GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights

Minfin reported that in 2M22 the federal budget surplus exceeded R0.4 trln as revenues and expenditures reached R4.2 trln (16.8% of the annual plan) and R3.8 trln (16.0% pf the plan). The government collected R1.8 trln in oil-and-gas revenues and reg rest of R2.4 trln came from the non-oil-and-ga...

No sterilisation rate hike has taken place today

HUNGARY · In Brief · 17 Mar 2022

At today's 1-week deposit tender, the MNB kept the fixed interest rate unchanged at last week's 5.85%. This surprised us a bit, as we expected +25-30bps, despite the fact that the forint had appreciated quite substantially, back to EURHUF370, in recent days. The forint has actually weakened sligh...

MPC: Current account surplus no more, but no action

TURKEY · Report · 17 Mar 2022

The Monetary Policy Committee left the policy rate (one-week repo) unchanged at 14% today, in line with expectations, market rumors of a modest rate hike notwithstanding.

The federal government will announce measures to stimulate the economy, Petrobras was criticized from all angles yesterday, and public servants are still calling for a salary raise

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 17 Mar 2022

In response to the lowering of the economic growth prediction for this year, from 2.1% to 1.5%, Bolsonaro will launch the Income and Opportunity Program tomorrow. The program should allow access to funds for people to pay off their debts. Yesterday, Bolsonaro said that Petrobras CEO Joaquim Silva...

Economic dissent at the top

CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 17 Mar 2022

The volatile Chinese equity markets forced economics czar Liu He to make a statement quieting the markets. That has led to expectations of a new stimulus, including state promotion of equities (the “national team”). Although Xi Jinping dislikes volatility, whatever stimulus measures that are adop...

Russia avoids default on Sovereign Eurobonds

RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 17 Mar 2022

Yesterday the Finance Ministry had to pay down coupons on two issues of Sovereign Eurobonds with maturity in 2023 and 2043 worth $117 mln in aggregate. It sent a correspondent order to paying agent on Monday, but it was not clear whether it will be executed or not given the “freeze” of accounts o...

China’s Russian loans

CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 17 Mar 2022

China is now considered Russia’s most important partner due to their close strategic, political, and economic relationship. How do we value this relationship? One way is to examine the loans China has made to Russia over the past decade. Using the Aiddata loan database from William and Mary colle...

Cyber attacks on Russia increasing

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 17 Mar 2022

On March 17 the Russian state news agency TASS announced that Russia is facing more cyber attacks than ever. The government is trying to filter foreign web traffic to minimize this.Government agencies and state owned companies are being cyber attacked and it is presumably because of Ukraine. Aero...

The 22nd day of war: monstrous war crimes of Russians flush down negotiation efforts

UKRAINE · In Brief · 17 Mar 2022

Russians are facing defeat on all directions. Ukrainian forces are cautiously but persistently running tactical counterattack operations. A big group of Russian forces was encircled near Kyiv (Irpin-Bucha) and destroyed. Another large group of Russian military was encircled and eliminated near Vo...

Amendments to the Electoral Bill: More gerrymandering, but uncertain consequences

TURKEY · In Brief · 16 Mar 2022 · 1 response

I had given up on AKP-MHP agreeing on amendments to the Electoral Bill (EB), and had opined that as described by the press, even if it were to be legislated it will have no signaling value for the election date. I was wrong in the first conclusion, but the second stands. As well, I’d underestimat...

High inflation dampens news that Senate Commission approved treatment of IMF agreement

ARGENTINA · In Brief · 16 Mar 2022

As anticipated, the Senate Committee on the Budget approved yesterday that the IMF agreement will be sent to the upper house to be voted on tomorrow, Thursday. The political support was ample, with 15 votes in favor and only 2 dissidents. As said before, such a pragmatic position of the Committee...

Special rate of inflation amid the special military operation

RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 16 Mar 2022

Rosstat reported that inflation in seven days ending on March 11 reached 2.09%, and the MTD inflation on the same day was at 3.38%. As a result, the YTD figure jumped to 5.62%. Russia’s special military operation in Ukraine, which according to the country’s authorities goes in line with the plan,...

A mixed local picture, less than three weeks before Election Day

HUNGARY · In Brief · 16 Mar 2022

First and foremost, the weekly 1-week deposit tender is due tomorrow. At present, the forint is doing OK at EURHUF 370, thanks to some improvement with Russia/Ukraine and more with energy prices. Yet we believe the MNB cannot stop entirely with interest rate hikes, as the currency market is set t...

Zelensky says Ukraine will never join NATO

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 16 Mar 2022

On March 15 the prime ministers of Poland, Slovenia and the Czech Republic traveled to Kyiv to meet Zelensky. The Czech PM assured Ukraine of Czech support. The Polish PM said that the EU must not allow Ukraine to be defeated. Ukraine called for the EU to designate Russia a sponsor of terrorism.R...

The Senate CCJ will analyze the Tax Reform proposal, the government is hoping its measures to stimulate the economy will improve its popularity, and a new presidential poll will be published today

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 16 Mar 2022

The rapporteur of the Tax Reform proposal is Senator Roberto Rocha (PSDB-MA). We still believe that Senate approval is unlikely this year. Despite recognizing that this matter is important, the Senate still has not reached a consensus on the text. One of the government’s economic measures is the ...