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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Further tightening expected ahead
ISRAEL · In Brief · 28 Aug 2022

The MPC continues to reveal its hawkish bias Policy rates moved 0.75% higher to 2.0%, at the high end of consensus which was in the 0.5%-0.75% range and closer to 0.5%. Rates have pretty much surprised on the upside since the tightening cycle commenced. Present rates (2.0%) are relatively high co...

Russia has detained 16,500 for anti-war protests in 6 months
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 28 Aug 2022

On August 24 human rights group OVD Info published a report about the scale of state repression in Russia. The great majority of the arrests for expressing anti-war sentiments came in February and March 2022. Since then there have been very few demonstrations. Most of the arrests were in the two ...

Visit of Kazakh President to Azerbaijan
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 27 Aug 2022

On August 24 the President of Kazakhstan visited Azerbaijan. He met with whom he described as his ''brotherly'' Azerbaijan analogue. The aim of the visit was to strengthen friendship between the nations and to deepen their partnership. The two former Soviet republics are both Turkic nations and h...

UN inspects Ukrainian nuclear plant
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 27 Aug 2022

On August 26 the International Atomic Energy Authority (IAEA) completed its inspection of the Zaporizhzhia plant. The plant is in Russian hands. IAEA is a UN agency. Ukraine has now said that Russia has cut the plant off from the power grid. This leaves much of Ukraine without electricity. It is ...

Facing weaker global growth and confidence
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 26 Aug 2022

Guatemala’s economy will grow steadily in the next 18 months, but at a slower pace than in the previous forecast. International conditions have changed drastically since March 2022. There are no signs of recession or stagnation. We do not expect economic activity to overperform in coming months. ...

Russian macro: industry shows signs of stabilization
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 26 Aug 2022

Almost every day the media quotes all sorts of politicians and commentators who talk about sanctions against Russia, repeating incantations that these sanctions work, or will work in a more distant time. It is not specified exactly how they will work. On the other hand, there are experts who argu...

Dangerous liaisons
TURKEY · Report · 26 Aug 2022

As we approach the end of the summer, the Nation Alliance under the de facto leadership of CHP leader Kilicdaroglu has been leading in the polls, as well as in terms of controlling the narrative. The opposition strategy to win elections is firmly focused on forcing President Erdogan to commit ...

GULF WEEKLY: Saudi hints at oil cuts, UAE ambassador returns to Iran, tourism recovers in Bahrain
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 26 Aug 2022 · 1 response

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * The Saudi oil minister roiled markets by hinting at possible production cuts. * This came as Iran submitted a “reasonable” response to the EU on the nuclear deal text. * The UAE is sending its ambassador back to Iran afte...

Lula interviewed by Globo’s Jornal Nacional last night, Simone Tebet to be interviewed tonight, and Bolsonaro said he expects Minister de Moraes to publish the reasoning behind his decision to authorize the Federal Police operation
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 26 Aug 2022

Former President Lula was interviewed by Jornal Nacional in a friendly environment, without embarrassing questions and without being interrupted as he spoke. Overall, he did well. Today, the MDB's presidential candidate, Simone Tebet, will be the final interviewee of the series. Also today, free ...

Putin orders Russian Military to recruit 137,000 people
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 26 Aug 2022 · 1 response

On August 25 the president said the million-strong Armed Forces need to expand to over 1.15 million. The figures exclude civilians working for the military. The expansion is to be completed by January 2023. Russia will find it very difficult to achieve this. People in their early 20s were born in...

Russia reintroduces Soviet heroine mother award
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 26 Aug 2022

On August 16 Russia brought back the title of "Heroine Mother" for those who give birth to ten children or more. Putin has long lamented Russia's fertility rate of 1.6. He wanted to boost it to 1.9, which would still be below the replacement level of 2.1. A mother of 10 children shall receive USD...

So far, so good
PHILIPPINES · Forecast · 25 Aug 2022

It has been a slow crawl out of the pandemic for the economy. 1H2022 output has surpassed the pre-pandemic level but the economy has emerged only to face a gloomy world economic outlook, with elevated commodity prices, tighter financial conditions and slowing global growth. The government lacks t...

Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 25 Aug 2022

The situation in the Russian FX market remains calm. The exchange rate fluctuated in a relatively narrow range of R/$ 59-61. Trading activity was rather moderate amid the summer holidays and more or less neutral news flow. One of the most intriguing events happened on Aug 18 as a daily turnover i...

2022 Budget amendment Bill with higher deficit but no change in financing needs
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 25 Aug 2022

The government delivered to the National Congress the Budget Amendment Bill for 2022, which increases the deficit to 3.6% of GDP, 0.6 pp higher than initially formulated. The novelty is that, thanks to the increase in tax revenues and savings in interest payments due to liability management opera...

Armenia and Azerbaijan negotiate in Brussels
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 25 Aug 2022

On August 24 representatives of the two hostile countries met under the auspices of the EU. In August 2022 there was sniping across the ceasefire line between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Armenia accused the other side of being the aggressor. The EU's statement about the talks was notable for its non-...

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