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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Government macro forecast changes in the right direction but at the wrong time
HUNGARY · In Brief · 03 Apr 2025

Early this week, Mr. Nagy, the economy minister, announced a scaling back of the government's 2025 GDP growth forecast to 2.5% from the 3.4% included in the annual budget, parallel to raising this year's forecast for average CPI-inflation to 4.5% from the original 3.2%. These are exactly the figu...

"Liberation Day" tariffs have limited direct impact on the GCC but have hurt the oil price
GULF COUNTRIES · In Brief · 02 Apr 2025

As a hot take on the impact of the US tariff announcements on the GCC, here are two positives, two negatives, and two areas that are currently unknown. There will be much more to discuss as responses and secondary impacts become clearer. Positives 1. GCC competitiveness in the US (and elsewhere) ...

Bi-weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 02 Apr 2025

Mar 19 Energy Ministry: Mr Akkezhenov (formerly Deputy Minister) has been appointed as the new Minister of Energy. National nuclear company: In 2024, Kazatomprom’s net profit increased by 38%. Energy Ministry: Kazakhstan held talks with French EDF. These negotiations are part of the process of ch...

Mexico Macro Monitor: General Pre-Guidelines for Economic Policy for 2026
MEXICO · In Brief · 02 Apr 2025

“General Pre-Guidelines for Economic Policy”: High optimism regarding growth, inflation, and public deficit for 2025; relative pessimism in the oil market. The Mexican Ministry of Finance (SHCP) presented the so-called “General Pre-Guidelines for Economic Policy (PCGPE in Spanish)”, which include...

Pachakutik support for Gonzalez
ECUADOR · In Brief · 02 Apr 2025

As a follow up to my webinar of last Monday, I wanted to present our perspective on how Pachakutik could vote on April 13. By the end of Sunday, March 30th, Pachakutik decided to officially support Luisa Gonzalez. Leonidas Iza conditioned this support to the following points: no oil neither minin...

Trump to announce reciprocal tariffs impacting Brazilian exports, opposition in the House threatens to obstruct the trade bill until the amnesty bill is addressed, and tax reform advances
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 02 Apr 2025

The whole world is waiting for Donald Trump's announcement on reciprocal tariffs. The day is being called the "Day of Liberation," with tariffs of 25% on all imported cars and "reciprocal" tariffs country by country—which could affect Brazilian products exported to the U.S. such as ethanol. Yeste...

Mexico Macro Monitor: The Global Indicator of Economic Activity recorded zero annual growth in January
MEXICO · In Brief · 01 Apr 2025

The Global Indicator of Economic Activity recorded zero annual growth in January and a -0.2% monthly decline with seasonally adjusted figures The Global Indicator of Economic Activity (IGAE) showed no annual growth in January 2025, following declines in October and December of the previous year a...

Central Bank maintains monetary policy rate unchanged
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 01 Apr 2025

For the fourth consecutive month, the Central Bank of the Dominican Republic (BCRD) will keep the monetary policy rate unchanged as of January 2025. In April 2025, the policy rate will remain at 5.75% per year. Similarly, the interest rate on the permanent liquidity expansion facility (1-day repo...

Mexico Macro Monitor: In February the fiscal deficit dropped sharply, however it is unlikely the annual target will be met
MEXICO · In Brief · 01 Apr 2025

By February 2025, public finances strengthened. Total revenues rose by 4.8% in real annual terms (driven by a 10.1% increase in tax revenues), while spending saw an exceptional decline of 17%. This sharply reduced the fiscal deficit, measured by the broad Public Sector Borrowing Requirements (PSB...

Mexico Macro Monitor: Banxico prioritizes support for economic slowdown vs. controlling inflation
MEXICO · In Brief · 01 Apr 2025

Banxico (Mexico's Central Bank) decided to lower its target interest rate to 9%. This confirms that the central concern of the Governing Board is that the ex-ante real interest rate remains too high, and it appears to prioritize economic recovery over inflation control—the latter being its primar...

Lula intensifies political negotiations and prepares a cabinet reshuffle, the Lower House debates the amnesty bill amid political polarization, and the Senate advances tax reform and a trade reciprocity agenda
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 01 Apr 2025

President Lula returned last weekend from a trip to Japan. He traveled with several members of Congress, including Speaker of the House Hugo Motta (Republicanos-PB) and Senate President Davi Alcolumbre (União-AP). Lula pledged to improve relations with Congress by holding more meetings with poli...

Essential CIS Politics: April 2025
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 01 Apr 2025

- Trump threatens with 25-50 per cent oil tariffs on Moscow if a ceasefire agreement is not reached. - Moscow shows signs of rapprochement to new HTS authorities in Damascus. - Trump wants right of first offer regarding projects to develop Ukraine’s resources. - Russia forc...

Sanctions tighten rapidly
VENEZUELA · Report · 01 Apr 2025

Over the last few days, news regarding the Trump administration's sanctions on Venezuelan oil has pointed to an unprecedented tightening of the sanctions framework, which will substantially impact the country's oil revenues. The revocation of licenses and comfort letters, the March 24 Executiv...

Politics: Mexico’s police forces are ill-equipped to deal with heightened public insecurity
MEXICO · Report · 31 Mar 2025

Public insecurity is on the rise in Mexico. The latest national victimization survey indicates a 17% increase in crimes in 2023. The three most frequent crimes are fraud, robbery and assaults on public transportation or on the street, and extortion. The vast majority of these crimes, about 90%, g...

Israeli geopolitics: Trump, Tehran, and turmoil at home—Israel faces regional threats and political unrest
ISRAEL · Report · 31 Mar 2025 · 1 response

Key takeaways from this report: - A potential end to the Ukraine war under Trump’s mediation might allow Russia to redirect its focus back to the Middle East, causing destabilization from Israel’s perspective. - American-Iranian negotiations may ease direct confrontation but might agi...

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