President Bolsonaro announces economic measures, the Senate should vote on bills related to fuel prices next week, and the PDT, MDB and União Brasil will start airing their advertisements
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 04 Mar 2022

During his weekly livestream, Bolsonaro announced that the water scarcity fee will end in April. Among the possible measures to stimulate the economy are allowing access to FGTS resources so that people can pay off their debts, as well as the issuing of credit for companies in an estimated value ...

February inflation at 3%
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 04 Mar 2022

The Philippine Statistics Agency (PSA) reported today that the headline inflation rate averaged 3% in February, the midpoint of the BSP’s 2-4% inflation target.The relatively benign inflation outturn, despite the 13.5% yoy increase in electricity prices and 6% yoy rise in local fuel prices during...

Chinese dominated bank stops lending to Russia
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 04 Mar 2022

On March 3 the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) said it was suspending lending to Russia and Belarus. Russia's debt rating has been reduced to junk. The AIIB made the move on the basis of the ''best interests of the bank.''This will come as a deep disappointment to Moscow. China is not...

The eighth day of war: bombardment of civilians and difficult stance at the South
UKRAINE · In Brief · 03 Mar 2022

No big changes at the front. Belorussians do not move. Ukrainian army cleans the remains of Russians around Kyiv. Difficult situation at the South with several towns surrounded and blocked by Russian forces. Russians intentionally bombard residential areas of the towns with artillery targeting mo...

Inflation already above the CBRT's upper band
TURKEY · Report · 03 Mar 2022

Consumer prices rose by 4.8%, m/m, in February, significantly higher than the consensus forecast of 3.8% (and our even somewhat more optimistic forecast), with the 12-month CPI inflation increasing further to 54.4%, from 48.7% in January. This is the ninth consecutive month of increase in CPI inf...

Presidential candidates call for the government to condemn the war between Russia and Ukraine, party advertisements have begun, and the party window begins today
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 03 Mar 2022

The presidential candidates are turning to social media to call for the Brazilian government to take a firmer position and condemn the Russian attacks. In the press, President Jair Bolsonaro's stance has been heavily criticized. Several of the PDT’s ads are going live this week, and Ciro Gomes is...

The MNB raised the sterilisation rate by 75 bps at today's tender
HUNGARY · In Brief · 03 Mar 2022

As we wrote the other day, the MNB was unlikely to tolerate the forint's breaking through the EURHUF 380 line without any action. And yes, the Bank raised the 1-week deposit rate by 75 bps to 5.35% at this week's tender, which is held today (on Thursday, as usual). This is in line with what the M...

UN votes against the invasion of Ukraine as peace movement builds
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 03 Mar 2022 · 1 response

On March 2 the UN General Assembly voted to condemn Russia and demand a withdrawal. This is a non-binding resolution. The countries that voted for Russia were Belarus, Syria, Eritrea, Armenia and North Korea. The good news for Russia was the high number of abstentions.It will be a disappointment ...

Russian equity market is frozen
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 02 Mar 2022

The decision of Western countries to freeze assets of the Russian Central Bank, which has been agreed over weekend, became the “surprise” for the local authorities and caused them to implement counter steps. For example, international investors were prohibited from receiving any payments in the f...

War impact on Hungary: Sberbank, OTP, energy prices, car manufacturing, an 'unfriendly country' & the refugee situation
HUNGARY · In Brief · 02 Mar 2022

On the 7th day of the war, there are lots of news reports to react to. Here follows a brief collection of the more important ones.1. The MNB revoked the licence of Sberbank in Hungary, and it will be liquidated, after the latter's parent had been brought under a similar procedure in Austria. The ...

The seventh day of war: the offensive has exhausted
UKRAINE · In Brief · 02 Mar 2022

Over the last day there were no big changes from the North. Belorussian army did not move to Lviv and situation around Kyiv has stabilized after all big military groups of invaders have been destroyed. The main trouble for now are roaming remains of Russian army near Kyiv which are trying to get ...

UK sanctions Belarus as Russian oligarchs call for peace
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 02 Mar 2022

On March 2 London said it was sanctioning four senior Belarusian Army officers and two military enterprises. The United Kingdom said this was because of Belarus's abetment of the invasion of Ukraine.Russian soldiers invaded Ukraine from Belarus. Ukraine claims that Belarusian soldiers have invade...

Economic isolation of Russia intensifies
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 02 Mar 2022

On March 1 Apple, ExxonMobil, Disney, WarnerMedia, Ford, BP, Shell, Amex, Mastercard, Visa, American Express and Boeing announced that they are leaving Russia or freezing their business there. ExxonMobil was working on the Sakhalin oilfield in the Pacific Ocean. It has operated there since 1995. ...

​Alberto Fernández's opening speech at the Congress
ARGENTINA · In Brief · 01 Mar 2022

Today, at the opening session of Congress President Alberto Fernández (AF) gave the traditional Address to the Nation, which is always worthwhile analyzing. As usual for such an occasion, AF was accompanied by Vice President Christina Fernández de Kirchner (CFK), in her role as President of the S...

Forint, BUX sharply down on Ukraine, verbal intervention by MNB
HUNGARY · In Brief · 01 Mar 2022

Apparently, president Putin has decided to break Ukraine's resistance at all cost. At least this is the markets' conclusion from today's war events. Hungarian assets are hit hard: the BUX fell 10%, OTP fell 18%, and the forint dropped to 379.6 against EUR, the weakest ever level, earlier today. A...