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Webinar Replay: Argentina's economic outlook after Guzmán's resignation
ARGENTINA · Report · 15 Jul 2022

What impact will Silvina Batakis have on the IMF agreement? Is Argentina veering towards a new debt restructuring? What are the fundamentals of President Fernández's "growth crisis"? Visit our calendar page to watch the replay of our webinar featuring Esteban Fernández Medrano discussing the imp...

GULF WEEKLY: Saudi opens airspace to Israel, oil touches post-Ukraine low, Libyan oil blockade may end
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 15 Jul 2022 · 1 response

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Oil briefly fell to $94 on Thursday, its lowest since the invasion of Ukraine, amidst recession fears. * OPEC sees 2023 demand rising to 103m b/d (and 105.4m in Q4), well ahead of the IEA forecast. * Libya’s oil blockade ...

The PEC on Fuels was enacted, Congress reviewed presidential vetoes, Congress will enter recess today, and the party convention period begins next week
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 15 Jul 2022

President Jair Bolsonaro participated in the session that enacted the PEC. In a direct message to women, Bolsonaro stressed that 2/3 of Auxílio Brasil payments are going toward women. The government expects the benefits to begin in August. One of the presidential vetoes that was reviewed provided...

Inflation acceleration supports front loading rate tightening
ISRAEL · In Brief · 15 Jul 2022

June’s CPI in line with market expectations Inflation in June increased by 0.4% m/m (4.4% y/y, up from 4.1% last month), in line with market expectations, while we were expecting a slightly higher print of 0.5%. Inflation in June was impacted by an 8.6% hike in petrol prices, a 22.6% increase in ...

Xi Jinping’s Visit to Hong Kong
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 14 Jul 2022

Xi Jinping’s chose Hong Kong as his first trip out of the mainland in two years as a symbol of global power and an expression of support for the incoming Chief Executive. His comments, along with other recent events, provide some clues to how China intends to govern Hong Kong. We can conclude tha...

The House approved the PEC on Fuels, Congress will now focus on reviewing presidential vetoes, and the Ministry of Economy will publish a new set of macroeconomic parameters
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 14 Jul 2022

Enactment should take place between today and tomorrow and the benefits should start being paid in August. The measures, in particular the increase in Auxílio Brasil payments and the gas voucher, are expected to have a positive impact on President Jair Bolsonaro’s popularity. Rodrigo Pacheco said...

Slide Presentation: Argentina's economic outlook after Guzmán's resignation
ARGENTINA · Report · 14 Jul 2022

Access the slide presentation from the GlobalSource Partners webinar, "Argentina's economic outlook after Guzmán's resignation", which featured Esteban Fernández Medrano discussing the implications of Guzmán's sudden resignation for President Fernández's political future and Argentina's econom...

Surprise interest rate hike
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 14 Jul 2022

After telling reporters some weeks ago that he preferred to do interest rate hikes 25bp at a time, Governor Felipe Medalla announced today that the Monetary Board decided to raise policy rates by a hefty 75bp in an off cycle move. This followed two separate 25bp increase in the last two months an...

EU tells Lithuania to allow rail transit of Russian goods
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 14 Jul 2022

On July 13 the EU said that Lithuania must allow all Russian goods to be transported through its territory to the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad. Only weapons are banned. Road transport of certain goods remains banned. The relaxation of the rail transit ban is good news for Russia. Supplying Kali...

Fiscal policy on the move
HUNGARY · In Brief · 13 Jul 2022

Well, it cannot be justly said that the government is not moving quickly enough once it really feels the need to do so. Most lately, the following series of action took place: 1. Two days ago, the cabinet detailed in a decree its plans for this year's HUF568bn (0.9% of GDP) reduction of the gover...

Sanctions impact Russian IT
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 13 Jul 2022

In April 2022 the Prime Minister asked IT specialists not to leave the country. Russia is still trying to build a sovereign internet.  Digital Platforms is a Russian IT company that has made NashStore, which is Russia's answer to Google Play. It is doubtful that Russian alternatives can provide t...

Lira paused the vote on the PEC on Fuels due to technical difficulties, Congress approved the LDO, and Lula will meet with Rodrigo Pacheco today
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 13 Jul 2022

The main text of the PEC on Fuels was approved with 393 votes in favor and 14 against. Lira announced the suspension when the edit that removes the state of emergency from the text was being analyzed. We still believe that the PEC on Fuels will be approved. Yesterday, Congress concluded the appro...

The Russian budget remains in surplus in 1H22
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 13 Jul 2022

The Ministry of Finance reported that in 1H22, the federal budget revenues reached R14.0 trln, i.e., 56.0% of the target. Spending reached R12.6 trln over the same period (53.4% of the annual target). These targets, though, are supposed to be somehow amended once the 2023 draft budget is submitte...

Western armaments for Ukraine
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 12 Jul 2022

NATO and EU countries have been supplying Ukraine since 2014. However, until 2022 this is mostly non-lethal aid. Ukrainian military officers have been trained in the US since the 1990s. The US sold Ukraine Javelin anti-tank weapons from 2018. Ukraine started to buy TB2 drones from Turkey in 2019....

President Cortizo announces that he plans to continue his tenure after his medical checkup in Houston. More subsidies are on the table to tame the inflationary effects.
PANAMA · In Brief · 12 Jul 2022

In a pre-recorded televised conference yesterday, Laurentino Cortizo announced that his health is stable. He plans to continue leading the Executive until the end of the Constitutional term in July 2024. Last week Cortizo traveled to Houston, Texas, to obtain a second opinion about the diagnosis ...

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