GULF WEEKLY: Saudi posts strong GDP, Jebel Ali stake sold, Coronavirus cases tick up

GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 10 Jun 2022

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Oil is close to its post-invasion high, and the UAE energy minister says it is nowhere near the peak. * One driver is an IAEA resolution criticizing Iran, which responded by reducing nuclear site monitoring. * Coronavirus...

Webinar Replay: Venezuela – Sanctions: What's next?

VENEZUELA · Report · 10 Jun 2022

Get insight into how changes to sanctions may reshape Venezuela's macro outlook and the future of Venezuelan oil. Visit our calendar page to watch the replay of our webinar featuring Ruth Krivoy discussing sanctions, the Chevron license, and what's ahead for Venezuela.

The PSDB announced support for the candidacy of Sen. Simone Tebet, the Senate may vote on bills related to the ICMS tax, and the Joint Budget Committee may vote on the preliminary report on the draft Budget Guidelines Law (LDO) for 2023

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 10 Jun 2022

Senator Tasso Jereissati is the favorite to run as vice president on the Senator Tebet’s ticket. Achieving unity in the bloc will be difficult, and the confirmation of the ticket during the convention period will be another battle, especially if Simone's intended votes remain low. In addition to ...

Kazakh Constitution to be amended

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 10 Jun 2022

On June 6 it was announced that a referendum approved a package of reforms to the constitution. 77% of votes were for the changes. There was a reported turnout of 68%. Experts suggest the high turnout may not be credible. The referendum was on over 50 amendments to the constitution – a large numb...

CBR cuts the key rate by 150 bps, more cuts expected

RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 10 Jun 2022

The CBR cut the key rate by 150 bps to 9.5% amid rapid disinflation and an abnormally strong ruble. The latter factor also encouraged the government to cancel obligatory FX sales by exporters introduced after Russia announced its “special military operation” in Ukraine. The regulator now expects ...

Pandemic statistics update - June 10, 2022

CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 10 Jun 2022

China film box office revenue is showing quite steady gains beginning in June. This confirms news reports that suggest the lockdowns are easing, either due to local pressure or because there has been containment of Covid in places such as Shanghai. Both Shanghai and Beijing have shown sharp chang...

Kazakhstan: Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary

KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 10 Jun 2022

May 31 Government of Italy Kazakhstan exported 455.2 thousand tons of oil to Italy in March versus 268.4 thousand tons in February. Jun 1 North Caspian Operating Company Oil production at the Kashagan field has been suspended since June 1 due to scheduled repairs for approximately 45 days. Kashag...

The fiscal deficit continued to normalise in May

HUNGARY · In Brief · 09 Jun 2022

New central government cash data suggests the government is serious about its promise to fix the budget on rather short notice after the election. In May, the cash deficit was only 2.1% of GDP on annualised basis. As a result, the cumulative January-May deficit fell to 11.3% of GDP, from 13.7% in...

The current account and the trade surpluses narrow in May, albeit still remain wide

RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 09 Jun 2022

As in the aftermath of geopolitical tensions and sanctions, the CBR stopped publishing detailed information on foreign trade regularly. It now provides monthly only a few numbers related to Russia’s current account and foreign trade balances. The regulator reported that in 5M22, the estimated cur...

Inflation in Kazakhstan remains elevated, the base rate may be increased later this year

KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 09 Jun 2022

As opposed to Russia, where inflation decelerated fast (in May, it fell to 0.12% m-o-m and for several weeks, the w-o-w inflation remained at around zero), inflation in Kazakhstan was at 1.7% m-o-m in May. It was only slightly lower than the m-o-m inflation in April (2.0%). By the end of May, the...

The House approved the bill preventing the ICMS from being levied on additional electricity fees, the rapporteur of the ICMS ceiling on essential services changed compensation mechanisms in the text, and Pres. Bolsonaro should meet with Pres. Biden today

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 09 Jun 2022

The ICMS proposal will be sent to the Senate. Estimates show that the measure could result in R$ 2.88 billion in annual savings for consumers if generation conditions in the coming years are similar to those observed since 2015. The rapporteur of the ICMS ceiling bill, Senator Fernando Bezerra, m...

Russia appoints officials in Donetsk

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 09 Jun 2022

On June 9 bureaucrats took office in the Donetsk People's Republic (DPR). DPR is recognized by Russia but not the rest of the world, which views it as part of Ukraine. Until now DPR has been run by people who are from it. There were hints in February 2022 that recognizing the DPR was only a step ...

Russian macro: shocks and pressure

RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Forecast · 08 Jun 2022

The initial shock associated with Russia’s “special military operation” has evolved into a kind of permanent pressure on the Russian economy due to the restrictive measures imposed by Western governments and the voluntary exodus of many foreign companies that operated in the country. Even though ...

Still too close to call

COLOMBIA · In Brief · 08 Jun 2022 · 1 response

Russia considering annexing Kherson

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 08 Jun 2022

On June 6 a Russian politician named Igor Kasyukevich said that the Kherson Region of Ukraine ought to be declared part of Russia. Kasyukevich said a referendum should be held first. Russia did this with the Crimean Peninsula in 2014. Crimea was officially part of Russia until the 1950s. Kremlin ...