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Concerns at the top despite high credit growth
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 22 Feb 2019

Premier Li Keqiang warned about excessive credit growth in a meeting at the State Council this week. The January data would seem to confirm the excess growth. Li’s comments suggest conflict within the senior levels of government about the degree of monetary expansion. We just spent several days i...

Agreement Number 19
ECUADOR · Report · 21 Feb 2019 · 1 response

After much hesitation, the government reached an extended fund facility for $4.2 billion with the IMF, which according to President Moreno´s statement, will open the door to $6.0 billion from the World Bank, the IDB, CAF, the European Investment Bank, FLAR and the French Development Agency. This ...

Higher coupons on HUF government bonds sold to households
HUNGARY · In Brief · 21 Feb 2019

ÁKK is raising the coupons it pays on the HUF-denominated half-year government bond sold only to households to 2.5% from 2%, and on the similar one-year bond to 3% from 2.5%, from February 25. In addition, the 5-year inflation-indexed household bond's coupon will jump to 4.5% from 4.1% after the ...

South Africa’s 2019 Budget: Tough decisions made, but will it be enough?
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 20 Feb 2019

South African Budget 2019 was delivered today by Finance Minister Tito Mboweni, his maiden Budget Speech following the delivery of the Mid Term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS) in October 2018, a mere two weeks after taking over as the new Minister of Finance. The Minister had indicated that South...

Pension Reform: Main points
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 20 Feb 2019

Today, President Jair Bolsonaro delivered to Congress the proposal for Pension Reform. According to the government, the core principals of the proposal are the creation of a fair and egalitarian system, in which those who earn less pay less; guarantee of the sustainability of the system; greater ...

Uzbekistan places first govt Eurobond, upcoming corporate placements
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 20 Feb 2019

Uzbekistan last week issued its first Government Eurobond, at USD 1 bn, 8.5 times oversubscribed with a yield at 5.375%. This is a major success. There are 5 year and 10 year notes. Uzbek companies need finance for foreign trade and to invest in domestic production and services.The yield on 10 ye...

Economics: Clear harbingers of a slowdown
MEXICO · Report · 18 Feb 2019

Data published in recent weeks regarding a range of production and aggregate demand components may foreshadow a more significant deceleration of the Mexican economy than most anyone was anticipating late last year. And while we have sustained since the third quarter a conservative 2019 GDP growth...

Politics: AMLO’s winning ways with the generals
MEXICO · Report · 18 Feb 2019

During his 2018 election campaign, President Andrés Manuel López Obrador frequently took polemical shots at the country’s armed forces, painting them as machine-gunning citizens left and right, and regularly promising that under an AMLO administration the troops would no longer be used to repress...

Ugly inflation data and an upgrade from S&P
HUNGARY · Report · 18 Feb 2019

Over the past month, bad news came along with good news, none of them completely unexpected. On the dark side, adjusted core inflation continued its upward march and reached the trigger point at which the MNB formerly said would consider monetary tightening. Given this event, and especially the s...

Another ailing State-Owned Company-SA Airways- to be split into three divisions
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 18 Feb 2019

In its April 2018 Financial Stability Review, the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) warned that state firms’ debt may threaten South Africa’s financial stability. Indeed, governance issues at state-owned entities (SOEs), rising contingent liabilities (in the form of government guarantees) and ina...

The Pension Reform battle in Congress
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 18 Feb 2019

This week’s Talking Points: • The Pension Reform battle in Congress • Widespread support for Pension Reform in the Lower House • The Bebianno issue • The dangers of Parliamentary Committees of Inquiry (CPIs) • Doria retains prominence • The TST’s decision strengthens the privatization agend...

Michael Calvey to be held for two months
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 18 Feb 2019

A court decided that Michael Calvey will be detained for two months before his trial begins. This is the norm in Russia. There had been some hope that he would be released on 18 February but the court decided otherwise. The American investor Calvey and three senior employees of Baring Vostok are ...

Revision of the growth estimates
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 18 Feb 2019

In light of the data released last week, the best estimate is that GDP variation in the fourth quarter of 2018 was nil. With this, our estimate of growth for last year has fallen from 1.3% to 1.1%, and based on this alteration and the latest coinciding indicators, we have to revise our previous g...

Despite January's upward CPI surprise, rates to remain on hold
ISRAEL · Report · 18 Feb 2019

Although January's CPI surprised on the upside, the inflation environment remains fairly tame. We expect inflation to reach 1.1% in the NTM impacted by a strong shekel and weakening wage pressure offset by tax increases and higher housing rental prices. GDP growth reached 3.1% saar in Q418, in...

Time for Plan B in pork-barreling?
TURKEY · Report · 17 Feb 2019

As economic data published in January-February reveal an economy mired in recession, and the few polls available to public suggest AKP-MHP failing to gain ground, the administration may be switching to Plan B in electoral populism, namely fiscal and monetary expansionism. Unconventional methods o...

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