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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

One-sided ‘truce’ ends: martial law expected
UKRAINE · In Brief · 01 Jul 2014

On June 30, late in the night president Poroshenko cancelled one-sided ‘truce’ with terrorists. Military actions resumed promptly. It was the only correct decision in the situation Ukraine faces now. Russia used the ‘truce’ only to bring more tanks, artillery and ammunition to separatists’ groups...

Jokowi Still Likeliest to Win
INDONESIA · Report · 30 Jun 2014

Executive Summary Campaigning is reaching a frenzied pace in the run-up to the July 9 presidential election. Although campaigning is officially supposed to cease by July 5, that deadline is likely to be ignored, with both leading parties continuing to pursue their agendas, albeit far more quie...

Inflation Report: Acknowledging Higher Inflation
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 30 Jun 2014

Central Bank publishes systematically its assessment of the probability that inflation will exceed the upper bound of the target interval in the current year and, more recently, since the end of 2009, publishes the same probability for the following year. This estimate for 2014 is 46% (in the ref...

Weekly Tracker: June 29 -July 6
TURKEY · Report · 29 Jun 2014

Executive Summary We upgrade the odds of an Erdogan victory on the second round of presidential balloting to 80% from 65% previously. We also announce our bet for the new PM. Could Erdogan still loose? Read on! A new Bill to advance the Peace Process gained the endorsement of PKK leader Ocalan, t...

One-sided ‘truce’: first blunder of Poroshenko?
UKRAINE · In Brief · 29 Jun 2014

Last week president Poroshenko announced truce for the sake of peaceful resolution of conflict at the East. In general, this step was perceived skeptically (just as a nod towards the West) since none believes in Kremlin’s desire to resume peace. Putin wants Ukraine to be destabilized and peaceful...

One Step Closer To The Markets, One Step Farther From The Left
ECUADOR · Report · 27 Jun 2014

Executive SummaryThe controversial results –to say the least --of the last sectional elections of February 2014 paired with a tough fiscal situation brought back the pragmatic Correa to the surface once more. After taking a dig to the markets for the last seven years, he brought Ecuador back to W...

Banks are Required to Pay Again
HUNGARY · Report · 27 Jun 2014

Executive Summary The 10-year story of FX-denominated lending by domestic banks and non-bank financial intermediaries to households is approaching its end. These loans, predominantly borrowed in Swiss francs in order to obtain substantially lower interest than HUF rates, became a nightmare from t...

​Upping the ante… once more.
ARGENTINA · In Brief · 26 Jun 2014

Economic Minister Axel Kicillof, just announced that the government made today the transfer to pay the coupons of the Discount bonds which mature on Monday. In total, the payment was close to close to 1bn USD, out of which USD 539nm where transferred to the BoNY to be used to honor debt under US ...

Government Spending Disappoints
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 26 Jun 2014

Early news releases report a disappointing 9% decline in government non-interest expenditues for the month of May. This followed a mere 0.5% growth in spending last month which had been attributed to seasonal slowdown during Lent. Although there is still June performance to consider, weak public ...

Few Sweet Words
CHILE · Report · 25 Jun 2014

​Executive Summary It’s still chilly in Chile. Growth is ever more meager, with no sign of a quick recovery. To the fall in investment we now can add a slowdown in consumption. Though investment has apparently hit bottom, there are clear signs that consumption is still falling. Adverse exter...

Reform Conflict Shifts to the States
MEXICO · Report · 25 Jun 2014

Executive Summary New complications have emerged in Mexico’s efforts to adopt the secondary laws needed to implement constitutional reforms affecting the energy and telecommunications sectors. The PAN cited two issues last week as it walked out of talks aimed at reaching consensus proposals on pr...

Signs of an Inefficient Fiscal Policy
MEXICO · Report · 25 Jun 2014

Executive Summary Last week’s report on aggregate supply and demand data for the first quarter of 2014 revealed a considerable reduction (-8.5%) in public gross fixed capital formation that stands in sharp contrast to the 33.7% increase registered in public sector budgeted physical investment dur...

What Does A “Good” Chinese Transition Look Like?
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 24 Jun 2014

Executive Summary Any plausible definition of an orderly Chinese rebalancing during President Xi Jinping’s administration must include much lower GDP growth for many years. How quickly Beijing is able to rein in credit growth is the main variable determining whether or not the adjustment will be ...

Winning the War is the Only Way Out
UKRAINE · Forecast · 24 Jun 2014

Executive Summary Ukraine’s future now depends upon a rapid resolution to the military conflict with Russia.The situation is still very dicey, but at least three developments suggest Ukraine is well positioned to win.First, the separatists continue to lose support in the region, due to their blat...

June MPC: A Minor Surprise
TURKEY · Report · 24 Jun 2014

The Monetary Policy Committee cut its key interest rate, the weekly repo rate, by a higher than expected 75 bps (versus consensus of a 50 bps cut) down to 8.75%, but left the O/N corridor intact at 8%-12% (see chart). While the cut is more aggressive (25 bps more) than we had envisaged, the fact ...

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