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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Monetary policy strategy in a time of DM tightening
INDIA · Report · 16 Jun 2022

The RBI is juggling three objectives: a desired level of the exchange rate, cheap financing for the fiscal deficit, and inflation. In recent months, there have been capital outflows and the sale of reserves as part of currency policy. DM tightening will exacerbate these pressures. There may be ca...

Demand for dollars pushes inflation up
VENEZUELA · Report · 16 Jun 2022

The doubling of the monthly rate of inflation in May to 9.2 percent from 4.4 percent in April was driven by bolivar depreciation that occurred despite the most intense effort to sterilize bolivars carried out by the BCV since the current Exchange Rate System (Sistema del Mercado Cambiario, or SMC...

Three top EU politicians visit Kyiv
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 16 Jun 2022

On June 16 the President of France, the Chancellor of Germany and the Prime Minister of Italy visited Kyiv by train. It is the first time any of them visited Ukraine since the war began. The French President intends to visit the site of an alleged Russian atrocity. Ukraine is deeply disappointed ...

St Petersburg International Forum opens with few delegates
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 16 Jun 2022 · 5 responses

The forum began on June 15. There are almost no Westerners there. The President of Belarus attended as did the Taliban despite the Taliban still being designated a terrorist organization in Russia. The presidents of Kazakhstan and Armenia are there. The Chinese President will join by videolink. T...

Economic performance stable in 5M22
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 16 Jun 2022

The Kazakh Bureau of National Statistics reported that the short-term economic indicator (a monthly proxy for GDP) was up by 5.9% y-o-y in 5M22. Industrial output grew by 4.4% y-o-y over the same period. This number pointed to some deceleration both in the mining and the manufacturing, given that...

Slide Presentation: Gulf Countries - Spending the oil windfall
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 16 Jun 2022

Access the pdf fil​e of the presentation​ from the GlobalSource Partners' webinar "Gulf Countries - Spending the oil windfall". With the Gulf managing this century's third oil boom differently amidst a complex geopolitical landscape, GlobalSource Partners' Gulf Countries Analyst Justin Alexander ...

MNB sterilisation rate up by 50 bps today
HUNGARY · In Brief · 16 Jun 2022

The MNB raised its 1-week deposit rate, the effective sterilisation rate, by 50 bps, to 7.25% at today's tender. This has broken with the last few months' practice of raising the deposit rate by a standard monthly 30 bps regardless of where inflation and EURHUF are going. By this, the MNB is kind...

Russia’s y-o-y inflation slows amid w-o-w deflation
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 15 Jun 2022

Rosstat reported that deflation of 0.14% was registered in seven days ending on June 10. The MTD consumer prices fell by the same 0.14%, and the YTD inflation decreased to 11.64%. As in inflation in June 2021 was 0.69% m-o-m a further y-o-y disinflation is expended this month. Consumer prices are...

Rate hike of only 0.25% likely in July, due to low CPI
ISRAEL · In Brief · 15 Jun 2022

Downward inflation surprise in May Inflation in May increased by 0.6% m/m (4.1% y/y), below market consensus of 0.6%-0.8% (we were at the high end of expectations). The big surprise (for us) came from the clothing item which increased by only 2.2% (-6.0% y/y, while in the US prices are up 5.0%!),...

The House approved the basic text of PLP 18, the Senate approved the PEC on biofuel competitiveness, and the Joint Budget Committee approved the rapporteur’s preliminary report on the Budget Guidelines Law
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 15 Jun 2022

The vote on PLP 18 was stopped due to technical difficulties but will resume this morning. Changes to the text still need to be put to a vote. The measure that establishes a trigger for states to receive compensation for lost state tax revenue may change. The Senate also unanimously approved Cons...

Kilicdaroglu-Erdogan in tactical battle, as opposition lays out economic agenda
TURKEY · In Brief · 15 Jun 2022 · 2 responses

Finally, I’m getting some serious and credible views from Erdogan and Kilicdaroglu about election timing and candidacy. These are not final, but they allow me to draw a more concise view of how the presidential election race will shape. As importantly, the Structural Reform Commission of the oppo...

Russian millionaires emigrating
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 14 Jun 2022 · 2 responses

Analysis by Henley and Partners investment migration consultancy on June 14 said that 15% of Russian millionaires will go abroad by the end of 2022. Western sanctions and a changed atmosphere in Russia are prompting the exodus. Paradoxically, the report also noted that billionaires had mostly mov...

Biden to visit Saudi Arabia and meet other Gulf leaders
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 14 Jun 2022

The US has confirmed that President Biden will visit Saudi Arabia in July, meeting with all the Gulf heads of state and also, significantly, with the Saudi crown prince. We are not expecting any major concessions from Saudi Arabia on human rights or oil supplies, although there may be some gestur...

An Example of Explicit Populism
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 14 Jun 2022

It is not unreasonable for a government, despite fragile fiscal fundamentals, to increase spending on income transfers in favor of the people most affected by a shock like the pandemic. However, populist measures that allocate scarce resources with the objective of temporarily raising the preside...

The 5M22 federal budget surplus widens
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 14 Jun 2022 · 1 response

The Finance Ministry reported that in 5M22 the government collected in the federal budget 48.1% of the annually targeted revenues, i.e., R12.0 trln from R25.0 trln. Total revenues in May reached R2.0 trln, which is fewer than in the previous months as the ruble looked too strong and the ruble-den...

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