GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights

On February 25 Darigha Nazarbayev, the daughter of former President Nazarbayev, resigned from Parliament. She had once been chairwoman of the senate and seen as a possible president herself one day.On February 19 the former Defense Minister Murat Bektanov was put into jail for a 2-month pre-trial...

Turkey eager to normalize relations with Armenia

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 28 Feb 2022

There is some good news coming from the former USSR! On February 24 talks took place in Vienna. Both sides said the talks were optimistic but no clear outcome was reached.On February 23 the President of Turkey said he would like to restore diplomatic relations and trade. Special envoys have been ...

The BoI prepares markets for a tightening cycle

ISRAEL · In Brief · 27 Feb 2022

The BoI is clearly signaling for an imminent hike Rates remained stable last week, but the FG was revised significantly to suggest tightening “in the coming months”. This more hawkish bias is due to both higher-than-expected inflation in December and January and very robust growth numbers. The la...

Speaking of unstable equilibria

TURKEY · Report · 27 Feb 2022

The Turkish media is mesmerized by the heartbreaking scenes of war in Ukraine, which means domestic politics has been relatively quiet during the week. President Erdogan, too, seems to have grasped that the Russia-Ukraine War could deal a big blow to the already shaky New Economic Model. Indee...

The 4th day of the war: UN reported 368 thousand refugees from Ukraine so far

HUNGARY · In Brief · 27 Feb 2022

These people have fled mainly to Poland, Hungary, Romania, Slovakia and Moldova. Hungary's share is 62k refugees cumulatively today.Receiving refugees near the border is starting to cost government money, but the costs are very substantially lower than one would think on the basis of arrival numb...

Fourth day of war: Kyiv mincer

UKRAINE · In Brief · 27 Feb 2022

Russians throw more and more battalions on well prepared positions of Ukrainian army near Kyiv. Dozens of videos witnessing huge losses of Russian forces. This one was recorded today in Bucha, the suburb of Kyiv. For the last night heavy shelling of Kyiv was expected but the night was relatively ...

3rd day of the war: Hungary is not blocking Russia's exclusion from SWIFT

HUNGARY · In Brief · 26 Feb 2022

While there is heavy fighting in the streets of Kiyv and elsewhere in Ukraine, and well over 100k refugees have left the country already, President Zelensky and the Kiyv Independent news portal separately hinted that Hungary (and Germany) is blocking Russia's exclusion from SWIFT, as part of west...

Third day of war: Putin’s offensive was stopped

UKRAINE · In Brief · 26 Feb 2022 · 3 responses

We were unable to give any reports on the developments around Russian’s offensive since we were pretty busy bringing our beloved people out of the action area. Now we are in relatively safe place if any place could be safe on these days in Ukraine. I plan to give some personal observations based ...

A livelier rebound

CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 25 Feb 2022

Costa Rica showed a higher-than-expected rebound of economic activity in 2021, driven by a favorable external evolution, particularly in the United States, the country’s major economic and trading partner. Perspectives for the outlook horizon will be conditioned by the presidential election outco...

The 2nd day of the war: EU sanctions, refugees from Ukraine

HUNGARY · In Brief · 25 Feb 2022

The EU Council met last night, adopting various sanctions against Russia. The details are far not fully known yet, but the outlines suggest that even though the sanctions are significant, they fell short of what the anti-Russian lobby was hoping for.Following the meeting, PM Orbán went public imm...

Russia: a brief market watch

RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 25 Feb 2022 · 1 response

Russia’s war in Ukraine hit the markets badly all across the board. The impact on the economy is yet to be seen as consumer behavior may change again amid a shock the nation (at least part of it) felt on February 24. The already imposed sanctions on Russia will obviously squeeze the country’s fin...

GULF WEEKLY: GCC urged to act on Ukraine, Iran deal looked close, Saudi bank moots major acquisition

GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 25 Feb 2022 · 1 response

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Oil and gas prices surge and then fall back to near pre-invasion levels. * Ukraine lobbies Qatar, and the US lobbies Saudi and UAE (the latter on a pending UNSC vote). * There was more optimistic talk about the Iran deal...

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine may impact agribusiness in Brazil, the STF judges whether retirees can use all their social contributions, and there will be no legislative activity next week due to Carnival

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 25 Feb 2022

The increase in the price of commodities, such as wheat and soybeans, in addition to oil, can put pressure on inflation in Brazil. There are supply concerns about important production chains in industries such as semiconductors, vehicles and medicines. The problem has been used by senators to def...

Webinar Replay: China Outlook for 2022 featuring Michael Pettis

CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 25 Feb 2022

Click on our Calendar Events page to watch the replay of our February 23, 2022 webinar with GlobalSource Partners' China Financial Analyst Michael Pettis as he interprets the recent GDP data and its implications for China's monetary policy and its economic rebalancing over the medium term.

China’s proxy stimulus

CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 25 Feb 2022 · 1 response

China is avoiding a direct fiscal or monetary stimulus in favor of small-scale stimulus through proxies. In fact, Beijing is purposely withdrawing support for the property sector to avoid inflating the bubble. This may be inadequate to stimulate the economy to the degree that many investors are e...