GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights

We have cut our 2022 GDP growth forecast to 3%, with a downward bias. A contraction phase seems to be taking shape. For February and March, we again expect adverse effects from the pandemic. In addition, external conditions have deteriorated, because of the effect of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine....

Labor market recovery is rate hike supportive

ISRAEL · In Brief · 21 Mar 2022

Broad unemployment (including Covid furloughs and those out of a job due to Covid but not actively seeking employment) declined to 5.4% in February from to 5.6% in January. The official narrow definition of unemployment remained at 3.7%. The number of workers increased by 37 thousand in February,...

Accelerating inflation will support tightening

ISRAEL · Report · 21 Mar 2022 · 1 response

1. Annual inflation is expected to accelerate to around 4.5% y/y by May and stabilize at this level for most of 2022. 2. The labor market continues to tighten as the number of job vacancies reaches new highs. 3. We expect the rate tightening cycle to commence on April 11, with rates ...

Diplomatic dividends and costs

TURKEY · In Brief · 20 Mar 2022 · 1 response

The Politics Author missed contributing to the Weekly on account of a long-delayed family reunion. He shall pay penance with a couple of market briefs during the week. There are topics on which I refrain from commenting because they have little practical value for domestic political dynamics or t...

Solid budget, weaker reserves

TURKEY · Report · 20 Mar 2022 · 1 response

In this very brief economics-only Weekly, we provide a few thoughts on the February budget as well as the housing price and sale data of the past week. We also review the key financial data through the week of March 11, notably the CBRT reserves, and share a few other tidbits. As signaled by t...

Kazakhstan will reduce the power of the president

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 20 Mar 2022

On March 17 President Tokayev announced that he intends to amend the constitution. In future the country will primarily be controlled by parliament and the presidency will become a ceremonial role. The regions shall be granted greater autonomy. The president will no longer be able to annul or sus...

Turkmenistan inaugurates new president

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 20 Mar 2022

On March 19 Serdar Berdymukhammedov was sworn in. The 40 year old is the son of the former president. Serdar is soft spoken, unemotional and indifferent to the wellbeing of his people. He studied in Moscow and Switzerland and speaks fluent English. There is no signal that the new administration w...

Kazakhstan to use RUB when trading with Russia

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 19 Mar 2022

On March 18 it was announced that this move would be made when Kazakhstan trades with Belarus and Russia. Kazakhstan is a member of the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU). However, when trading with other EAEU members (Armenia and Kyrgyzstan) Kazakhstan will use USD. Sanctions on Russia have hit Kaza...

Four EU countries expel 17 Russian diplomats

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 19 Mar 2022

On March 18 Bulgaria said the 10 diplomats were personae non grata for activities incompatible with diplomatic status (i.e. spying). The three Baltic nations followed suit expelling a further 7 diplomats. The three Baltic republics are worried because they are former Soviet states.Bulgaria is a f...

GULF WEEKLY: Saudi looks to China, DEWA's IPO is going ahead, Oman plans to reduce debt

GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 18 Mar 2022 · 1 response

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Oil prices rebounded strongly after the IEA estimated about 3m b/d of Russian oil could be shut in. * Saudi Arabia is reportedly considering selling some oil in yuan and has invited China’s president to visit. * The Iran ...

OFZ market to reopen on Mar 21, CBR will be ready to purchase bonds

RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 18 Mar 2022

Today CBR announced that secondary OFZ trading will reopen next Monday, March 21, after a two-week break, which was caused by the introduction of harsh anti-Russian sanctions. Since the closure of the market, the key rate has increased to a record high of 20%. To reduce potential volatility regul...

President Castillo faces impeachment; fallout from the Russia-Ukraine war

PERU · Report · 18 Mar 2022

Congress on March 8th rejected the no-confidence vote in the cabinet of Prime Minister Aníbal Torres. Although President Pedro Castillo has been in office for less than eight months, this is already his fourth cabinet, and the third to undergo such a vote. The previous cabinet, led by Héctor Vale...

Webinar Replay - Chile: Reviewing the new administration's policies

CHILE · Report · 18 Mar 2022

Gain insights on Chile's new administration. Visit our calendar page to watch the replay of our webinar featuring Robert Funk and Igal Magendzo as they discuss President Boric’s post-inaugural political and economic plans and provide an update on the progress of Chile’s Constitutional Convention.

ICJ rules against Russia as war costs mount

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 18 Mar 2022 · 1 response

On March 17 the International Court of Justice ruled against Russia 11-2. The ICJ ordered Russia to suspend hostilities immediately. It said Russia's claim of genocide in Ukraine is bogus. The Kremlin rejected the court's ruling and jurisdiction. Russia sent no lawyers or officials to the ICJ to ...

The federal government announced measures that could inject R$ 150 billion into the economy, some of Bolsonaro’s vetoes were overturned in Congress yesterday, and the 10th National Forum of Governors takes place next week

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 18 Mar 2022

One of the government’s measures allows the withdrawal of up to R$ 1,000 from the Guaranteed Service Time Fund (FGTS). Another allows for early access to the 13th salary installment for INSS retirees and pensioners. The package may improve the government's ratings. One of the vetoes that was over...