GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights

Today's 1-week deposit tender has brought about to the second MNB interest rate decision this week, which is kind of a nice performance in itself.This time around, the 1-week deposit rate, which is now the effective sterilisation rate, rose by 30 bps, to 3.6%. This was no surprise at all, after M...

The Precatórios PEC has been concluded in Congress, André Fufuca made changes to the Refis bill, and the vote on the Federal Budget has been postponed until next week

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 16 Dec 2021

The House finalized the vote on the PEC, which will be promulgated today, at 2 p.m. There was only one change in relation to the text that was approved in the Senate. The vote on the Refis bill is scheduled for today. The rapporteur, André Fufuca, made changes to the text to reduce the resistance...

Done - and now what?

TURKEY · Report · 16 Dec 2021 · 2 responses

The CBRT/MPC reduced the policy rate (the weekly repo rate) by another 100 bps today to 14%, broadly in line with expectations (or shall we say, as feared?) bringing the cumulative cuts since September to 500 bps (see chart).

Germany expels 2 Russian diplomats over murder

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 16 Dec 2021

On December 14 Berlin said the two were involved in the murder of a Chechen commander who was killed in 2019. Germany says that the Chechen was killed by order of the Russian government. Russian national Vadim Krasikov was sentenced to life imprisonment for the murder.The Kremlin denounced the tr...

Russia's health checks on foreigners might lead to many foreign execs' leaving

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 16 Dec 2021

Moscow announced that foreigners resident in Russia will be subjected to a medical test every 3 months. EU companies are lobbying against this, saying it will cause many people to leave. The law is to take effect on December 31. Foreigners will be tested for tuberculosis, coronavirus, drug use, H...

GDP up by 4.6% y-o-y in 9M21 pointing to a deceleration in 2022

RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 15 Dec 2021

Rosstat reported that Russia’s nominal GDP reached R33.9 trln in 3Q21. In 4Q21 the nominal figure will be even higher so that GDP in 2021 as a wh0le will exceed R128 trln, as was reported in our recent forecast. The 9M21 GDP was up by 4.6% y-o-y - having increased by 4.3% y-o-y in 3Q21 and by 7.4...

Inflation w-o-w staying low for a second consecutive week in December

RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 15 Dec 2021

Rosstat reported that in seven days ending December 13, inflation w-o-w was again at 0.06%, i.e., the same as a week before. In two weeks of December inflation reached just 0.12%, which was in stark contrast to much higher inflation seen in October and November (inflation YTD reached 7.64% by mid...

Inflation in November at low end of expectations

ISRAEL · In Brief · 15 Dec 2021

Low CPI print in NovemberInflation in November declined by 0.1% m/m and increased by 2.4% y/y (up slightly from 2.3% last month). Expectations were mostly in the 0.0%-0.1% range (our forecast was -0.1%). Both fresh produce prices (-4.6% m/m on warm weather) and clothing prices (-0.8%) surprised o...

The first round of voting on the Precatórios PEC was approved in the House, Sen. Antonio Anastasia’s appointment to the TCU was approved, and the Senate may vote on the edits to the bill providing for tax exemptions when purchasing vehicles

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 15 Dec 2021

Two edits submitted by the PT to the Precatórios PEC were rejected. Three more edits need to be analyzed – one from the PT and PSOL, one from the Novo and another from the DEM. The goal is to conclude the first and second rounds of voting today. The parts of the text that are changed will return ...

Leaders of Azerbaijan and Armenia to talk in Brussels

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 15 Dec 2021

On December 15 President Aliyev and Prime Minister Pashinyan met with the President of the European Council. Four hours of talks took place. This is the 5th time that the two leaders have met in the past 12 months. The two countries are discussing re-establishing transport and communication links...

Saudi budgets for a rare surplus and Oman sees its deficit narrowing

GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 14 Dec 2021 · 2 responses

* The estimated 2021 Saudi deficit of -2.7% of GDP, the least since 2013, is larger than our forecast largely because of a sharp drop in revenue remitted from sovereign wealth funds. * The oil price assumption for 2022 has been hiked to about $65 (from $50 in the September pre-budget statement),...

The House is scheduled to vote on the Precatórios PEC today, the Senate discusses the appointment to the TCU and the Centrão is positioned to overturn the presidential veto on the electoral fund

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 14 Dec 2021

The House wants to approve the part of the Precatórios PEC that came from the Senate and promulgate what has already been analyzed by the senators. Only what is modified in the House would return to the Senate for further analysis. Three names are in the running for the Senate’s appointee to the ...

The MNB raised the base rate & interest rate corridor, ended quantitative easing

HUNGARY · In Brief · 14 Dec 2021

The Monetary Council held its regular monthly rate-setting meeting on December 14, slightly earlier within the month than usual, because of the upcoming holiday season. Essentially, it did three things: it discussed the quarterly inflation forecast, took interest rate decisions and discussed poli...

Castillo’s government weakens; growth likely to moderate in 2022‒23

PERU · Forecast · 14 Dec 2021

Popular support for the government of President Pedro Castillo continues to dwindle, at a surprisingly rapid pace. Last week the government averted an impeachment process in Congress by only six votes. This perilous state has developed only four months after Castillo stepped into office. Without ...

What happens in Barinas doesn’t stay in Barinas

VENEZUELA · Report · 14 Dec 2021

Barinas State is the home state of former president Hugo Chávez. It has been governed by the Chávez clan since 1998. On November 21, the Unity Platform (Plataforma Unitaria, or PU) candidate and a Popular Will (Voluntad Popular, or VP) party member, Freddy Superlano, won the race for governor...