GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights

China’s yuan has strengthened steadily for much of 2021. Capital inflows remain strong, while exports have maintained relative strength. This is likely to continue in 2022. For 2022, China’s RMB policy will confront a number of challenges. First is the outlook for exports, particularly to the ...

Dozens killed in Kazakhstan as Russia airlifts troops in

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 06 Jan 2022

On January 6 officials reported that scores of people had been shot dead by the police in Almaty. The president said on January 5 that terrorist gangs had taken over part of the city and the airport. The airport has since been retaken by the authorities. The government says that at least 13 polic...

First time since late November: no rate hike at today's 1-week deposit tender

HUNGARY · In Brief · 06 Jan 2022

The 1-week deposit rate, which currently plays the role of the effective sterilisation rate, remained unchanged at 4% at today's tender.This is very telling. In late November, when the sterilisation rate was separated from the base rate again, the MNB said that its decisions to set the 1-week dep...

Covid's 4th wave is over, but Omicron is coming through the gates

HUNGARY · In Brief · 06 Jan 2022

There is good news and bad news once again. The former is that daily new cases, hospitalisations, patients in serious condition, virus test hit ratios have all fallen back substantially from the heights of the local 4th wave, seen in November. The latter is that there is no peace on the Covid fro...

The State Capture Zondo Commission Report is out- finally

SOUTH AFRICA · In Brief · 06 Jan 2022

The year began with a bang on the South Africa's political economy stage. This is a critical year for SA's medium term political outlook as the ANC is heading for its mid-term elective congress in December 2022 at which the next leadership of the Party will be elected, and by implication the next...

The Palace strikes back

TURKEY · In Brief · 06 Jan 2022

It has become cliché to say so, but tensions in politics escalated further, as Erdogan threatened protestors with violence, while press accounts report an indictment against CHP’s popular Istanbul mayor Mr. Ekrem Imamoglu. These strikes are Erdogan’s last bullets in the area of intimidating the o...

Kazakhstan appoints new PM as protests turn violent

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 05 Jan 2022

On January 5 Alikhan Smailov became Prime Minister. He is 49 years old, a native Kazakh and he was born in Almaty. Smailov served as Finance Minister before being First Deputy Prime Minister. He is a member of the ruling party: Nur Otan (Light of the Fatherland). Smailov is seen as a safe pair of...

Kazakh Cabinet resigns in a bid to appease protesters

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 05 Jan 2022

On January 5 the Prime Minister and the entire cabinet resigned. Demonstrations have erupted in a dozen cities due to an eye watering Liquid Natural Gas (LNG) price hike. There have been over 200 arrests. LNG is used to run vehicles in the western part of the country. Protesters are irate that a ...

Kazakhstan roiled by fuel protests

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 04 Jan 2022

On January 2 protests broke out in Mangystau over the brupt rise in the price of liquefied natural gas (LNG). Demonstrators demanded lower prices and for the government to resign. People have spent all night on squares in Zhanaozen and Aktau. There were up to 6,000 protesters in Aktau which is un...

Cumulative Q1-Q3 2021 fiscal deficit reported at 4.1% of GDP

HUNGARY · In Brief · 04 Jan 2022

At first glance, this sounds as good news. The corresponding-period figure for 2020 was 4.8%, so the deficit ratio fell moderately. And we are talking about the Eurostat-methodology, accrual terms data for the whole government sector, that is the single most important fiscal macro indicator. So i...

2022 starter kit for Turkish Politics

TURKEY · In Brief · 04 Jan 2022

While we were away, “business as usual” prevailed in Turkish politics.For those who really need a starter kit, “business” is discretionary government running amok, uncertainty rising by the day, as well as unbearable static electricity in the air. It sounds disingenuous to write a Market Brief, t...

Biden assures Ukraine of unstinting support

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 03 Jan 2022 · 1 response

On January 2 the US President spoke to his Ukrainian counterpart by phone. Biden said that the United States will react strongly if there is a Russian invasion. He repeated that the US supports Ukrainian independence and territorial integrity. Biden reminded Zelensky that the Minsk Agreement must...

Russia’s pandemic/political update: seeking points of no return

RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 03 Jan 2022

As the restrictions imposed by the Russian authorities in 2021 to counter the pandemic were moderate, selective, and short-lived, the country’s economic performance turned out to be better than expected. It now looks as though the 2021 GDP growth well exceeded 4.0%. Economic activity looked stron...

Low inflation in Israel allows the BoI to be patient

ISRAEL · Report · 03 Jan 2022

1. The BoI sees inflation under control and stresses the luxury of being patient with monetary tightening, despite strong activity and employment growth. 2. Hi-tech services exports continue to surge, supportive of shekel appreciation. 3. Private consumption growth has shifted more to...

Despite strong activity and employment growth, the BoI sees low inflation ahead

ISRAEL · In Brief · 03 Jan 2022

The policy rate statement today had a slightly more hawkish tone as data released since the previous rate decision has been rather robust, with strong employment growth in November (92k new employees) and accelerating activity. and private consumption. On the other hand, the possible downside ris...