GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights

Performance in 2021 exceeded expectations in terms of economic growth, the exchange rate and accumulation of international reserves. The same was not true, though, for inflation, which failed to stay within the target range, while the NFPS deficit ended at around 3% of GDP, similar to the level c...

Three polls will be published this week, the public servants issue remains, and the government may make a decision on the debt refinancing program for micro and small businesses and individual micro-entrepreneurs (MEI)

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 10 Jan 2022

On Wednesday, the Banco Genial/Quaest Pesquisas poll results should be released. On Thursday, the Exame Magazine/Instituto Ideia poll results and on Friday, the XP/Ipespe poll results should also be released. The polls are expected to show that the polarization between former President Lula (PT) ...

Politics: In 2022 AMLO looks to consolidate his 4T and ensure it endures beyond 2024

MEXICO · Report · 10 Jan 2022

With the 2024 elections just two years away, President Andrés Manuel López Obrador is increasingly focused on ensuring his legacy through consolidating his Fourth Transformation (4T) project. The next battle is over the presidential recall referendum, pushed not by voters discontented with AMLO’s...

Economics: The Mexican economy faces key challenges in 2022

MEXICO · Report · 10 Jan 2022

The most important economic challenges facing the Mexican economy in 2022 are rising inflation and sluggish growth. These will be coupled with the weakening of public finances and the uncertainty fueled by how the government’s energy policy will end up being defined. The first challenge is inf...

The ANC acknowledges the deterioration of the Party during its 110th anniversary celebrations, but will it enact the necessary reforms?

SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 10 Jan 2022

In sticking with tradition, and despite South Africa’s fourth wave of Covid-19, fueled by the Omicron variant, the governing African National Congress (ANC) had its annual celebration of the founding of the party (January 8, 1912). Since 1972, the party has used these annual celebrations as an op...

Business/consumer sentiment remains elevated, so far

ISRAEL · Report · 10 Jan 2022

1. Both business and consumer sentiment remained fairly strong in December, despite Omicron, but January will probably witness some decline. 2. Wage growth moderated in October, supportive of modest inflationary pressure. 3. The expansion of the monetary base slowed in 2021, following ...

Industrial output and prospects seem improving

HUNGARY · In Brief · 10 Jan 2022

The performance of the industrial sector has been a genuine weak point lately, because of the global supply problem related to semiconductors, hitting car manufacturing and to a lesser extent the electronics industry.Against this backdrop, the latest output and PMI data reflects material improvem...

Omicron watch 2

PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 10 Jan 2022

In the span of one week, new Covid19 cases spiked from a 7-day average of less than 2k as of Jan 2 to over 16k as of Jan 9. In the latest batch of 48 Covid19 cases sequenced, the Philippine Genome Center detected the Omicron variant in 29 of the samples, making it the dominant strain. Although Me...

Business/consumer sentiment remains elevated, so far

ISRAEL · In Brief · 09 Jan 2022

Business and consumer confidence remains strong in DecemberThe Business Tendency Survey for December reflects expectations of further expansion in all sectors, except for the hotel sector (due to incoming flight restrictions).The Poalim consumer confidence index improved slightly in December and ...

2022: Something has to give

TURKEY · Report · 09 Jan 2022 · 2 responses

The politics section of the first Weekly report of the year is dedicated to establishing a road map for 2022, as well as going over our main scenario and predictions. President Erdogan and his AKP-MHP alliance didn’t receive a windfall in polls despite massive fiscal largesse, as rampant poverty ...

Kazakh former security chief arrested

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 08 Jan 2022

On January 8 Karimov Massimov was taken into custody and accused of being a traitor. He was once Prime Minister and head of the internal intelligence agency (NBK) since 2016. On January 5 he was fired as chairman of the NBK by President Tokayev. Several years ago it had even been rumored that Mas...

Russian macro: recent Rosstat revision promises stronger growth in 2021-2022

RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 07 Jan 2022

Rosstat announced at the very end of December 2021 that it had revised Russia’s annual GDP statistics for 2019-2020. The quarterly GDP numbers, however, have not been upgraded either for 9M21 or previous periods. Therefore, the revised annual numbers do not match the available quarterly statistic...

GULF WEEKLY: Dubai & Oman budgets, Bahrain Q3 GDP, record Covid cases

GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 07 Jan 2022

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Daily covid cases hit a new record in the GCC but so far there have been very few recent deaths. * OPEC+ stuck with its taper but unrest in Kazakhstan has pushed oil up to $82. * PMIs remained strong in Qatar and UAE but...

Politics will drive economic performance in 2022

CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 07 Jan 2022

Special points to highlight in this issue: * The 20th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party is scheduled for October or November of this year. This makes 2022 an especially important year politically for the Beijing leadership, making it unlikely that they will tolerate a poor econ...

Kazakhstan: uneasy calm returns

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 07 Jan 2022 · 1 response

On January 7 the president said that order has largely returned. Russian troops have been deployed there at Kazakhstan's request. The government announced that 26 armed criminals have been killed. Roughly 2,300 people have been arrested. About 2,000 people have been injured. President Tokayev sai...