GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * There were hints of progress in Iran nuclear talks today, although the US is upping the pressure. * MBS completed his tour of the Gulf in Kuwait today. The most visible immediate outcome of the tour were agreements signed...

The Auxílio Brasil program is expected to begin issuing payments today, the Senate approved the extension of the payroll tax exemption, and the House continues to analyze the Precatórios PEC

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 10 Dec 2021

The Auxílio Brasil payments of R$ 400 may have a positive effect on the government’s ratings. The latest poll shows that negative ratings dropped by 3%, positive ratings remained stable and the regular rating increased by 4%. The approved payroll tax exemption bill will now go for presidential sa...

Russian macro forecast: emphasis on inflation and rates as growth returned and “booster” sanctions offered

RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Forecast · 09 Dec 2021

Rosstat reported that 2Q21 GDP was up by 4.3% y-o-y, implying that the economic growth could vary between 4.6% and 4.7% in 9М21, which is in line with our previous 2021 GDP growth forecast, which ranged from 4.2% to 4.3%. In 2022 GDP growth will naturally decelerate. What has changed signific...

Deepening relationship between Belarus and Russia

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 09 Dec 2021

On November 30 Minsk announced that it recognizes Crimea as Russian. Belarus had vacillated on this issue for years. Minsk was even a venue for negotiations between Russia and Ukraine. Belarus appeared to try to be equidistant between the West and Russia. This was never convincing since Belarus i...

South Africa records its fifth consecutive current account surplus in Q3

SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 09 Dec 2021

Current account data released by the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) today indicates that, in the third quarter of 2021, South Africa’s current account registered its fifth consecutive surplus since the third quarter of 2020. The surplus however narrowed from R311 billion in the second quarter ...

The current account surplus to be record high in 2021

RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 09 Dec 2021

The CBR published its flash estimate of the 11M21 current account surplus and the trade balance. The former widened from $94.4bn in 10M21 to $111.4bn. The latter increased to $162.8 bn. In 2021 as a whole, the current account will likely reach $128bn (if not more) therefore beating the historical...

The NBU lifts policy rate by 0.5 ppt up to 9.0% amid concerns on capital outflow

UKRAINE · In Brief · 09 Dec 2021

The NBU Board increased policy rate by 0.5 ppt up to 9.0%. The decision was not obvious: in polls analysts split 50/50 with near half of observers (including us) anticipated policy rate to remain unchanged. However, the decision went in line with previous communication of the NBU which articulate...

Where are the jobs?

PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 09 Dec 2021

The October rounds of the Labor Force Survey (LFS) highlight a key weakness in the economy’s recovery from the pandemic: lack of quality jobs. The impact on household incomes and consumption will hamper the recovery. Between 2019 and 2021, the labor force grew faster than the working age populati...

The 1-week depo rate has moved further up today

HUNGARY · In Brief · 09 Dec 2021

The MNB called its usual weekly 1-week deposit tender with a 3.3% interest rate, up by another 20 bps from last Thursday. The Bank collected HUF8194bn of HUF liquidity through this tender, which provided banks with unlimited access, as usual.In addition, today is the value date for the first reve...

The Precatórios PEC was partially enacted, the exchange rate framework and MP 1063/2021 were approved, and the Federal Audit Court postponed the analysis of the privatization of Eletrobras to next Wednesday

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 09 Dec 2021

With the partial enactment of the Precatórios PEC, R$ 65 billion of fiscal space has been created in the 2022 Budget, which should be used, in part, to finance the Auxílio Brasil program. The points changed by the senators will be analyzed in the House next Tuesday. Other important victories for ...

New German Chancellor is an unknown quantity for Russia

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 08 Dec 2021

On December 8 Olaf Scholz became the Chancellor. Angela Merkel had held this post since 2005. She grew up in communist East Germany and speaks Russian fluently. She had a better rapport with Putin than any other EU leader. The two agreed on the Nord Stream 2 Pipeline. Merkel was one of the only f...

Consumer lending rates climbed, weekly inflation statistics surprised

RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 08 Dec 2021

The CBR published October statistics on consumer lending and deposits rates that continued to climb (but not evenly and proportionally) as the regulator moved its key rate up. As the key rate was hiked last time by 75 bps at the end of October, the effect of this particular rate hike is yet to be...

CPI-inflation at 14-year record high in November

HUNGARY · In Brief · 08 Dec 2021

November CPI-inflation was reported this morning at 0.7% mom, 7.4% yoy, the latter up from 6.5% in October. Core inflation was 0.7% mom, 5.3% yoy (up from the previous 4.7%), non-fuel inflation was 0.6% mom, 5.9% yoy (up from 5.2% in October). Fuel prices rose by 2% mom, 37.7% yoy, and their yoy ...

Lira and Pacheco reached an agreement on the Precatórios PEC, today will be a busy day in Congress, and the Federal Audit Court analyzes the privatization of Eletrobras

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 08 Dec 2021

Today, the Precatórios PEC is expected to be partially enacted. The parts of the PEC that were changed by the senators will be analyzed in the House next Tuesday, December 14. Lira and Pacheco's goal is to complete the analysis of the PEC in both Houses next week. The Senate should vote on the ne...

Putin and Biden hold virtual summit on Ukraine

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 07 Dec 2021

On December 7 the two presidents spoke for 2 hours. The main topic was the Ukraine situation. The US is worried by the buildup of up to 175,000 Russian troops near Ukraine. Moscow insists that this is nothing menacing. The expert consensus is that there will not be a full-scale invasion and possi...