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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Will the Bank of Jamaica pivot avoid a policy mistake? IMF lauds resilience just as Hurricane Beryl approaches
JAMAICA / BAHAMAS · Report · 01 Jul 2024

In an interesting piece of timing, on Friday, the Bank of Jamaica (BOJ), in its own words, “pivots to easing monetary policy” just as the IMF lauded Jamaica’s “resilience” reforms literally the day before Beryl was upgraded to a hurricane. The BOJ cited as its reason that the May 2024 annual i...

Election Monitor VI: SA launches its 7th Administration; Ramaphosa’s second term is a new chapter in a rapidly shifting political structure
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 01 Jul 2024

After weeks of socio-political anxiety and following intense political horse trading, President Ramaphosa unveiled the composition of his 2nd Cabinet Ministers. Unlike his first term, his party could not secure sufficient voter support to govern alone. Instead, the ANC decided to invite a wide ra...

Business and consumer sentiment less optimistic in Q2 2024
PHILIPPINES · Report · 01 Jul 2024

Notwithstanding the country’s real economic growth of 5.7 percent in Q1 2024, business sentiment in the Philippines turned out less optimistic in Q2 of 2024, with the overall confidence index (CI) recorded at 32.1 percent from 33.1 percent in Q1 of the current year, as reported in the Business Ex...

Pace of bond issuance remains steady, MoF confident in reaching its fiscal target
ISRAEL · Report · 01 Jul 2024

1. Private consumption growth has decelerated but the level of consumption remains strong. 2. The pace of government bond issuance remains steady, and the MoF is reporting robust tax revenues in June. 3. We expect a rate-hold decision next week on elevated geopolitical risks.

Hello early elections, bye-bye ESP?
TURKEY · Report · 30 Jun 2024

The main opposition leader Ozel wants early elections before or by end-2025. If Erdogan turns down the offer, CHP will not support any early election legislation. This means, Erdogan must either take up Ozel on his offer or scramble to find 360 votes in the Grand Assembly to send a new constituti...

Pace of government debt issuance remains steady, tax revenues remain strong in June
ISRAEL · In Brief · 30 Jun 2024

Geopolitics: Israel continues to operate in Gaza targeting specific areas. The missile barrage from Lebanon has decreased somewhat compared to the previous week. There is a vague renewed initiative for a cease-fire with Hamas, according to the US. Although the Supreme Court ruled that the ultra-o...

Ukraine signs defense pacts
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 29 Jun 2024

On June 27 President Zelensky was in Brussels where he signed defense pacts with the EU, Lithuania and Estonia. The agreements deal with 9 areas of security and defense policy.  The EU's statement affirmed its unflagging support for Ukraine for as long as it takes. This is presumably designed to ...

Bad news everywhere
COLOMBIA · Report · 28 Jun 2024 · 2 responses

The nuts and bolts of the 2024 MTFF have little to do with the much-required process of fiscal consolidation. It turns out most of the negative rumors we’d been hearing were true. A root problem behind the mess was over-optimistic initial revenue estimates. The central government originally expec...

The view from Washington
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 28 Jun 2024

I was invited to a conference organized by the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) in Washington to launch its new China initiative. The conference featured Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell, along with Matt Pottinger, former Deputy National Security Advisor under Trump; Bonnie Lin of the th...

Lula spoke about the Minas Gerais federal debt in an interview, he also discussed the 2026 presidential election, and Congress should continue to discuss payroll tax relief next week
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 28 Jun 2024

President Lula (PT) gave another interview to the press and addressed topics of interest to the market. According to him, the bill that will create an alternative for the debt of Minas Gerais should be completed within fifteen days. Regarding 2026, Lula said that the only scenario in which he cou...

GULF WEEKLY: Oman’s GDP improved in Q1, PIF advanced 5.5GW of solar power, the UAE issued a $1.5bn bond, Bahrain’s foreign minister visited Iran
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 28 Jun 2024 · 1 response

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * EY and Mizuho are the latest firms to receive licenses for Regional HQs in Riyadh. * A PIF-led consortium signed $3.3bn in power purchase deals for 5.5GW in solar plants. * Aramco announced plans to buy a 25% stake in Por...

Jun CCA Highlights: Armenia cuts rates, inflation rears its head in Armenia and Azerbaijan, Georgia's 1Q24 GDP growth impresses, higher tariffs take a toll on Uzbekistan's inflation
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 28 Jun 2024

We comment briefly on the key macro events in the CCA region in Jun: Armenia: Central bank cuts refinancing rate by 25bpts to 8.00 percent Armenia: Inflation returns in May Armenia: Net remittances drop in Apr Armenia: Budget posts small deficit during Jan-May Armenia: Foreign reserves inc...

High hopes and mixed signals
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 28 Jun 2024

Costa Rica’s political conditions have stayed the same for the past two years, with strained relationships between President Rodrigo Chaves and members of the congressional opposition now adding to Chaves’ renewed criticism of the Comptroller General. Recall that during these past two years the p...

Russia blocks 81 media outlets
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 28 Jun 2024

On June 25 Russia announced that it was doing this. The media outlets are based in 25 of the 27 EU member states. Moscow did this because in May 2024 the EU banned several Russian newspapers and TV channels. The European Union said it did this because these outlets are controlled by the Russian s...

Much Ado About Nothing
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 27 Jun 2024

Decree 12.079 has been published, establishing the legal framework for changing the methodology of inflation target measurement: instead of verifying whether the target has been met (i.e., whether the observed inflation was within the tolerance range defined by the National Monetary Council, CMN)...

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