GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights

In a surprise move - at the very least, we were surprised - the MNB has not raised its sterilisation rate further today, calling the usual weekly deposit tender with an unchanged 6.15% fixed interest rate. This worked as an outright invitation for EURHUF to try itself above the 380 level, followi...

Coalition stability weakens

ISRAEL · In Brief · 06 Apr 2022

The stability of the coalition weakens One member of Benet’s party Edit Salman, announced her resignation from the coalition. This will weaken the narrow majority of the coalition (from 61 members to 60), although the “Arab List” could support the coalition without actually joining the coalition....

Finance Minister Dr. Nigel Clarke auditions for world's best as William and Kate arrive in Jamaica. His stated agenda - "Reform with ambition"

JAMAICA / BAHAMAS · Report · 29 Mar 2022

Jamaica’s budget debate was concluded last week by Finance Minister Dr. Nigel Clarke on Tuesday, March 22, just as Prince William and his wife Kate were arriving in Jamaica as part of their three-nation royal visit of Belize, Jamaica and The Bahamas, all of which still have the Queen as their hea...

Lula and Bolsonaro advance while the others stall and other weekly topics

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 28 Mar 2022

This will be a busy week due to the deadline for party affiliations and resignations. Bolsonaro will likely build a new ministerial team. Up to eight governors are expected to resign from their positions to run for another elective office in October. This week's Talking Points: * Eduar...

Commodity Prices, Terms of Trade and the Real Exchange Rate

BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 28 Mar 2022

In 2019, Brazil’s current account deficit was US$65 billion, while in 2021 it reached only US$24.5 billion. Our projections for 2022 indicate there should be a small surplus. The greatest contribution to this result will come from the balance of trade, whose surplus will benefit from the rising i...

Long-term RMB trend remains stable

CHINA · Report · 28 Mar 2022

Economic recovery has been relatively strong, thanks largely to export and fiscal policy support. In January-February, industrial output rose 7.5% y/y, up 3.2 pps from December 2021. Investment was up 12.2% y/y, up 7.3 pps from 2021. Real estate investment increased 3.7%, having stopped its previ...

The Bank of Israel prepares markets for aggressive tightening

ISRAEL · Report · 28 Mar 2022

1. Deputy Governor Abir suggested that more aggressive tightening is likely, due to inflation acceleration. 2. The labor market is rapidly returning to pre-Covid employment levels, considered full employment. 3. Hi-tech service exports continue to expand rapidly, supportive of shekel...

Research trip reflections: the impact of a changing Saudi Arabia and differing approaches to the oil windfall

GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 28 Mar 2022

I've just completed a 3-week 6-country tour around the GCC to take a sounding of the mood as Covid cases and restrictions ease. I had dozens of meetings with academics, officials, journalists, business leaders, investors and others, whose time, insights and hospitality I greatly appreciate. Trave...

The Bank of Israel prepares markets for aggressive tightening

ISRAEL · In Brief · 27 Mar 2022

The Deputy Governor suggests aggressive tightening ahead At a conference on Thursday, Andrew Abir said: “In view of recent developments in inflation and the increase in expectations, the process of monetary tapering may be more rapid than we thought.” Clearly, a rate hike on April 11th is to be e...

Uptick in fighting between Armenia and Azerbaijan

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 27 Mar 2022

Three Armenian soldiers were killed on March 25 in skirmishes with Azerbaijan. The two countries fought a war in 2020 that Azerbaijan won. There are Russian peacekeepers keeping the Armenians and Azerbaijanis apart. This is supposed to ensure that neither side fires on the other for fear of hitti...

Ukraine abroad, electoral bill at home

TURKEY · Report · 27 Mar 2022 · 1 response

As the Ukraine war stretches into extra innings with a horrifying human toll, Turkey is inexorably sucked into the black hole. At the diplomatic front, all three sides seem to be testing her loyalty. Regarding the West, Erdogan failed the first litmus test by rejecting a presumed US suggestion to...

The first month of the war has passed: recapturing of occupied lands in progress

UKRAINE · In Brief · 26 Mar 2022

The first month of the war has passed. Apparently, Kremlin miscalculated readiness of Ukrainians to defend their freedoms. If the eastern part of the country might had had some illusions about Russia before 2014, they had a chance to see an excellent demonstration what “Russian world” is in occup...

GULF WEEKLY: Houthis bombard KSA, Sharjah markets sukuk, Oman boosts capex

GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 25 Mar 2022 · 1 response

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Aramco will increase capex but not its dividend. * Saudi Arabia suffered a barrage of Houthi attacks, including damage to an LPG refinery. The US has finally restocked KSA’s patriot missiles, despite bilateral tensions. ...

Russia: a brief market watch

RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 25 Mar 2022

As the oil price has moved higher, in recent days hovering around $120/bbl, the ruble bounced back and has seemingly stabilized. Accordingly, banks became less dependent on the liquidity provided by the CBR. Still, the ruble fluctuated in a wide range amid the unstoppable news flow. An idea to st...

Polls show Bolsonaro’s popularity is recovering, Eduardo Leite should step down as governor of Rio Grande do Sul today, and there will be major political moves next week

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 25 Mar 2022

Since the government has announced measures that have not yet had an effect on public opinion, such as the early access to the 13th salary installment for retirees and pensioners and the withdrawals of up to R$ 1,000 from the FGTS, there is room for the distance between Bolsonaro and Lula to narr...