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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Putin offers ceasefire with Ukraine if Ukraine retreats from 4 regions
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 15 Jun 2024

On June 14 Putin said the ceasefire would start today if Kyiv accepted his demands. Russia annexed 5 regions of Ukraine. It totally controls Crimea but only partly controls the other 4. If Ukraine withdraws from the remainder of these 4 regions that it currently controls, Moscow will stop fightin...

NBU cuts prime rate to 13.0% amid increased confidence in financial inflows
UKRAINE · In Brief · 15 Jun 2024

The NBU Board cut the prime rate once more by 0.5 ppts to 13.0%, effective June 14. This marks the third prime rate cut since the start of the year and the seventh decrease since July 2023, when the NBU began its easing cycle. In a press release, the NBU cited still-low inflation (+0.6% m/m and 3...

Electricity tariff adjustments and CPI impact
CHILE · In Brief · 14 Jun 2024 · 1 response

After the social unrest at the end of 2019, electricity rates to households were frozen. This freeze has resulted in a shortfall for the electricity companies of approx. $6 billion. Since October 2019, the electricity CPI has only increased by 1.8%, contrasting with the 25.8% rise in the headline...

G7 announces loan for Ukraine and interest from frozen Russian assets to be used for Ukraine
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 14 Jun 2024

On June 13 Biden and Zelensky signed a 10-year security agreement. Zelensky said this will lead to Ukrainian membership of NATO. However, that is far from sure. The agreement covers arms supply and production. Biden said 5 countries have promised to provide Ukraine with more Patriot air defense s...

GULF WEEKLY: Oil rises but demand forecasts diverge, Qatar and Bahrain appoint ambassadors, Saudi and Kuwait GDP
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 14 Jun 2024

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Brent crude rebounded to about $83, above its level before the recent OPEC+ meeting. * The gap between IEA and OPEC demand forecasts widened to 1.3m b/d this year and 5.6m in 2029. * There was confusion about the position...

GDP grew by 5.4% y-o-y in 1Q24
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 14 Jun 2024

Rosstat reported that the Russian GDP grew by 5.4% y-o-y in 1Q24. The agency published just statistics on the production side. Statistics by end-use will appear later. The published figure appeared generally in line with our forecast as we expected GDP to expand by 4.0% (a bit faster looks also p...

The economy slowed through April while Mulino builds his team with pro-market figures. We discuss the Mulino-Martinelli relation and its implications. The July election of the new Legislative Directorate is key for reforms.
PANAMA · Report · 14 Jun 2024

First quarter data, as well as data from April, indicate that exports and total investment fell, while consumption and imports increased. The IMAE showed a decrease of 2.1% in March and YoY cumulative growth of 0.04% in the first quarter. We forecast 2% real growth for the remaining quarters and ...

Balance of payments looks stable
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 14 Jun 2024

The Russian Central Bank published its flash estimate of the 5M24 balance of payments, and it looks as though its trends remain sustainable. In 5M24, the current account surplus reached $38.1 bln. It accounted for $5.1 bln in May alone, i.e., slightly lower than in April ($7.1 bln). Exports in Ma...

Government with near-absolute power embraces reform
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Report · 14 Jun 2024

President Luis Abinader in the May 19th elections not only managed to win reelection with 57.5% of the vote, but his PRM party also achieved the necessary control in Congress to pass pending economic reforms, without the need to negotiate with the opposition -- including majority for a constitu...

Rate cut still difficult to price in without a cease-fire
ISRAEL · In Brief · 14 Jun 2024

Sharp downward inflation surprise in May It is rare we see such a below-expectations inflation print. Inflation came in at 0.2% m/m (consensus in Israel was 0.5%-0.7%, we were at the high end), holding steady at 2.8% y/y similar to last month. The main “culprit” for this surprise was flights abro...

The government is looking into cutting spending, Pacheco may submit a bill on state debt, and the CCJ will discuss the autonomy of the Central Bank
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 14 Jun 2024

The government is internally discussing measures to cut spending. This discussion involves both the ministries of Planning and Finance. Minister Simone Tebet stated that the issue of expenses does not involve only spending cuts. The agenda will be busy next week. The Senate President, Rodrigo Pac...

Webinar Replay - South Africa’s 2024 Post-Elections Review: Expectations vs Outcome
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 14 Jun 2024

Visit our calendar page to watch the replay of our webinar on the results of South Africa's elections and their key policy implications. What will South Africa's near-term governance trajectory look like and will the public sector's ability to deliver be restored? What is the outlook for economic...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Armenian central bank sticks to rate cuts, for now
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 14 Jun 2024

Against a background of robust economic activity but still subdued inflation, the central bank implemented its fourth rate cut this year, lowering the key refinancing rate by 25bpts to 8.00 percent. Cumulative cuts since the start of the easing cycle last May have now amounted to an impressive 27...

Kazakhstan economic growth moderates amid evolving foreign trade
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 14 Jun 2024

The Bureau of National Statistics reported that in 5M24, the short-term indicator (a monthly proxy measure of the overall economic activity) grew by 3.7% y-o-y, i.e., down from 3.9%, 4.7%, 5.2% y-o-y in 4M24, 1Q24, and 2M24. In 2023, it grew by 5.1%. Even though not a complete set of monthly econ...

Bahceli’s casus belli to Erdogan
TURKEY · In Brief · 13 Jun 2024 · 1 response

In a week widely anticipated to be headlined by the second Erdogan - Ozgur Ozel (CHP chair) summit, MHP leader Devlet Bahceli stole the limelight by issuing an unprecedently strong casus belli to Erdogan. The Erdogan-Ozel meeting went better than I anticipated, with leaders resolving to continue ...

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