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Events
Databanks
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Argentina databank May 13 -
Brazil Economics databank Apr 14
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Central America databank May 1
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Chile databank Apr 7
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China databank Mar 21
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Colombia databank May 12
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Dominican Republic databank Apr 28
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Ecuador databank Apr 22
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Gulf Countries databank May 16
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Hungary databank Apr 22
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India databank Apr 28
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Mexico databank May 12
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Panama databank May 13
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Peru databank Apr 28
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Philippines databank May 8
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Poland databank Apr 29
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Russia Economics databank May 12
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South Africa databank May 6
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Turkey databank Apr 24
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Ukraine databank May 12
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Venezuela databank May 5
NEWS FLASH
WEBINAR - LATIN AMERICA: FISCAL PRESSURES AND POLITICAL SHIFTS...
COUNTRY INSIGHTS
A 50-basis point increase in the repo rate by the South African Reserve Bank
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 19 May 2022
The South African Reserve Bank (SARB) has once again announced that it is hiking the benchmark interest rate, by 50 basis points – its largest since the beginning of 2016. This was following this week’s conclusion of its Monetary Policy Committee’s (MPC) third meeting of the year. The repo rate t...
The TCU approved the privatization of Eletrobras, the third-way alliance decided to appoint Senator Simone Tebet as its presidential candidate, and President Bolsonaro calls for the impeachment of Minister Alexandre de Moraes
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 19 May 2022
The government is racing against time to privatize Eletrobras before the election. The goal is for it to take place in June. The matter may still be taken to court — and the opposition certainly will do this. The leaderships of the third way parties will meet separately on Tuesday, May 24, to dec...
Monetary Board increases policy rates by 25bp
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 19 May 2022
Following rising domestic inflation and inflation expectations, firmer recovery in domestic demand and a more hawkish US Fed stance, the policy making body of the BSP decided today to raise its set of policy rates by 25bp. This will bring the overnight reverse repurchase rate (RRP), which has bee...
Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 19 May 2022
So far, the EU has failed to introduce the sixth package of sanctions, which was supposed to include some kind or embargo on Russian oil and oil-refined products. At the same time, the Western countries continue to discuss some other restrictions on energy imports from Russia (such as imposing sp...
GDP was up by 3.5% y-o-y in 1Q22 – better than expected
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 19 May 2022
Rosstat reported that the Russian GDP was up by 3.5% in 1Q22, which was not too bad a result given that in March the economy was already affected by the "special military operation". Therefore, the fact that the most recent forecast by the Economics Ministry, published a couple of days ago, was l...
Protests in Armenia threaten PM
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 18 May 2022
On May 17 over 400 people were arrested for a demonstration in Yerevan that obstructed streets. They were demanding that Prime Minister Pashinian resign. The city center was in gridlock due to the protestors obstructing traffic. Since May 1 there has been a concerted effort to force Pashinian fro...
Russian macro: drafting the budget for 2023 and beyond
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 18 May 2022
As Russia continues its journey to an unknown future, while the country’s economy has to undergo a kind of counter-transformation, i.e., from an open-market-oriented version toward a more closed one, the government has started to shape the 2023-2025 rolling budget. Such planning assumes a baselin...
The TCU resumes judgment of the privatization of Eletrobras, the third-way alliance will meet to discuss the poll results that may help the bloc select its presidential candidate, and the public servants’ salary issue continues
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 18 May 2022
The trial in the TCU was interrupted by a request for a review by Minister Vital do Rego. According to the statements made in the last session of the TCU on the matter, the probability is for the process to be approved. But there may be some caveats. There is no consensus in the third-way allianc...
Moscow hosts summit of its allies
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 18 May 2022
On May 16 Putin hosted the president of five member states of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO). CSTO members are Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. It marked the 30th anniversary of the foundation of the CSTO. The meeting was scheduled months ago.Putin is k...
Quid pro quo
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 17 May 2022
The Biden administration is finally determined to play its cards in favor of a credible negotiation process that channels the political conflict and leads to democratic progress in Venezuela.On May 17, the quid pro quo that the Venezuelan government had waited for since the surprise meeting of Ju...
An opportunity for President Lasso to reinvent himself
ECUADOR · Report · 17 May 2022
The various unsuccessful attempts to reach agreements with the Assembly are not President Lasso's only headaches. Several massacres in the jail system that have caused the deaths of over 350 inmates since 2021, and violence and insecurity on the streets – especially in Guayaquil, which now has th...
Vigorous recovery and resilience of Dominican economy despite challenges from global factors, according to IMF Mission
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 17 May 2022
The IMF concluded the 2022 Article IV Consultation Mission and recognized that "the economy has shown a vigorous recovery after the pandemic, despite global factors that have generated challenges in terms of inflation." For the IMF, resilience and signs of policy sustainability are placing the Do...
Kazakhstan macro: on the right track
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 17 May 2022
Despite the fact that the Kazakh government became less optimistic about the prospects of the country's economic growth in 2022, having lowered its GDP growth estimate to 2.1% from the previous 3.9%, the outcome may be better as the country has the chance to benefit from the fact that the Russian...
The Fiscal Risk and The Behavior Of The Exchange Rate
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 17 May 2022
In this Report, we evaluate the behavior of the Real after the pandemic. To explain the discrepancy between its behavior and that of the currencies of most other countries, we apply a model that, with proper consideration of the various structural breaks, quantitatively evaluates the effects of t...
Castillo struggles to survive; 2022 GDP growth forecast cut to 1.7%
PERU · Report · 17 May 2022
President Pedro Castillo has surprised commentators by successfully fending off several attempts to oust him from office. In past reports, we have argued that the opposition in Congress does not have the votes to impeach the president. However, there is another, more subtle, reason why Castillo h...