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President Bolsonaro pardons Daniel Silveira following his conviction in the STF, third way parties will hold a meeting on Monday to discuss a possible alliance, and the House may vote on the Auxílio Brasil provisional measure next week
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 22 Apr 2022

Federal Deputy Daniel Silveira was sentenced to 8 years and 9 months in prison by the Supreme Federal Court (STF). As questionable as the pardon may be, it is permitted by the Constitution. Politically, it pleases Bolsonaro’s supporters, but it definitely aggravates the institutional conflict bet...

US sanctions Russians suspected of circumventing sanctions
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 22 Apr 2022

On April 21 the US said the sanctions were on individuals and entities that have been evading sanctions. On the list is the media mogul Konstantin Malofeyev, Deputy Governor of the Central Bank of Russia Ksenia Yudayeva and a former Deputy Prime Minister. The US has introduced blocking sanctions ...

Hint of a recovery of private investment
INDIA · Report · 22 Apr 2022

Private investment is unusually important in shaping macroeconomic conditions in India. From 2011/2012 onward, a critical measure of private investment – the stock of investment projects at hand, expressed in real terms – has been declining. For the first time, the recent data suggests that this ...

A cornered government
ECUADOR · Forecast · 22 Apr 2022

The good news of the higher-than-expected GDP growth of 4.2% y/y, which clearly speaks of a robust (albeit jobless) economic recovery in 2021, came amidst the dense political turmoil caused by dubious legislative processes, another massacre in the jail system, the discovery of a Ponzi scheme amon...

Constitutional Convention update
CHILE · Report · 21 Apr 2022

Chile's Constitutional Convention is progressing in its design of a new document, to be put to the people in a referendum on September 4. The political system it is designing seems to be based on misguided notions of where power is today, and where it should be. Polls show that the public holds...

Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 21 Apr 2022

As the western countries dramatically cut exports to Russia, demand for FX fell considerably, and the ruble appreciated in recent days to around the R/$80 level (though, the ruble still remained volatile). The ruble appreciation was also backed by capital controls and a reduced appetite to take m...

​Syrian refugees, Ziraat-Germany and presidential polls
TURKEY · In Brief · 21 Apr 2022

The speed and heft of developments in the political arena makes it almost impossible to fit all analyses in a humble Weekly. Thus, the I’m selecting certain topics which are important on their own, but not so salient as to deserve a separate essay in the Weekly to cover in mid-week briefs. This M...

Brief analysis of the April IMF projections for Panama
PANAMA · In Brief · 20 Apr 2022

The Panamanian economy will grow 7.5% in 2022 and 5.5% in the medium term, close to its potential. The level of real GDP would be 1.8% higher than the pre-pandemic year of 2019. If these forecasts are correct, the GDP in 2022 at current prices would be USD 70.5 billion (+10.8% from 2021) and the ...

The 3rd day of decisive battle for Donbas: no great progress in offensive observed
UKRAINE · In Brief · 20 Apr 2022

The big battle for Donbas was "officially" started on Monday, April 18, when President Volodymyr Zelenskiy reported in public that fighting has intensified. In fact, the intense efforts of Russians to push the frontline in the East and South have not eased over the last two weeks. However, intens...

Inflation w-o-w slows
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 20 Apr 2022

Rosstat reported that inflation w-o-w in seven days ending April 15, decelerated to 0.20% from 0.66% during the previous week. Food prices generally continued to rise albeit more slowly, however weekly deflation was recorded for many products in the non-food segment, such as some types of consume...

Expect an unchanged sterilisation rate at tomorrow's deposit tender
HUNGARY · In Brief · 20 Apr 2022

Given the forint's recent appreciation to EURHUF 371, with which we believe the MNB must be perfectly satisfied, investors should not expect any further increase of the 1-week deposit rate, the effective sterilisation rate, from its latest 6.15% level tomorrow.Going forward, the next event to fol...

The Federal Audit Court should analyze the privatization of Eletrobras today, employees of the National Treasury expected to go on strike, and the president of Solidariedade formally gives his support to former President Lula
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 20 Apr 2022

Minister Vital do Rego has already stated that he will request a 60-day review for the case. Thus, the process will not be completed today. The government is hoping the review will take as little time as possible. Employees of the National Treasury will hold a new strike for a salary raise. On th...

A quick note on China's macro data
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 20 Apr 2022

China has issued a flurry of policies designed to rejuvenate the economy – a 25-basis-point RRR cut last week, 23 bank-focused policies Monday…What is unusual is how restrained the reaction has been. Between lockdowns, Covid, the Ukraine situation, continued friction with the U.S, and the tech cr...

Shooting across the border between Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 19 Apr 2022

On April 14 the foreign ministers of the two Central Asian countries met to talk about tensions along their frontier. 7 people were shot; both civilians and border guards. The governments are seeking to de-escalate the predicament.There were demonstrations outside the Tajik Embassy in Kyrgyzstan....

There will be negotiations regarding alliances for the upcoming presidential election, the Senate should vote on the bill to regulate the cryptocurrency market today, and public servants’ strikes continue to cause issues for the government
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 19 Apr 2022

The presidents of the PSDB, União Brasil, Cidadania and MDB will meet on April 25 to discuss a possible alliance. Paulinho da Força, president of the Solidariedade, initiated conversations with Eduardo Leite and Aécio Neves. Ciro Gomes said that he intends to resume conversations with the PSD and...

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