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Events
Databanks
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Argentina databank Aug 29 -
Brazil Economics databank Aug 18
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Central America databank Aug 27
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Chile databank Aug 26
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China databank Mar 21
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Colombia databank Sep 2
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Dominican Republic databank Aug 21
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Ecuador databank Aug 25
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Gulf Countries databank Sep 5
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Hungary databank Sep 11
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India databank Jun 26
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Mexico databank Aug 28
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Panama databank Jul 17
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Peru databank Aug 14
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Philippines databank Sep 10
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Poland databank Jul 16
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Russia Economics databank Aug 14
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South Africa databank Sep 5
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Turkey databank Aug 11
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Ukraine databank Aug 15
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Venezuela databank Sep 2
NEWS FLASH
UPCOMING WEBINAR - AND NOW FOR SOMETHING COMPLETELY DIFFERENT: BRAZIL...
COUNTRY INSIGHTS
Inflation and economic growth slow as government negotiates 2022 budget amendment
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Report · 13 Sep 2022
Monthly inflation in August (0.21%) slowed sharply compared to average monthly inflation in January-July 2022 (0.76%). Economic activity growth also slowed in July (4.7% y/y). Even so, accumulated economic growth from January-July was 5.5%, compared to the same period in 2021. The Central Bank...
Threat of hyperinflation looms
VENEZUELA · Report · 13 Sep 2022
In August it became clear that hyperinflation was stalking Venezuela. After 11 months in the single digits, inflation jumped to 16 percent. The trigger was a non-coordination between the Treasury and the Central Bank of Venezuela (Banco Central de Venezuela, or BCV). The BCV reduced the supply of...
The latest polls show different scenarios, Lula received Marina Silva’s support yesterday, and Bolsonaro will give an interview to SBT tonight
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 13 Sep 2022
The FSB/BTG Pactual poll published yesterday showed a reduction in the distance between Lula and Bolsonaro from 8 to 6 percentage points. The IPEC poll published last night, on the other hand, showed Lula's advantage increasing in relation to Bolsonaro. Yesterday, Lula received Marina Silva's (Re...
Armenia appeals for Russian help as Azerbaijan attacks
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 13 Sep 2022 · 1 response
On September 12 Armenia invoked its defensive alliance with Russia. There have been several exchanges of fire, and both Azerbaijan and Armenia claim to have killed enemy soldiers. Armenia says that Azerbaijan is trying to advance into internationally recognized Armenian territory. They also accus...
Factors that may affect the elections and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 12 Sep 2022
Minister Rosa Weber assumes the presidency of the Supreme Federal Court (STF), replacing Luiz Fux. The Court also concludes the judgment on the national nursing salary floor. This week's Talking Points: Factors that may affect the elections Three weeks before the first round of the elect...
The Challenges and Projections for 2023
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Forecast · 12 Sep 2022
From both the international and domestic standpoints, the economic scenario for 2023 is challenging. Global growth is decelerating, more so in Europe than in the United States, a pattern that also holds sway in China and the great majority of other emerging countries. As a leading exporter of com...
Politics: AMLO makes considerable progress in his political-military project and his drive to split the opposition
MEXICO · Report · 12 Sep 2022
In the past week and a half President López Obrador succeeded in his controversial proposal for putting the ostensibly civil National Guard under the direct control of the Ministry of Defense until 2024. The initiative fast tracked through both chambers of Congress and deepened divisions within o...
The federal budget still in surplus in 8M22 but is likely to turn into deficit already in 9M22 as expenditures to catch up with amended plan
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 12 Sep 2022
The Ministry of Finance reported that the federal budget revenues and expenditures reached R17.60 trln and R17.46 trln accordingly implying as surplus of R0.14 trln. In August alone revenues reached R1.83 trln while expenditures were at R.2.17 trln. Hence, the federal budget deficit in August was...
Minister Rosa Weber assumes the presidency of the STF today, the Court adjudicates the case suspending the law that institutes the national nursing salary floor, and the latest poll shows the distance between Lula and Bolsonaro at 6 percentage points
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 12 Sep 2022
Minister Rosa Weber will remain in the position only until October 2023, as she will turn 75 years old and will have to retire, as per the Constitution. Even with the change of command in the Court, the relationship between the Executive and the Judicial branches is likely to remain unstable. For...
Economics: The current administration’s record of excess optimism points to what we can expect from the 2023 budget
MEXICO · Report · 12 Sep 2022
The main macroeconomic assumptions contained in the government’s General Economic Policy Criteria (CGPE) projections for 2022 proved to be excessively optimistic, just as we predicted when they were handed to Congress last September. Today, the country faces a context marked by steep inflation a...
Economic growth remains robust into Q3
ISRAEL · Report · 12 Sep 2022
1. The latest CBS business survey points to steady growth and improved expectations going forward. 2. The fiscal accounts reflect a surplus of 0.6% in the last 12 months, similar to last month's reading. 3. We expect a CPI of -0.2% in August due to the sharp decline in petrol prices.
Ukraine suffers blackouts as Russia attacks facilities
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 12 Sep 2022
On September 11 Kyiv reported that there were power cuts and water outages in much of the country. Kharkiv was severely impacted. Ukraine has made major gains in the east. Russia claims that it was withdrawing to regroup but they have had to leave behind dozens of tanks. Some Ukrainians claimed t...
Ukrainians advance into Donbas
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 11 Sep 2022
On September 11 the Ukrainians continued to move south and east from Kharkiv. There were unconfirmed reports of fighting near Donetsk Airport. Ukraine claims to have liberated Izyum, taken hundreds of prisoners and advanced 70km. The Russians reinforced Kherson in August 2022. This required them...
Economic growth remains robust into Q3
ISRAEL · In Brief · 11 Sep 2022
The Business Sentiment Survey points to steady and strong growth. The current conditions index increased by 1.2 points to a level above that of 2019. The expectations for activity in the next three months pushed higher to a net balance of +8.3 points. The hi-tech sector remains optimistic regar...
Taşıma suyla değirmen dönmez*
TURKEY · Forecast · 11 Sep 2022 · 4 responses
The key questions of near-term Turkish macroeconomics, which we’ve all been grappling with for some time, are unchanged. Can Ankara avoid another major “currency event” until May 2023 -- the date we now think the elections will be held -- and if it can, could it also tangibly turn the economy aro...