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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Rouhani doubles-down on no talks under sanctions position
GULF COUNTRIES · In Brief · 25 Sep 2019

In his address at the UN General Assembly, the Iranian president, Hassan Rouhani, very firmly reiterated his position that Iran would not negotiate with the US while sanctions remain in place (video - substantive comments start around minute 5). The gist of his argument was that there is no point...

Conference call on oil, politics & debt in the Gulf States - including impact of attacks on Saudi
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 25 Sep 2019

The recent attack on Saudi Arabia's oilfields brings into focus the risks and opportunities of investment in the GCC countries. With the inclusion of all six GCC countries in the JP Morgan EMBI Indices and four of them in the MSCI Emerging Markets Index, there is surging interest in the region, a...

Russia might be banned from all international sport
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 24 Sep 2019

The World Anti Doping Agency (WADA) announced on 23 September that it is considering banning Russia from all international sports competitions. This would also entail forbidding Russia from hosting international sports events. WADA declared that there were many inconsistencies in laboratory data ...

Internal American row puts Ukraine in a tricky position
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 24 Sep 2019

Democrats in the US have accused Trump of asking the Ukrainians to pass on embarrassing information about Joe Biden. Former Vice-President Biden is the front runner for the Democratic Party's nomination in 2020. President Trump confirmed that he asked Ukraine to disclose damaging material on Bide...

Financial market opens further
CHINA · Report · 24 Sep 2019

Growth is slowing further. In August, industrial output was up 4.4% y/y, down 0.4 pps from July, while investment rose 4.2% y/y, down 1.3 pps from Q2. Retail sales of social consumption goods were up 7.5% y/y in August, down 1.1 pps from Q2. The indicator’s real growth rate was 5.6% y/y, down ...

In search of funds
ECUADOR · In Brief · 24 Sep 2019

Minister Martinez announced two new international issues with maturities of 5 and 10 years (March 2025 and March 2030), respectively to complete financing for 2019. Our previous estimate for international financing was around $1.0 to $1.2 billion, but if two issues are being considered, then $1.5...

MNB: The forint can go wherever it wants
HUNGARY · In Brief · 24 Sep 2019

The Monetary Council decided today to keep all interest rates unchanged and to RAISE the Q4 target for unsterilised bank liquidity to HUF300-500bn, i.e. by HUF100bn from the Q3 target. At a press conference following the release of the communiqué, the Bank said that they are not at all worried ab...

Trump's UN comments indicate a lack of enthusiasm for a conflict with Iran
GULF COUNTRIES · In Brief · 24 Sep 2019

World leaders will be trying to shape the global discourse over the Middle East at the UN General Assembly in New York this week, and perhaps even talking with Iran. Trump was the first to the podium this morning. He repeated criticism of Iran, blamed it for the Saudi attacks and said "As long as...

Economics: Misplaced budgetary optimism
MEXICO · Report · 23 Sep 2019

In the second part of our analysis of the government’s 2020 budget package, we assess the outlook for public sector balances, as well as the revenue and expenditure levels of the proposed Federal Revenue Law and the Federal Spending Bill. While the government is projecting only slight increase...

Politics: Signs of a more nuanced view of AMLO
MEXICO · Report · 23 Sep 2019

A new nationwide poll taken by GEA-ISA shows a five-point drop in public approval of the job President Andrés Manuel López Obrador, the latest sign of a duality we first detected in June between the President’s generally high approval ratings and slippage in enthusiasm for some aspects of the cur...

Pension Reform should be approved with an ample majority in the Senate's first round and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 23 Sep 2019

President Jair Bolsonaro gives the opening speech at the United Nations General Assembly. The environment and the Amazon will be prioritized in his speech. The Senate votes on the first round of Pension Reform. Senators will also analyze Augusto Aras’ appointment to the PGR. In the economy, we hi...

Grappling with the slowdown by means of a corporate tax rate cut
INDIA · Report · 23 Sep 2019 · 1 response

The central challenge in Indian macroeconomics consists of the reduced investment rate of private persons. Corporate investment is now down to levels seen in previous slumps. There has been a sharp increase in the dividend payout rate. This shows firms paying out their cash, instead of investing ...

An exciting Monetary Council meeting is due tomorrow
HUNGARY · In Brief · 23 Sep 2019

On Tuesday, September 24, the Monetary Council is scheduled to come together for a rate-setting meeting and to discuss the next quarterly inflation report. On this occasion, no-one expects any change in interest rates, and indeed, analysts seem to agree that no interest rate measure is likely at ...

A larger dose of monetary stimulus
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 23 Sep 2019

We are reducing our SELIC rate forecast to 4.5% a year at the end of 2019. To what do we owe such change? The conditional projections shown in the Central Bank’s most recent communiqué, indicating that if the exchange rate remains stable at R$4.05/US$ and the SELIC falls to 5%, inflation would en...

Coalition formation will take some time, with no simple solution in sight
ISRAEL · Report · 23 Sep 2019

Economic indicators for early Q3 2019 point to robust growth, likely to reach 3%-3.5%. The labor market remains tight and at near full employment, unsupportive of more accommodating policy. Israeli institutions continued to sell FX in July, a trend that has supported shekel appreciation this year...

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