GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights

After weakening past the 18-mark against the USD, the TL appreciated dramatically after President Erdogan’s statements this evening (link here). Although markets are too illiquid to attribute too much significance to this very sharp movement, it appears to have been triggered by Erdogan’s announc...

Inflation Heading Toward the Target and Contraction of GDP in 2022

BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 20 Dec 2021

In the minutes of the last COPOM meeting and in the most recent Inflation Report, the Central Bank left no doubts: monetary policy will remain in significantly restrictive territory for as long as it takes to bring inflation back to the target. However, its projections indicate GDP growth of 1% i...

3Q GDPgrowth revised up to +2.7% y/y

UKRAINE · In Brief · 20 Dec 2021

GDP growth in 3Q 2021 was reported +2.7% y/y, up from the +2.4% y/y estimated previously, according to the Statistics Office release today. Household consumption remained strong in 3Q, with +9.0% y/y growth, as did investment in fixed assets, with +14.5% y/y growth. The key point that pulled GDP ...

Robust rebound, with political complications

CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 20 Dec 2021

Costa Rica’s Christmas season promises more economic activity, as is usual at this time of year, while unemployment figures are slowly falling. The virtual removal of mobility restrictions and more flexibility for gathering have been key measures, favored by a good pace of vaccination, while new ...

An ominous collection of threats: Omicron, microchips, inflation, fiscal policy and the EU

HUNGARY · Report · 20 Dec 2021

Unlike in previous months, there is some important good news to report on Covid. The local 4th wave of the disease seems to have passed its peak in late November. At present, all leading Covid indicators are improving, essentially thanks to the re-enforcement of face masks and to more effective v...

Inflation in Israel remains low compared to most countries

ISRAEL · Report · 20 Dec 2021

Highlights: Low inflation in November: *Headline inflation in November inched higher to 2.4% y/y from 2.3%, in line with our forecast but at the low end of consensus. *Core inflation has remained stable at 2.1% since September. *Housing rental prices accelerated in November, offset by a ...

Will Beijing turn the taps back on?

CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 20 Dec 2021

The Evergrande default took the market by surprise as central government support (at least until recently) was widely expected. Since then, China has issued mixed signals about its plans for handling the Evergrande crisis. On one hand, the central bank cut the Required Reserve Ratio, releasing 1 ...

Boric wins. What now?

CHILE · In Brief · 19 Dec 2021

Gabriel Boric’s victory in Sunday’s run-off election is an amazing political and personal story, from the time he emerged a as a student leader over ten years ago, to his surprise win in his coalition’s primaries last July. And now, at 35 years of age, with the largest amount of votes any winner ...

Heads Up: Anything can happen this week, but probably nothing will

TURKEY · In Brief · 19 Dec 2021 · 2 responses

On Friday, the main Turkish stock index collapsed suddenly, triggering two trading halts, as anecdotal evidence emerged of increased cash withdrawals from banks. It is difficult to imagine Turkish financial markets finding an equilibrium level this week, as first economy czar Mr. Nurettin Nebati,...

Inflation in Israel remains low compared to most countries

ISRAEL · In Brief · 19 Dec 2021

Low inflation in November Headline inflation in November inched higher to 2.4% y/y from 2.3%, in line with our forecast but at the low end of consensus. Core inflation has remained stable at 2.1% since September. Housing rental prices accelerated in November, offset by a price decline in clothing...

Tensions and discussions over Ukraine

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 19 Dec 2021

On December 17 a Ukrainian soldier was killed by pro-Russian rebels. Russia has reportedly massed 100,000 troops on Ukraine's eastern frontier. NATO analysts said this could reach 175,000 in January.Moscow laments that NATO has spurned its offer to de-escalate the tensions. NATO said it will not ...

Some initial consequences of the political power shift in Congress

ARGENTINA · In Brief · 17 Dec 2021

Both the Supreme Court’s declaring the reform of the Council of the Magistracy unconstitutional and the Lower House’s rejection of the 2022 budget are two clear signals of the power shift in the Congress after the mid-term elections.Although the underlying risk is that of a radicalization of the ...

GULF WEEKLY: GCC summit, Saudi Q3 GDP, Israeli PM visits UAE

GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 17 Dec 2021 · 1 response

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * OPEC and IEA have concluded Omicron won’t have much of an impact on oil demand. * The GCC summit was a fairly standard affair, with the most notable features being King Salman’s absence and a softer approach to Iran in th...

The House approved the bill to create a new debt installment program for micro and small companies, Congress meets today to analyze presidential vetoes, and Congress will vote on the 2022 Federal Budget next week

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 17 Dec 2021

The House approved the bill that creates a new debt installment program for micro and small companies participating in the Simples Nacional, including individual micro-entrepreneurs (MEI) and companies in judicial recovery. An agreement was not reached for the approval of the Refis, which will ha...

Election Day minus two

CHILE · Report · 17 Dec 2021 · 2 responses

This Sunday’s runoff presidential vote Chile will close a long electoral year, after having elected, over the course of 2021, a constitutional convention, local and regional governments, primary contenders, deputies and senators, and presidential candidates. Now it’s down to just two, José Antoni...