GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights

The markets have reacted positively to Gabriel Boric’s cabinet announcement. Is this enthusiasm warranted? Yes and no.On the one hand, even though the average age of the new ministers seems low (49), they are all quite experienced. The new Foreign Minister, for example, has a distinguished record...

GULF WEEKLY: UAE shrugs off attack and signs swap with Turkey, Kuwait’s negative outlook maintained, Airbus spat with Qatar deepens

GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 21 Jan 2022 · 2 responses

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Oil hit a high since 2014 of nearly $90, and forecasters expect little impact from Omicron. * Saudi issued record investment licenses in Q4 but US firms are facing frustrations there. * South Korea’s president visited the...

Expect robust growth in 2022

CHILE · Forecast · 21 Jan 2022

Main assumptions of our base scenario forecast: * In coming years there will be no major political, social or institutional crisis, and there will be some degree of coordination between the government and Congress. * Given the composition of Congress, there will be no major refor...

President Bolsonaro is negotiating a PEC with Congress to reduce the price of fuel and electricity, today is the deadline for him to sanction the 2022 Federal Budget, and a new poll on the presidential race will be published next week

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 21 Jan 2022

President Jair Bolsonaro confirmed that he is negotiating a Constitutional Amendment Proposal (PEC) with Congress to reduce the price of fuel and electricity. The matter has support in the House, the Senate and the Executive Office. The proposal should be presented to Congress in February. In rel...

Turn and face the strange

CHILE · Report · 21 Jan 2022 · 2 responses

IMACEC growth slowed in November, consistent with the fading of consumption momentum. Nevertheless, activity continued to grow above potential, contributing to inflationary pressures. Services stood out, but the emergence of the Omicron variant of COVID-19 constitutes a risk. We maintain a relati...

Interpreting China’s economic results for 2021

CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 21 Jan 2022 · 1 response

Special points to highlight in this issue: * China’s reported GDP growth for 2021 of 8.1 percent was better than expected, mainly because of a very poor fourth quarter that came in nonetheless well above expectations. * There are enough questions about the data, however, that we w...

Squeezing the provinces

CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 21 Jan 2022

The Evergrande default and the property crackdown show a new willingness by Beijing to force deleveraging even as the economy slows in order to avoid a financial crisis. The main solution to the Evergrande default is to force debt workouts onto the backs of provincial governments. This is part of...

Russian Duma to debate Donbas status as France proposes security pact with Russia

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 21 Jan 2022

On January 21 it was announced that the Russian parliament will hold a debate next week on recognizing Donbass and Luhansk as independent countries. That is despite some pro-Putin politicians saying that such a move would cause a full-scale war with Ukraine. Donbass and Luhansk are Russian-speaki...

Central Government deficit ends at 2.7% of GDP in 2021

DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 20 Jan 2022

The Ministry of Finance reported that the Central Government deficit was 2.7% of GDP in 2021, lower than the 3.0% originally contemplated in the 2021 Public Budget approved in 2020. This reduction is due to an significant increase in tax revenues, 12.7 % higher than initially planned. Although sp...

The NBU hiked the policy rate by 1.0 ppt up to 10.0% amid Russian risks

UKRAINE · In Brief · 20 Jan 2022

The NBU Board increased the policy rate by 1.0 ppt up to 10.0% today. Consensus was that the increase would be 0.5 ppt but after the recent sell-off of Ukraine, a 1.0 ppt hike was not a surprise at all. Russian risks are driving withdrawal by non-residents from local UAH-denominated state bonds, ...

The MPC pauses, as expected

TURKEY · In Brief · 20 Jan 2022 · 1 response

The Monetary Policy Committee/CBRT kept the policy rate unchanged at 14% today, as expected, and as the Bank itself had signaled earlier. The statement continues to cast inflation largely as a transitory affair, related, most notably, to unhealthy pricing behavior in the F/X market -- which needs...

Minister Rosa Weber meets with federal public servant leaders to discuss salary raises, the PSB and PT consider a possible alliance, and a new poll on the presidential succession is expected today

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 20 Jan 2022

The public servant leaders will ask for a clarification on the government’s deadline to grant the raise to other groups before being prevented by electoral legislation. They should also ask that, if a raise is granted, it be given to all groups. Bolsonaro has said that it will not be possible to ...

Unchanged deposit rate and a temporary measure to fix basic food prices

HUNGARY · In Brief · 20 Jan 2022

The MNB has left the fixed interest rate for 1-week deposits for today's weekly tender unchanged at 4%. This means that there has not been any sterilisation rate increase since the start of this year.This decision seems to substantiate the suspected rule of thumb that the Bank refrains from raisi...

The public servants’ mobilization in favor of a salary raise had low participation, the Minister of the Economy discusses Rio de Janeiro’s Fiscal Recovery Plan, and the left moves against the Lula-Alckmin alliance

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 19 Jan 2022

The government leader in the House called the event "weak". The workers of the Federal Revenue Service did not join the movement, which was a surprise. Representatives of civil servants will meet with the Minister of the Supreme Federal Court (STF), Rosa Weber, on Thursday, to clarify the legalit...

The federal budget posts surplus despite several amendments of expenditures

RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 19 Jan 2022

According to Minfin’s preliminary budget execution statistics, the federal budget posted a surplus of around R0.5 trln, which should be slightly below 0.4% of GDP. The figure looks lower than we expected, but it only happened because expenditures were suddenly increased to R24.8 trln. A couple of...