GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights

On December 1 Zelensky made the suggestion amidst Ukrainian claims that Russia is preparing a full-scale invasion. Moscow appears dismissive of the need for talks. It says that the Ukraine conflict is an internal Ukrainian affair. Russia says it has never aided pro-Russian rebels there, and the R...

Consumer credit growth remains strong, albeit slows moderately in October

RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 01 Dec 2021

The Central bank reported that the stock of bank credits to households grew by 1.65% m-o-m in October and reached R25.6 trln. In September credits grew by 1.73% m-o-m versus 1.93% m-o-m in August. Out of this amount, mortgages accounted for R11.4 trln and grew m-o-m by slightly more than 2.0%. Th...

Russia grabbing the headlines, but tapering matters more

UKRAINE · Report · 30 Nov 2021

Ukraine’s economy is performing below expectations, with a disappointing 2.4% of GDP y/y growth in Q3 despite a historically bumper grain crop. To large extent, this is due to postponed harvesting, and there should be a proper upsurge in agroproduction—and GDP growth—in Q4. Still, good harvests a...

Omicron and the Gulf: The hit to oil is fiscally manageable, as are health risks

GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 30 Nov 2021

The emergence of yet another worrying Covid variant has raised concerns in the Gulf, as it has globally. No cases have been identified in the region yet, but its international connectivity, including as a hub for travel from Africa, does present vulnerabilities, as has been the case for previous ...

Another interest rate step from the MNB: the corridor was raised today

HUNGARY · In Brief · 30 Nov 2021

In a brief statement today, the MNB said that at today's meeting, which was not one of its monthly rate-setting meetings by the way, the Monetary Council raised the interest rate corridor significantly and made it asymmetrical. The base rate was left unchanged at 2.1%.The new corridor looks like ...

Well-organized Chavista minority beats disorganized majority opposition

VENEZUELA · Report · 30 Nov 2021

As we had forecast, the Maduro coalition took most of the seats under contention despite its having won a minority of the votes: with only 46% of the votes, it obtained 19 of 24 governorships and 205 of 335 mayorships. More important is what these elections tell the opposition about the relative ...

Growth composition changes in Q3

TURKEY · Report · 30 Nov 2021 · 1 response

Economic activity expanded by 7.4%, y/y, in Q3, down from (a heavily base effect-driven) 22% in Q2, while in calendar- and seasonally-adjusted terms, GDP growth quickened to 2.7%, q/q, from 1.5% (revised up from 0.9%) in Q2.

The Precatórios PEC will be put to a vote in the CCJ, André Mendonça’s confirmation hearing in the CCJ has been scheduled for Wednesday, and President Bolsonaro joins the PL

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 30 Nov 2021

At 9 a.m., the Constitution and Justice Committee of the Senate should vote on the Court-ordered payments (Precatórios) PEC. Changes to the text can still take place through amendments. Rodrigo Pacheco said that if the CCJ concludes voting on the PEC today, the vote in the plenary may take place ...

Turkmen President puts his son in charge of oil and gas as the country runs short of food

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 30 Nov 2021 · 1 response

The announcement was made on November 25 in the main government newspaper. Serdar Berdymukhamedov is already the deputy prime minister with responsibility for economic affairs. He is in the Turkmen Parliament. His latest appointment is yet another sign that Serdar is his father's heir. Serdar is ...

Ukraine de-oligarchization

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 30 Nov 2021

On November 24 the cabinet passed a 20-point plan to implement the law on oligarchs. It is also reforming the judicial system. The objective is a diminution of oligarchic influence in politics. The National Security and Defense Council shall create a registry of oligarchs. The National Council on...

The Tax Reform passed under the authority of the law

ECUADOR · In Brief · 29 Nov 2021

Ironically, it was the UNES party that allowed the tax reform to become an effective bill, to be applied next January. The bill passed by the authority of the law without changes since legislators could not reach an agreement either for its approval, its rejection or its archival. Legislators who...

Economics: November data shows further slowing as the country faces new inflation pressures

MEXICO · Report · 29 Nov 2021

In recent months indicators have been reflecting a slowing of economic activity relative to the first half of this year, a scenario we had long incorporated into our GDP estimate for full-year 2021. The news published in November only added to that picture. In many respects economic activity c...

Synthesis of the Brazilian Economy

BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 29 Nov 2021

The recent discovery of a new Covid variant in Africa, called Omicron, has made hopes and plans for a more relaxed and festive holiday season uncertain. The large number of new mutations seems to indicate an increased dissemination pace, although there is no evidence yet of more severe symptoms....

Exports keep improving

INDONESIA · Report · 29 Nov 2021

As predicted, Indonesia saw a small retreat in its economic growth in Q3 2021. The economy reported an increase of 3.51% from the same period in the previous year. Compared to the previous quarter, the Indonesian economy grew by 1.55%. This is the second positive growth rate for the economy since...

Moro gains traction as a "third candidate" and other weekly topics

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 29 Nov 2021

This will be a hectic week in Brasilia. The Senate will continue to discuss the Precatórios PEC. It will also analyze appointments, including that of André Mendonça for the STF. The STF continues to analyze the constitutionality of the Sanitation Framework. Jair Bolsonaro joins the PL. In the eco...