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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Rate hike of only 0.25% likely in July, due to low CPI
ISRAEL · In Brief · 15 Jun 2022

Downward inflation surprise in May Inflation in May increased by 0.6% m/m (4.1% y/y), below market consensus of 0.6%-0.8% (we were at the high end of expectations). The big surprise (for us) came from the clothing item which increased by only 2.2% (-6.0% y/y, while in the US prices are up 5.0%!),...

The House approved the basic text of PLP 18, the Senate approved the PEC on biofuel competitiveness, and the Joint Budget Committee approved the rapporteur’s preliminary report on the Budget Guidelines Law
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 15 Jun 2022

The vote on PLP 18 was stopped due to technical difficulties but will resume this morning. Changes to the text still need to be put to a vote. The measure that establishes a trigger for states to receive compensation for lost state tax revenue may change. The Senate also unanimously approved Cons...

Kilicdaroglu-Erdogan in tactical battle, as opposition lays out economic agenda
TURKEY · In Brief · 15 Jun 2022 · 2 responses

Finally, I’m getting some serious and credible views from Erdogan and Kilicdaroglu about election timing and candidacy. These are not final, but they allow me to draw a more concise view of how the presidential election race will shape. As importantly, the Structural Reform Commission of the oppo...

Russian millionaires emigrating
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 14 Jun 2022 · 2 responses

Analysis by Henley and Partners investment migration consultancy on June 14 said that 15% of Russian millionaires will go abroad by the end of 2022. Western sanctions and a changed atmosphere in Russia are prompting the exodus. Paradoxically, the report also noted that billionaires had mostly mov...

Biden to visit Saudi Arabia and meet other Gulf leaders
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 14 Jun 2022

The US has confirmed that President Biden will visit Saudi Arabia in July, meeting with all the Gulf heads of state and also, significantly, with the Saudi crown prince. We are not expecting any major concessions from Saudi Arabia on human rights or oil supplies, although there may be some gestur...

An Example of Explicit Populism
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 14 Jun 2022

It is not unreasonable for a government, despite fragile fiscal fundamentals, to increase spending on income transfers in favor of the people most affected by a shock like the pandemic. However, populist measures that allocate scarce resources with the objective of temporarily raising the preside...

The 5M22 federal budget surplus widens
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 14 Jun 2022 · 1 response

The Finance Ministry reported that in 5M22 the government collected in the federal budget 48.1% of the annually targeted revenues, i.e., R12.0 trln from R25.0 trln. Total revenues in May reached R2.0 trln, which is fewer than in the previous months as the ruble looked too strong and the ruble-den...

The CA surplus remained strong in Q122
ISRAEL · In Brief · 14 Jun 2022

The CA surplus remained strong in Q122 In the 1st quarter of 2022, the current account surplus reached 5.1bn USD, similar to the average quarterly surplus in 2021, but below that of Q421 (6.8bn). This represents a surplus of approximately 4.1% of GDP. The trade deficit increased by 0.2bn in Q122,...

The Senate approved the ICMS bill on essential services, today is the deadline for President Bolsonaro to sanction changes to the civil aviation legislation, and the TSE will elect Minister Alexandre de Moraes as president of the Court
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 14 Jun 2022

Since the ICMS bill was altered, it will now return to the House for further analysis. Among the changes is the prioritization of the Basic Education Maintenance and Development Fund (Fundeb) in the federal government’s compensation to states for the loss in revenue due to the tax cut. One of the...

Is a war in Taiwan likely?
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 14 Jun 2022

President Biden’s public support for the defense of Taiwan, coupled with China’s increasing aggressive tactics in the South China Sea, have increased concerns about an invasion of Taiwan by the PRC. Elections in both Taiwan and the U.S. in 2024 could exacerbate existing tension. Despite the growi...

Castillo makes last-ditch efforts, as economy slows
PERU · Report · 14 Jun 2022 · 1 response

In this report we discuss the political and economic outlook for Peru. On politics, we argue that President Pedro Castillo is walking a tightrope, and that the probability of his being ousted has increased substantially. In previous reports, we have argued that the preliminary investigation into ...

First quarter IMF review approved - what's next?
ARGENTINA · Report · 14 Jun 2022

Last Wednesday, the IMF announced, as might have been expected, that the IMF and Argentina's authorities reached a staff level agreement in the country's first quarterly review (corresponding to 1Q22). Upon completion of the review (i.e., once the IMF board approves the review), Argentina should ...

Inflation falls due to energy price freezes and tighter monetary policy
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Report · 14 Jun 2022

After a strong 1% rise in April, monthly inflation fell 0.5% in May, one of its lowest levels since September 2020. But there was no free lunch: the Dominican government has maintained its fuel subsidy plan during the first five months of 2022, thereby providing a subsidy of $318.4 million to mi...

Politics: Morena wins 4 of 6 governors’ races, albeit under complicating circumstances
MEXICO · Report · 13 Jun 2022

When the dust settled on June 5, in the six state gubernatorial races up for grabs, Morena won four of the races. This brings the number of the country’s 32 states governed by the party to 20 (22 including its allies). Predictably, AMLO’s party was awash in triumphalism. But the victories occurre...

Economics: The export sector is driving Mexico's economic recovery
MEXICO · Report · 13 Jun 2022

The export sector has been the only one to maintain considerable growth and momentum in the past few years. Indeed, its growth has triggered the (still insufficient) recovery of the Mexican economy. Exports of agricultural and food products maintained their growth in the most complicated months o...

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