versus ou...

South Africa’s National Treasury pleased with the oversubscribed new bonds, but the country’s borrowing costs remain elevated
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 02 Oct 2019

The South African government has been able to raise money through the issuance of bonds since the late-1990s. Last week, the National Treasury announced that government had successfully placed US$5 billion worth of bonds in the international capital market, comprised of 10-year bonds, (maturing i...

The shekel appreciates sharply on Israel's joining the WGBI
ISRAEL · Report · 02 Oct 2019

Last Friday witnessed a sharp shekel appreciation of 1% (against both the dollar and the Euro), which continued after the official exchange rate was announced at 13:30. The dramatic shekel strengthening followed the announcement by Russell FTSE of Israel's joining the World Global Bond Index in A...

Belarus-Russian talks on reunification falter
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 02 Oct 2019

On October 1 Belarusian Foreign Minister Makei said that the terms of reunification with Russia are not acceptable. In 1999 the two countries agreed the long term goal of merging into a single sovereign state. However, there has been very little progress. Russia and Belarus already belong to a un...

Electoral reform proposed in Russia
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 02 Oct 2019

The chair of Russian Central Election Commission proposed reforms on September 30. Ella Pamfilova said that the head of the electoral commission in each region should be held responsible for any violations that are not addressed. Local elections are often marred by significant fraud and Pamfilova...

​Akar and Erdogan warn on safe zone
TURKEY · In Brief · 02 Oct 2019

At the inauguration ceremonies of the Grand Assembly, Defense Minister retired General Hulusi Akar and President Erdogan reiterated in very forceful and clear words that Turkey has run out of patience in delayign tactics in establishing a safe zone in North East Syria.“Time is near to take matter...

​QATAR: A recession may be on us, but doesn’t matter much
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 01 Oct 2019

Qatar’s economy contracted by -1.4% y/y in real terms in Q2 2019 as the three largest sectors - hydrocarbons, manufacturing and construction - all declined. There is likely to also be a contraction in Q3, indicating a technical recession. However, none of this should concern investors too much be...

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