GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights

The government confirmed in two separate presentations that Argentina had reached an agreement with the IMF. First, in a recorded speech, President Alberto Fernández gave a primarily political message, which seemed directed at reassuring his Kirchnerist allies. In a follow-up press conference, he...

Russia: a brief market watch

RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 28 Jan 2022 · 1 response

As was expected, the Russian financial markets were very volatile in January as the noise about the “scheduled” Russia's invasion of Ukraine became louder and more annoying in recent weeks. One can expect volatility to remain elevated also in February regardless of whether the go-ahead takes plac...

GULF WEEKLY: Fitch downgrades Kuwait, Adnoc bond pending, Houthis strike UAE again

GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 28 Jan 2022

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Oil keeps climbing, but OPEC+ is not expected to accelerate its tapering plan next week. * Iran nuclear talks are looking more hopeful, including mediation by Qatar on a prisoner exchange. * The Saudi sovereign borrowing...

Consumer credit growth slows in December, as household deposit growth strengthens

RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 28 Jan 2022

CBR reported that household deposits increased in December by 5.5% m-o-m (5.8% if escrow accounts added) as the key rate was hiked amid accelerated inflation. In 2021 as a whole, household deposits grew by 13.3% as a result.At the same time, banks’ credit to households (mortgages and consumer cre...

Higher coronavirus infections than ever in Russia

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 28 Jan 2022

On January 26 Russia broke its own record for the 6th day in a row. There were 74,000 infections but only 657 deaths. Omicron is surging.St Petersburg has banned children from theaters, movie theaters, sports venues and museums until February 13.The Mayor of Moscow said that employers must have 3...

Bolsonaro grants raise to public school teachers, Sérgio Moro discloses his earnings during his time working at Alvarez & Marsal, and Congress resumes activity next week

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 28 Jan 2022

According to Law 11738/08, Article 5: “The national professional salary for public teachers of basic education will be updated annually in January, starting in 2009”. If the amount is not included in the budget, some changes will have to be made. This raise tends to increase the pressure from oth...

The South African Reserve Bank starts 2022 where it ended off in 2021 – by hiking interest rates

SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 28 Jan 2022

The South African Reserve Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) met this week for its first 2022 meeting and announced its interest rate decision yesterday. In line with the Reuters' poll of economists’ consensus, the Reserve Bank raised the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points. As such, t...

Agreement with the IMF finally in sight?

ARGENTINA · In Brief · 27 Jan 2022

At the close of yesterday’s newspapers, the local press announced that Argentina had reached an agreement with the IMF and that it would be officially announced later today, Friday, Jan 28. Even though we would prefer to read the actual agreement to give a more reasoned opinion, if confirmed, thi...

No surprise at the 1-week deposit tender today: the interest rate went up to 4.3%

HUNGARY · In Brief · 27 Jan 2022

Just as we predicted two days ago, the 1-week deposit rate was raised by the MNB by 30 bps today. No great achievement on our part: as the Monetary Council raised the base rate by 50 bps on Tuesday, and they said that the two rates will need to converge from now on, it was quite easy to find out ...

The Confax meets today to decide on ICMS tax freeze, the Banco Modal poll yesterday had surprising results, and the Superior Electoral Court published the time allotment for free party advertising on TV and radio

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 27 Jan 2022

The Confaz meets today to decide on whether to extend the ICMS tax freeze for another 60 days. In a statement, 21 governors asked that, within this period, structural solutions to stabilize the prices of fuel be established, considering the terms of Bill No. 1472 from 2021. The Banco Modal poll w...

Hopeful forecasts, dubious strategies

TURKEY · Report · 27 Jan 2022

The CBRT released the first Inflation Report of the year. The Bank raised its year-end inflation forecast for 2022 by 11.4 percentage points (pps) to 23.2% (midpoint of 18.6% and 27.8%) from 11.8% in the October report. The 2023 forecast was also raised, albeit slightly, by 1.2 pps to 8.2%. The B...

NATO rejects Russian demands and asks for diplomacy

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 27 Jan 2022

On January 6 NATO said it would not rule out Ukraine and Georgia being admitted nor would it remove troops and weaponry from countries that joined NATO since 1999.NATO says there are up to 147,000 Russian troops near the Ukrainian Border. But "near" in this case can mean hundreds kilometers away....

Private consumption growth slows in Q421

ISRAEL · In Brief · 27 Jan 2022

Private consumption slowed in Q421, with credit card purchases up only 1.5% saar following growth of 8.6% in Q321. This is due mostly to the outbreak of the Omicron virus towards the end of the quarter (although purchases of services did increase by 12% saar in Q421). December witnessed a 2.3% m/...

4Q GDP rose 7.7%

PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 27 Jan 2022

As we expected, the Philippine economy left 2021 with a bang, growing 7.7% yoy in 4Q and sustaining a 3.1% seasonally-adjusted quarter-on-quarter growth. GDP growth was led by household consumption, with increased vaccination, fewer Covid-19 infections and easing of restrictions propelling a 7.5%...

Two important events to follow in February: the GAFI evaluation and the nomination of board directors to the Panama Canal Authority. Contagions increase but pension reform stalls.

PANAMA · Report · 26 Jan 2022

We expect in February the decision regarding the evaluation of the country's advance (or lack thereof) in matters related to the prevention of money laundering. In a face-to-face preliminary meeting, Panama will present what the government considers to be its recent improvements in legislation re...