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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Not much new to write home about
TURKEY · Report · 07 Jul 2024

Turkey exploded in anti-Syrian rage during the week, while Syrians in Turkey-controlled areas of their country retaliated in kind. The politics author does not anticipate more inter-communal violence, but President Erdogan is now desperate to make peace with Assad. The major threat to Erdogan fro...

Mixed macro data reported again in recent days
HUNGARY · In Brief · 07 Jul 2024

In the past week, Mr. Orbán's lively diplomatic manoeuvres took all of the limelight, but there were also important data releases. Some of the new figures were quite positive, but others were not, and so the overall picture was not particularly impressive. First, the Q1 general government deficit...

A rate hold decision is expected hinting at likely loosening when geopolitical risks decline
ISRAEL · In Brief · 07 Jul 2024

Geopolitics: There is renewed optimism regarding a possible cease-fire and a hostage deal with Hamas not demanding a complete end to hostilities and total Israel withdrawal as pre-conditions for a deal. It is still difficult to say whether a deal will actually occur. Israel continues to operate i...

US postpones military drills in Georgia due to rift
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 07 Jul 2024

On July 5 the United States said it will not hold the exercises in the Republic of Georgia for the foreseeable future. This was explicitly because of the US reviewing relations with the former Soviet republic. Washington DC is unhappy with the Foreign Agent Act that was passed in Georgia in June ...

NATO pledges USD 43 billion military aid to Ukraine
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 07 Jul 2024

On June 5 NATO confirmed the rumors about the donation. This is ahead of the NATO Summit in Washington DC starting on July 9. The major donation is another attempt to Trump-proof Ukraine in case Trump becomes president again on January 20, 2025. The NATO Secretary-General called for the member th...

PM Orbán indeed showed up in Moscow today. But why?
HUNGARY · In Brief · 05 Jul 2024

Mr. Orbán indeed travelled to Moscow today, meeting president Putin, talking mainly about the war in Ukraine. They held a press conference afterwards, where Mr. Orbán said that he understands that the period of Hungary's rotating EU presidency is also a kind of a peace mission. A Kremlin spokesma...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: 1Q24 entrenches theme of CA return to "normal" deficit position
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 05 Jul 2024

The publication of current account data for the CCA economies for 1Q24 allows us to assess overall external performance in the region in the first quarter of the year. The key theme that we have argued previously, i.e., that the one-off sizable improvement of CA positions in 2022 on the back of ...

The Tax Reform Working Group presented the first version of the text, the government requested an urgent status for the CBS and IBS Tax Reform bill, and Lula will participate in the Mercosur Summit next week
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 05 Jul 2024

The House Working Group on Tax Reform regulation on the Goods and Services Tax (IBS) and Contribution on Goods and Services (CBS) presented the first version of the text. The Selective Tax will be levied on vehicles, vessels, and aircraft, tobacco products, alcoholic and sugary beverages, mineral...

GULF WEEKLY: Saudi employment improves in Q1 but FDI remains weak, PIF and Qatar Airways report strong profits, Israel sends ceasefire negotiators back to Qatar
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 05 Jul 2024

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Current surpluses rose in Q1 in Qatar (15% of GDP) and KSA (3%) but eased in Bahrain (5%). * Inward FDI remained weak in KSA (1% of GDP), fell in Bahrain (to 2%), and turned negative in Qatar. * Qatar’s PMI surged in June...

PM Orbán is supposedly on his way to Moscow at this moment
HUNGARY · In Brief · 05 Jul 2024

PM Orbán met Ukrainian president Zelensky on Tuesday this week (July 2). This meeting was followed by an impressive amount of media noise, created by the affected governments, other politicians, political analysts and journalists all around the world. Most of the post-meeting comments appeared to...

Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 05 Jul 2024

The effects of sanctions against the Russian FX infrastructure are still visible. The ruble remains abnormally strong (currently, it trades around R/$87-88 on the OTC market vs about R/$90 before the announcement of restrictions). It looks abnormal as the bank’s net liquidity position with the CB...

Turkmen pipeline to Iran
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 04 Jul 2024

On July 3 a contract was signed. The pipeline will enable 10 billion cubic meters (BCM) of natural gas to go to Iran each year. The gas will then be shipped to Iraq. The pipeline will be 125 km long. The price that will be paid by Iran has not been stated. Iran has the second largest reserves of ...

US donates USD 2.3 billion and rumors of NATO donations of USD 43 billion
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 04 Jul 2024

On July 3 the US Defense Secretary said that it would make the donation for security assistance. Ukraine is pleading with allies for more air defense. The latest aid package consists of air defense interceptors and anti-tank weapons. In June 2024 the Netherlands and an unnamed EU country gave Ukr...

Downside surprise on inflation
TURKEY · Report · 03 Jul 2024

Consumer prices rose by a less than expected 1.6% in June (vs. 2.2%), with the 12-month rate declining visibly to 71.6% from 75.4% in May, helped, as anticipated, by base effects. Producer prices rose by 1.4% in the month (June 2023: 6.5%), with a much sharper decline in the 12-month PPI rate to ...

Lula said he will only appoint the next BC president when he is sure it will be quickly confirmed in the Senate, Campos Neto said Lula’s criticisms make it harder to control inflation, and the Tax Reform Working Group should submit its final report
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 03 Jul 2024

President Lula gave another interview to the press and addressed topics of market interest. He said he will only appoint the next Central Bank president when he is certain it will be quickly confirmed by the Senate. The appointment process goes through the Economic Affairs Committee and then the ...

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