GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights

On February 28 Ottawa made the announcement and said it was to penalize Russia for the invasion of Ukraine. Canada bought only USD 170 million of Russian oil 2021 so the ban will have minimal impact on both countries. Canada has large oil reserves of its own.What would make a big difference is if...

The sixth day of war: Russians target more civilian deaths

UKRAINE · In Brief · 01 Mar 2022

We have no big changes at the front. Ukrainian army destroyed several more groups of Russian forces which targeted to take Kyiv into circle. Also Ukraine received 70 fight airjets from the EU countries to cover the sky and the jets promptly joined actions already yesterday. A big change that we o...

Belarus referendum allows Russian nukes and extends Lukashenka's power

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 01 Mar 2022

On February 27 the vote was held. The result was yes to the reform package. It was claimed that 65% of people voted. This is hard to believe given the apathy of the electorate. The reforms allow Lukashenka to seek more terms in office. They also give him immunity from prosecution for life.The ref...

“Historic” Opposition Declaration: Will it sell in Yozgat?

TURKEY · In Brief · 01 Mar 2022 · 1 response

Turkey’s six leading opposition parties sans pro-Kurdish Rights HDP gathered in a room to sign a Declaration for Democracy (the Protocol), with the lieutenants reading passages from the 19 page document (link to Turkish version is here). First, I classify the promises in three categories:Those re...

Economics: 2021 GDP numbers project a weak 2022

MEXICO · Report · 28 Feb 2022

Economic news this month confirmed the extent to which the economy is tending to stall. Friday’s GDP report for the fourth quarter proved to be only marginally more positive than the preliminary estimate Inegi issued at the beginning of the month, which had fallen almost three percentage points s...

Politics: Latest report from the federal audit authority belies AMLO’s anticorruption claims

MEXICO · Report · 28 Feb 2022

At a time when stories such as the “Gray House” once rented by the president’s son and the debate on corruption within the López Obrador’s government dominate the political agenda, the Superior Auditor of the Federation (ASF) presented the results of its audit of public spending for calendar year...

Signs of monetary and fiscal expansion at last

CHINA · Report · 28 Feb 2022

Because of the long Chinese New Year holiday, the statistics bureau only announced price, financial and PMI data in February. Producer prices grew more slowly. PPI rose 9.1% y/y, down another 1.2 pps from December. The ex-factory price index of industrial goods rose 8.85% y/y, while CPI growth a...

Ukraine implications for the Gulf update – diplomacy, energy and investments

GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 28 Feb 2022

As the invasion continues and the global response intensifies, Gulf states are among a core group of countries that have strong ties to both the West and Russia. While the crisis has created benefits and opportunities for them as energy exporters, it has also brought complications for their inves...

Russian macro: a Sisyphean task

RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 28 Feb 2022

As the Western sanctions continue to mount, it now becomes clear that Russia’s ruling elite didn’t consider various scenarios of how the attack on Ukraine could develop and bounce back on Russian citizens. Such an outcome was difficult to expect as the attack seemed so irrational and dangerous fo...

Labor market improvement hides a lower participation rate, and a new name with previous experience enters the political arena.

PANAMA · Report · 28 Feb 2022

The final GDP results for 2021 will be published soon. We expect a growth rate between 13% and 15%, the latter hinted by Minister Alexander in his February interview with the daily newspaper La Estrella. If confirmed by INEC, the economy will be on a path to recovery from the 18% drop of 2020. ...

Bracing for change, P.S.

PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 28 Feb 2022

When we issued our Forecast report on February 22, we had not expected that the risk we warned about that would be “disruptive to growth everywhere,” i.e., a war in Ukraine, would happen just two days later. The still unfolding event, with its immediate outsized impact on global commodity prices,...

Past performance is no guarantee of…

TURKEY · Report · 28 Feb 2022

GDP increased by 9.1%, y/y, in Q4, broadly in line with expectations, and up from 7.5% in Q3, while sequential (q/q) growth (in calendar- and seasonally adjusted terms) slowed to 1.5% in Q4, down from 2.8% in the previous quarter (Graph 1). It is worth highlighting that the output gap was stil...

Growing relatively well

INDONESIA · Report · 28 Feb 2022

Although less than predicted, Indonesia saw a small spike in its economic growth in the fourth quarter of 2021. The Indonesian economy in Q4 2021 reported an increase of 5.02% year over year. Compared to the previous quarter, the Indonesian economy grew by 1.06%. This rate of growth was actually...

The BoI prepares markets for a tightening cycle

ISRAEL · Report · 28 Feb 2022

1. We have revised our inflation forecast upwards for the coming months due to higher energy prices and a somewhat weaker shekel. 2. The Bank of Israel shifted to a tightening bias last week, preparing markets for tightening in the coming months. 3. We expect three hikes in the coming ...

The fifth day of war: the front has stabilized

UKRAINE · In Brief · 28 Feb 2022

The expected offensive of Belorussian army so far did not come to reality. Ukrainian army destroyed two more big groups of Russian forces that tried to take Kyiv into circle. But overall it looks like the fights have eased by now and the front has stabilized. If Russians do not bring more fresh b...