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The National Bank of Kazakhstan reported that the country’s current account surplus widened in 2Q22 and reached $4.135 bn. In 1Q22, it was at $2.512 bn. Hence this surplus reached $6.647 bn in 1H22. In 2021 the current account was in deficit each quarter, and its annual deficit was at $5.737bn. N...

Russian anti-draft protestors drafted

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 25 Sep 2022

Since the mobilization of 300,000 reservists was announced on September 23 there have been protests in several Russian cities. The police have arrested protestors, and in the cases of young men, handed them draft notices. The police confiscate the passport of the detainee and then use the informa...

Uzbekistan blocks Russian payment system

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 24 Sep 2022

On September 23 the Central Asian country stopped the Mir payment card. Over half the Russian population holds such a card. Mir is accepted by Belarus, Armenia, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Vietnam. It is thought that Uzbekistan stopped Mir because of the fear of secondary sanctions. Uzbekistan has...

Russia: a brief market watch

RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 23 Sep 2022

The decision to call referendums in Donbas and neighboring regions and the announcement of partial mobilization in Ukraine pushed the Russian financial market significantly lower. As a result, the yield for 10-year OFZ moved to double-digit territory, for the first time since the end of May, whil...

Three polls will be published today, Lula is unlikely to attend the debate tomorrow, and the STF begins judgment on whether the Difal can be collected this year

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 23 Sep 2022

The Datafolha poll published yesterday shows an increase in Lula's advantage over Bolsonaro. Lula rose from 45% to 47% and now has a 14-point advantage over Bolsonaro, according to the institute. The President remained stable at 33%. Ciro Gomes has 7%, and Simone Tebet, 5%. Lula is unlikely to at...

GULF WEEKLY: Rates hiked, MBS mediates Russia prisoner release, UAE and Oman GDP

GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 23 Sep 2022

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Gulf states hiked interest rates by 75bp, bar Kuwait, which only raised by 25bp. * Oil slipped to the lowest since January despite a record shortfall in OPEC+ production. * There was no progress towards an Iran nuclear de...

Another 75-basis point repo rate increase by the South African Reserve Bank despite slowing inflation

SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 22 Sep 2022

Staying its course of policy normalization, the South African Reserve Bank hiked the benchmark interest rate by another 75 basis points during the Monetary Policy Committee’s (MPC) September meeting. With the repo rate climbing to 6.25% from 5.5%, the prime lending rate also increases, to 9.75% f...

Another 100 bps cut from the CBRT

TURKEY · In Brief · 22 Sep 2022

The CBRT/MPC cut the policy rate (one-week repo) by another 100 bps to 12% (simple) today. While this wasn’t the consensus expectation, we are not terribly surprised, as we had given more than even odds to such a move (see last Sunday’s Tracker). The MPC statement is almost identical to the previ...

Pro-Russian rebels release 10 foreigners

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 22 Sep 2022

On September 21 the pro-Moscow Forces unexpectedly freed Britons, Croats, Americans, a Moroccan and a Swede. The ten men had been accused by the pro-Russian Donetsk People's Republic administration in East Ukraine of being mercenaries. Some of them had been sentenced to death. The men were freed ...

Putin calls for "partial mobilization" – an extra challenge to deal with

UKRAINE · In Brief · 21 Sep 2022

Well, we are moving to the "next level" of the war. Until Sept 21st, 2022, the Russian population was observing the invasion from the outside of the field, just cheering their team. Sanctions created some minor inconveniences but it’s nothing compared to the hardships Ukrainians had to pass throu...

Putin announces partial mobilization

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 21 Sep 2022

On September 21 the president said that 300,000 men will be called up. He said that NATO countries had used nuclear blackmail against Russia. Putin reminded the world that Russia possesses nuclear weapons, too. He warned that if Russia's territorial integrity was threatened then Russia would resp...

Hurricane Fiona strongly impacts the eastern and northeastern provinces of the country

DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 20 Sep 2022

Hurricane Fiona made landfall in the Dominican Republic early Monday with winds of 150 kilometers per hour. It had a strong impact on east and northeast regions, mainly affecting the provinces of La Altagracia, El Seibo, Hato Mayor, Samaná, Duarte and María Trinidad Sánchez. So far there has been...

State Deputy Douglas Garcia verbally attacked journalist Vera Magalhães during a TV debate, Lula to participate in a political event in Minas Gerais, and the TCU determined that the BNDES must refund R$ 88 billion in public resources

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 15 Sep 2022

Vera Magalhães had already been subjected to a harsh response from Jair Bolsonaro during the presidential debate held by Band. State Deputy Douglas Garcia attended the debate at the invitation of Tarcísio de Freitas, candidate for governor. State deputies from the PT said they will submit an impe...

China and Russia hold naval exercises

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 15 Sep 2022

On September 15 the neighbors held the exercises in the Pacific Ocean. They wish to challenge American hegemony. Destroyers carried out live fire exercises and helicopter deck flights. The Russian Defense Ministry has been eager to publicize the exercises. It published videos. The communique ment...

Zelensky visits Izyum as Ukraine advances

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 15 Sep 2022

On September 15 the Ukrainian President visited the recently liberated city. Ukrainian Forces are pushing deeper into the Donbas. Western analysts think that this counter-offensive may soon run out of steam. Ukrainian supply lines are being stretched. Russian resistance is stiffening. Zelensky p...