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Cases began to drop dramatically after braking all-time records last month. For the week ending Sunday, cases stood at 47K, corresponding to some 45% decline from two weeks ago. Experts expect cases to decline further in the coming weeks. As a response to declining cases, many regulations includi...

The 12th day of war: terror-Russia

UKRAINE · In Brief · 07 Mar 2022

There were no big changes at the front from March 3rd. The Russians’ offensive was stopped, no big city surrendered or even was encircled. The largest progress was reached in the South, with Russian forces overriding several towns; however, the occupants cannot control the territory and they stay...

The Senate should vote on the fuel bills on Wednesday, the government is expected to announce measures to stimulate the economy, and two new polls on the presidential election will be published this week

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 07 Mar 2022

The Senate should make yet another attempt to vote on PL nº 1.472/21 and PLP nº 11/20 on Wednesday, March 9. The rapporteur for both bills is Senator Jean Paul Prates (PT-RN). If approved in the Senate, the bills will go to the House for further analysis. The government is expected to announce me...

Some interpretations ahead of the IMF debate in Congress

ARGENTINA · Report · 07 Mar 2022 · 1 response

Last Friday, after some back-and-forth between the government and the main opposition regarding the final wording of the bill that will be debated this week in Congress, the full IMF agreement was finally presented to the Lower House and thereby disclosed to the public. Despite the frictions we d...

Israel’s exposure to Ukraine and Russia is minimal

ISRAEL · Report · 07 Mar 2022

1. Israel’s economic exposure to the Ukraine crisis is fairly limited. 2. Wage growth appears to be accelerating modestly, but the private sector is reporting a lack of available workers. 3. We see inflation's acceleration in the short-term supporting policy tightening, although the BoI ...

The MNB will need more robust action, the government is doing what it can

HUNGARY · In Brief · 07 Mar 2022

With the forint at EURHUF 395-400 today and down by 10% since the start of the war, it looks like the MNB will have to intensify tightening efforts this week. Unless the ECB provides extra help to the MNB to protect the forint, which may be wishful thinking on our part, the sterilisation rate wil...

Israel’s exposure to Ukraine and Russia is minimal

ISRAEL · In Brief · 06 Mar 2022

The economic impact from the Ukraine crisis is relatively small Total exposure of exports (goods and services) to both Russia and the Ukraine is less than 2.5%. Israel’s defense industry is likely to benefit from increased spending from the EU, especially Germany. A wave of immigration (not clear...

Unintended consequences galore

TURKEY · Report · 06 Mar 2022

The politics author hereby serves notice that he temporarily suspended all election scenarios, be they early, late or never. Why? Please look inside… Many historians call the Ukraine War the gateway to the second Cold War, which may be a bit premature, but it is certainly having long-term spil...

Georgia and Moldova apply for EU membership

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 06 Mar 2022

On March 3 two former Soviet republics submitted their applications. They have been candidates for EU membership for years. They are both worried about Russian encroachment. There are Russian troops in both Moldova and Georgia against the wishes of the government of those countries. Moscow says i...

Yet more sanctions on Russia as Putin threatens to end Ukrainian statehood

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 06 Mar 2022

On March 5 Putin said that if Ukraine continues to resist he might end its independence and that would be all Ukraine's fault. Until now Putin's goals were regime change and the annihilation of the Ukrainian Military. Reintegrating Ukraine had not been an objective. This objective is seen by pund...

More sanctions Russia as Moscow cracks down on the media

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 06 Mar 2022

On March 5 Singapore announced it was restricting Russian banks access to its market. There will be export controls on items going to Russia and restrictions on cryptocurrencies trading with Russia. Singaporean finance will be prohibited from doing anything that might support the Russian Central ...

No light at the end of the tunnel

RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 04 Mar 2022 · 1 response

At this stage, it is hard, if not impossible, to envisage more or less accurately what may happen this year with the Russian economy, as even while writing a relatively short note, the news keeps coming one after another. A growing number of foreign companies suspend their trade operations with R...

GULF WEEKLY: OPEC+ sticks with taper, PMIs rebound, Sharjah’s budget looks tight

GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 04 Mar 2022

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Gulf states voted yes in the UN General Assembly Ukraine resolution, although UAE earlier abstained at the Security Council. * Qatar, Saudi and UAE all had calls with Putin and/or Zelenskyy, with talk of mediating. * OPEC...

Forint weakening continues, the MNB spoke again today

HUNGARY · In Brief · 04 Mar 2022

Life has quickly stepped over our wish that yesterday's interest rate hike by the MNB should stabilise the EURHUF exchange rate for more than one afternoon. The forint fell to EURHUF 386-387 today, before correcting back slightly, by just one unit, when the MNB stepped in with a verbal interventi...

What can we expect from the Two Sessions?

CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 04 Mar 2022

Special points to highlight in this issue: * Tomorrow the Two Sessions will begin, during which Beijing will set targets and objectives for policies involving the economy, the military, trade, diplomacy, the environment and more. As part of the meeting Beijing will probably announce the G...