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Russia’s pandemic/political update: So they say in the news
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 06 May 2022

For yet another month the pandemic has not been a big issue either in the media or in the minds of ordinary Russians, as both the daily incidence rate and the death toll continued to fall (the former fell to around 5K in recent days from a peak of around 200K in mid-February). It was another irre...

A surprise rate hike
INDIA · Report · 06 May 2022

On May 4, the RBI came out with a surprise 40-bp rate hike. There are three puzzles here: Why a surprise action, why 40 bps, and why May 4? What is the monetary policy strategy that plausibly generated this? It is possible to reconstruct the logic for this from the viewpoint of exchange rate obj...

GULF WEEKLY: Oil up as OPEC+ tapers steadily, rate rises mirror Fed, CIA director visits Saudi
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 06 May 2022

​A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Oil rises on Russian oil ban fears, a limited OPEC+ taper and stasis in Iran nuclear talks. * The NOPEC bill to enable antitrust action against OPEC passed a US Senate committee 17-4. * Most Gulf states mirrored the Fed’s ...

Fiscal expansion is counteracting lockdowns
CHINA · Report · 06 May 2022

Lockdowns in Shanghai and other cities since March have interfered with robust economic recovery. GDP rose 4.8% y/y in Q1, up 0.8 pps from Q4 2021, but 0.2 pps lower than in Q1 2021. Industrial output rose 6.5% in Q1, up 2.6 pps from Q4, but down 1 pps from January-February. Investment rose 9.3% ...

Tension between the branches of government remains high, João Doria still faces resistance in the PSDB, and Lula’s pre-candidacy for the Planalto Palace will be officially launched tomorrow
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 06 May 2022

Regarding the institutional tension, STF President Fux has stated that he and Senate President Pacheco are “aligned on the objective of defending the government’s institutions and our Constitution”. Despite efforts at dialogue and attempts to de-escalate the institutional conflict, the likelihood...

Russian financial markets: a new approach to pricing
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 06 May 2022

The Russian economy will face a deep economic contraction in 2022 amid the harsh sanctions regime, and its financial markets have to adjust rapidly, trying to find an acceptable way to exist in the new reality. This process is further complicated by the rapid changes in external factors (mostly n...

Russian Army recruitment offices suffer arson attacks
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 06 May 2022

On May 5 a recruitment office was burnt down by Molotov cocktails. The police are seeking two male suspects. Five other military recruitment offices have been burnt by Molotov cocktails since the war began. This is indicative that a considerable proportion of young men do not want to be called up...

Still no decision on the EU's oil imports sanction against Russia
HUNGARY · In Brief · 06 May 2022

The intra-EU debate on how much economic damage individual member states should take and over what period due to the intended ban on oil imports from Russia continues. At present, there are five members asking for exemptions, all on temporary basis: Austria, Bulgaria, Czechia, Hungary and Slovaki...

Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 05 May 2022

The potential embargo on Russian oil, which is in discussion among other measures within the sixth sanctions package by the EU, pushed prices on the international market above $110 per barrel. The latter was supportive for the ruble, which at the beginning of May strengthen to around R/$66 (+21% ...

The House approved the national nursing salary floor bill, the União Brasil officially left the third-way alliance, and the latest poll shows that Bolsonaro is catching up to Lula
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 05 May 2022

The House and Senate approved bills that increase public spending. In the House, the bill on the national nursing salary floor was approved. In the Senate, a Constitutional Amendment Proposal (PEC) was approved that creates a salary floor for community health workers and for combating endemic dis...

April inflation quickened to 4.9%
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 05 May 2022

The headline inflation rate reached 4.9% in April, up from 4% in March.On a month-on-month seasonality adjusted basis, inflation continued to rise briskly at 1% for the second straight month.Increases in food and fuel prices are still the main drivers, with the latter pushing up consumers’ electr...

​Inflation @70, as the CBRT watches on
TURKEY · Report · 05 May 2022

Consumer prices rose by an above-consensus 7.2%, m/m, in April, with the 12-month CPI rate hence rising to 70%, from 61.1% a month earlier. Monthly PPI inflation was also high in April, at 7.7%, m/m, which meant a further visible increase in the 12-month rate to 121.8%, y/y, from 115% in March (G...

Russia performs nuclear drills near Poland
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 05 May 2022

On May 4 Russia carried out the simulated nuclear missile attack in Kaliningrad. This is 10 weeks to the day the Ukraine War began. Russia is dropping hints that it is willing to use tactical nuclear weapons. The exercise was an electronic launch of nuclear capable mobile ballistic missile system...

The EU considers banning Russian oil
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 04 May 2022

On May 4 the President of the European Commission announced a sixth round of sanctions. There are new banking restrictions. The EU wants to ban Sberbank and two other Russian banks from SWIFT.The EU will block three Russian TV channels.The EU also intends to help Ukraine pay for reconstruction af...

Pacheco met with Fux to try to alleviate the growing tension between the executive and judicial branches, the House may vote on the national nursing salary floor today, and the Senate may vote on the Auxílio Brasil provisional measure
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 04 May 2022

Yesterday, Senate President Rodrigo Pacheco met with the president of the Supreme Federal Court (STF), Luiz Fux. Afterward, he gave an interview to the press, stating that the goal of the meeting was to “prevent an escalation of a crisis caused by a lack of dialogue”. In the House today, the main...

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