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The state of the race and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 31 May 2022

The House analyzes bills that may result in lower electricity prices for consumers. The PSDB discusses support for Simone Tebet’s (MDB) candidacy. The PL will broadcast electoral advertisements and should highlight government achievements. On Thursday, the IBGE publishes the GDP for the first qua...

On Q1 GDP (and a bit more)
TURKEY · Report · 31 May 2022

The Turkish GDP grew by 1.2%, q/q, and 7.3%, y/y, in the first quarter of the year (see chart), broadly in line with the consensus forecast. As regards the demand composition of growth, it is worth emphasizing at the outset that the year-on-year versus quarter-on-quarter figures yield starkly dif...

Inflation is creeping higher
INDONESIA · Report · 31 May 2022

The Indonesian economy posted encouraging results for Q1 2022. GDP grew by 5.01% year over year, above expectation. This rate of growth was almost the same as the annual rate of growth achieved in Q4 2021 of 5.02%. Compared to the previous quarter, the Indonesian economy contracted by 0.96%. Howe...

Synthesis of the Brazilian Economy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 31 May 2022

As the war caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine enters its fourth month, it is evident that its costs and risks are affecting not only those on the battlefields, but the entire world. Since the start of the war, the international price of wheat has risen by more than 40% and of corn by nearly 3...

Consequences of the Russia-Ukraine war
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 31 May 2022

Costa Rica´s growth will slow in 2022, but won´t stop over the consequences of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Three transmission channels will negatively impact the economy: less favorable external trade, higher international prices and tighter financial conditions. These factors are pushing growth...

The labor market continues to tighten
ISRAEL · Report · 31 May 2022

1. The labor market continues to tighten as job vacancies hit record levels, supportive of wage pressure. 2. Private consumption growth appears to have moderated recently following the rapid growth when Covid restrictions were cancelled. 3. The Bank of Israel raised rates by 0.4% las...

EU bans most Russian oil
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 31 May 2022

On May 30 the European Union banned Russian oil except for when it is sold to Hungary. Hungary buys 65% of its oil from Russia. The aim is that Hungary will wean itself off Russian oil over several years. The move banks the import of two-thirds of Russian oil imports to the EU immediately. Poland...

Good news: accord reached on the oil embargo
HUNGARY · In Brief · 31 May 2022

Early this morning, an accord has been reported to have been reached by the EU Council on the oil embargo against Russia. Hungary, Czechia and Slovakia will be allowed to temporarily continue to buy Russian oil through the southern flank of the Drushba (= Friendship !) pipeline. No deadline has b...

EU summit, rate-setting meeting, weak forint
HUNGARY · In Brief · 30 May 2022

The situation is quite complicated once again. This afternoon, the EU Council's extraordinary summit meeting started. A key issue for the meeting is supposed to be the oil embargo against Russia. The forint was quite weak again, with EURHUF 395-396, in late trade today, as PM Orbán said earlier t...

Zelensky visits eastern front and admits situation is very difficult
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 30 May 2022

On May 29 the Ukrainian President went to Ukraine's second city Kharkiv. It is only 40 km from Russia. However, the city is no longer under ground attack. Zelensky dimissed Kharkiv's security chief. The president said the man had not run the defense of the city well in February 2022. On May 29 th...

Neither sanctions relief nor negotiations, for now
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 30 May 2022

The quid pro quo that seemed to be on track a few weeks ago to reactivate negotiations appears to be on hold. License 8j extending until December 1, 2022 the operating restrictions limiting Chevron, Halliburton, Schlumberger, Baker Hughes and Weatherford International in Venezuela was a non-event...

France and Germany keen to end Ukraine War
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 29 May 2022

On May 28 the President of France and the Chancellor of Germany had a phone call with Putin. They forwarded proposals to end the war. France and Germany pleaded with Russia to guarantee safe passage to ships transporting food from the Ukrainian Port of Odessa. Ukraine provides at least 10% of the...

GULF WEEKLY: Gulf officials swarm Davos, Saudi prioritizes rebuilding reserves, Oman-Iran gasfield discussed
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 27 May 2022

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Four Saudi ministers, Qatar’s emir and other Gulf officials spoke at Davos. * Saudi Arabia is using the surplus to rebuild reserves, before funding PIF or cutting the VAT rate. * PIF bought a $1.5bn stake in Prince Alwaleed...

Petro’s only chance might be May 29th
COLOMBIA · Report · 27 May 2022

Here we present the proposals of the three leading presidential candidates: Gustavo Petro, Federico Gutiérrez and Rodolfo Hernández, in comparative tables. In the general view of the economy, Gutiérrez seems market and business friendly, whereas Petro would pursue interventionist policies, and He...

​Special Brief: Election Timing and Exchange Rate Management
TURKEY · In Brief · 27 May 2022

Introduction We shall not publish a Weekly Tracker this Sunday, on account of Murat Ucer being out of town on business. Instead, I wanted to share my preliminary conclusions on two topics which topped the FAQ list in our recent contacts with our audience. These are election timing and the fate of...

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