GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights

Because the Maduro government has not showed progress in displaying at-home capacity to investigate alleged crimes against human rights in Venezuela, the International Criminal Court is about to launch its own such investigation. So, things look dark for justice in Venezuela. And now recent desig...

The House may vote on the national nursing salary floor, the União Brasil party should decide whether it will remain in the third-way alliance, and former President Lula expected to officially launch his presidential candidacy on Saturday

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 02 May 2022

As an agreement has not been reached on the source of funding for the national nursing salary floor bill, the vote will most likely be postponed. If the matter is put to a vote, it will likely be approved — even without a source of funding. Currently, the trend is for the União Brasil party to le...

Is it game over? (4)

PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 02 May 2022

But for the casting of votes on Monday, May 9, the presidential and vice-presidential elections appear to be over. PulseAsia today released its survey of voter preferences conducted from April 16-21. The results were largely unchanged compared with last month. In the race for the presidency, Mr. ...

Bond issuance will likely continue to decline

ISRAEL · Report · 02 May 2022 · 1 response

1. Government bond issuance declined in May, a trend that is likely to continue in the remainder of the year. 2. Economic indicators have been generally positive, including a tightening labor market, supportive of steady monetary tightening. 3. We expect high inflation in April (0.9% ...

GULF WEEKLY: Erdogan visits Saudi, Sharjah on Negative outlook, Oman plans privatizations

GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 29 Apr 2022

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Moody’s restored stable outlooks to Gulf banking sectors due to improved operating conditions. * Saudi Arabia ordered 50k+ Lucid EVs, and colorful details emerge of its 2018 talks with Tesla. * Erdogan visited Saudi Arabia...

A pre-holiday recap

TURKEY · Report · 29 Apr 2022

The Turkish markets will be closed through Wednesday next week, because of the Eid al-Fitr or Ramadan Holiday. In this note, we provide a quick update on the latest state of affairs in politics, and review some of the recent data releases on the econ side. The conviction of Osman Kavala to lif...

Webinar Replay - Latin America: Global shocks and local politics

COLOMBIA · Report · 29 Apr 2022

Understand how global shocks and local political landscapes are shaping the outlook for Brazil, Colombia, Chile, and Peru. Visit the calendar page to watch the replay of the webinar featuring our analysts discussing how the region will balance the inflation and growth shocks created by war.

Essential CIS Politics: April 2022

CIS POLITICS · Report · 29 Apr 2022

* The Ukraine conflict continues, although Russia has changed its focus from Kyiv to Donbas. On April 22, a Russian general was quoted stating Russia's war aim in this conflict. General Minnikaev clarified what has long been suspected: that one of the main goals is to establish a land corridor t...

A promising start to South Africa’s economy in 2022 following a robust recovery in 2021, but risks have intensified

SOUTH AFRICA · Forecast · 28 Apr 2022

• South African growth: South Africa’s economy underwent a robust recovery of 4.9% in real GDP during 2021 from 2020’s deep contraction of 6.4%. On top of growth coming from a low base as well as the recovering global economy acting as a tailwind, South Africa’s growth was also propelled by the s...

Reasons to be pessimistic

COLOMBIA · Report · 27 Apr 2022

Colombia’s Fuel Price Stabilization Fund deficit is projected to reach nearly 3% of GDP in 2021-2022, with a peak annualized deficit of COP 26.1 trillion this year. The Autonomous Committee of the Fiscal Rule published an analysis that is both timely and courageous: it warns that structural solut...

Fidesz won easily and faces all the economic and foreign policy mess currently developing

HUNGARY · Forecast · 27 Apr 2022

The governing Fidesz-KDNP alliance won the parliamentary election by a surprisingly large margin early this month. Their victory was no surprise at all, but the continuation and even a slight increase of their constitutional majority was entirely unexpected. Fidesz’s win has removed a great deal ...

The Argentine economy: a forecast for 2022 and a guess for 2023

ARGENTINA · Forecast · 27 Apr 2022

It is extremely difficult to forecast the Argentine economy for the remainder of the presidential term of Alberto Fernandez, in spite of the macroeconomic program that is being supported by the IMF through a 45 billion dollar EFF. The main difficulties originate in the new global circumstances cr...

Neither Uribe nor Petro, and of course not Duque

COLOMBIA · In Brief · 27 Apr 2022 · 1 response

In a text called “Today's Colombia”, former President César Gaviria set out to “paint the court” where he believes the government starting on August 7 will play. He starts out by admitting that his Liberal party made historical mistakes in the second half of the 1990s that led to a right-wing pha...

The House may vote on the Auxílio Brasil provisional measure today, the third way parties met again yesterday to define the candidate selection criteria, and the TCU has decided to resume the trial of the privatization of Eletrobras on May 18

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 27 Apr 2022

The movement in favor of letting the MP expire because it has already fulfilled its purpose did not move forward. In other words, the measure will be put to a vote. The president of the House, Arthur Lira, is calling for the payment amount to be set at R$ 400, and the government is betting on Lir...

Russia is ready to cut trade with the EU even more

RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 27 Apr 2022

As Russia announced that the supply of gas to Poland and Bulgaria stopped, it looks as though the Russian authorities are ready to cut foreign trade with the EU even more as the country no longer needs that much euro liquidity. The euro is seen as a second-tier currency in Russia, given that the ...