Services

COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Boluarte’s bid for popularity fails; economy slows, but should grow 2.8% in 2024; BCRP likely to cut 25bp per month until December
PERU · Report · 20 Aug 2024 · 1 response

We discuss three topics in this report. We begin with President Dina Boluarte‘s recent failed attempt to boost her popularity. We next consider the June real GDP report from the Instituto Nacional de Estadística e Informática (INEI, the national statistical institute), which confirms a sharp econ...

The 2024 Elections: With the formation of the GNU, the left is realigning
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 20 Aug 2024

Last Thursday, August 15, Mr. Floyd Shivambu, the co-founder and Deputy Commander-in-Chief (The Party Leader) of the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF), resigned from the party and announced he would join the MKP (uMkhonto weSizwe Party). The announcement is yet another “aftershock” of the May 2024 ...

Senator Wagner may present a new draft of the payroll tax exemption bill, government leaders meet to discuss Justice Dino’s injunction on parliamentary fund transfers, and the CNE holds a protest in front of the AGU
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 20 Aug 2024

Senator Jaques Wagner may present a new draft of the bill that deals with the reduction of payroll tax exemptions. The government's goal is to try to vote on the bill this week. A meeting is scheduled today between the President of the STF, Luís Roberto Barroso, and the Presidents of the Senate, ...

On hold, as expected
TURKEY · Report · 20 Aug 2024

The CBRT/MPC kept the policy rate at 50% today, as expected. Today’s statement also differs relatively little from the July statement (here and here, respectively), but now: i) more emphasis is placed on the alignment of expectations and pricing behavior with inflation projections, which “has gai...

Economics: Banxico cut of reference rate can be considered premature
MEXICO · Report · 20 Aug 2024 · 1 response

As mentioned in last week's edition of the Economic Outlook, the Banco de México's Board of Governors decided at its August 8 meeting to lower the reference rate from 11% to 10.75%, with three votes in favor and two against. This occurred in the context of the recent publication of the July 2024 ...

The fund transfer issue is hurting the government and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 19 Aug 2024

The Senate is making another attempt to vote on the payroll tax relief bill. A new report will be presented next week. The House's Committee on Economic Affairs (CAE) continues with public hearings to discuss the regulation of the Tax Reform (PLP No. 68/24). This week's Talking Points: ...

"Eppur Si Muove"
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 19 Aug 2024

Economic activity has displayed resilience in the face of the catastrophe in the South and continues to pose a challenge for inflation. Manufactures output has presented robust results since December but is subject to increasing unit labor costs, that is, real wages growing ahead of productivity,...

Politics: Implications of AMLO’s laissez-faire attitude towards cartels for security and future relations with Washington
MEXICO · Report · 19 Aug 2024

Following last week’s discussion of President López Obrador's legacy in terms of the assets and liabilities for governance he bequeaths the next presidential administration, we are expanding our focus to the main issues on the national agenda, starting with the further erosion of the already tenu...

Political gender violence or attempt at a coup d'état?
ECUADOR · Report · 19 Aug 2024

The political saga between President Daniel Noboa and Vice President Veronica Abad has escalated to mutual accusations of gender-based political violence on the side of Abad and attempts at a coup d’état raised by the official side. The truth of the matter is that Noboa, who has a high probabilit...

President Abinader announces a broad reform agenda, as he’s sworn in for his second term
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Report · 19 Aug 2024

During his August 16th swearing in ceremony for his second term, President Luis Abinader promised to implement a broad agenda of economic, social and political reforms that would make the Dominican Republic a developed country, with a strong democracy and a fair economy that would solve people's ...

The Senate may vote on the payroll tax relief bill this week, the House may discuss the Tax Reform regulation bill, and the STF may adjudicate cases against Labor Reform measures that established intermittent contracts
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 19 Aug 2024

The Senate may vote this week on the bill addressing payroll tax relief. The rapporteur, Senator Jaques Wagner (PT-BA), will present a new report today, August 19. This week, the Ministry of Finance will send a study to Eduardo Braga (MDB-AM), the likely rapporteur in the Senate, detailing the im...

Inflation accelerates despite weak growth
ISRAEL · Report · 19 Aug 2024

1. Economic activity disappointed in the second quarter and is being supported by government spending and private consumption (in part also due to fiscal policy). 2. Inflation accelerated in July, both services and goods, a trend that is expected to continue. 3. All eyes are on ceasefire ne...

GDP growth disappoints as inflation accelerates
ISRAEL · In Brief · 18 Aug 2024

Geopolitics: Negotiations continue in an attempt to reach a cease-fire. Biden sounds optimistic, while Hamas is rather doubtful. Israel continues to maneuver in Gaza and target Hezbollah in Lebanon, which retaliates with drone attacks as well. GDP growth was rather weak in the second quarter GDP ...

On the shores of Rubicon
TURKEY · Forecast · 16 Aug 2024

The Economic Stabilization Program is facing multiple external and domestic threats. While President Erdogan withstanding the pressure and giving the Treasury and Finance Minister Simsek the go-ahead for even tighter policies can certainly not be ruled out, the base-case scenario of our politics ...

GULF WEEKLY: Critical Gaza talks are underway in Qatar, OPEC revised down oil demand growth, Saudi investment law updated
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 16 Aug 2024

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * OPEC cut its demand growth forecast for the first time in over a year, although it’s still double the IEA’s. * Saudi Arabia revised its investment law to encourage FDI with less red tape and more investor rights. * Saudi ...

Copyright 2025 GlobalSource Partners. All rights reserved.