GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights

Generous pension promises were made to civil servants in previous decades. The fiscal consequences of these promises started growing with rising longevity. In 2003, it was estimated that the implicit pension debt, on account of all government workers or pensioners (summing across all government o...

Private consumption rebounds in early 2022

ISRAEL · Report · 04 Apr 2022

1. Israeli institutions and the BoI were the dominant players in the FX market in Q421. 2. Private consumption rebounded in January-February as Omicron restrictions were lifted. 3. We expect a sharp increase in the “travel abroad” CPI item in March-April, contributing to higher inflation.

Big election surprise, Fidesz stronger than ever, political analysts all badly missed the boat

HUNGARY · In Brief · 03 Apr 2022

The parliamentary election took place on Sunday, April 3, with a relatively high 68% participation rate. With close to 84% of the vote counted, Fidesz appears to have acquired 135 out of the total 199 parliamentary seats, two seats more than what they have had so far. This represents 67.8%, meani...

Forecasting in a time of Knightian uncertainty

TURKEY · Report · 03 Apr 2022

Given the extremely fluid and uncertain backdrop, we mainly focus on the very near term and share some illustrative forecasts, in a Q&A format, postponing our flagship quarterly/forecast report to later this month, with our deepest apologies. Contrary to numerous accounts accusing Turkey of be...

Private consumption rebounds in early 2022

ISRAEL · In Brief · 03 Apr 2022

Consumer spending has accelerated Credit card purchases increased by 1.8% m/m (in real terms) in February, following 2% in January as the Omicron impact dissipates. Chain store sales declined by 1% in January-February as consumer spending shifts more towards spending on services. This follows a 4...

The 39th day of war: mass grave of executed civilians in Bucha

UKRAINE · In Brief · 03 Apr 2022

Shock and fury. Russians withdrew from Bucha and Hostomel, two satellites of Kyiv which faced the hottest fights in the battle for Kyiv. But little joy was derived from this withdrawal. The horrors Ukrainian soldiers saw when they entered the towns would make you shudder. Corpses of civilians wit...

US gives another USD 300 million in security assistance to Ukraine

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 02 Apr 2022

On April 1 the US said this includes laser-guided rocket systems, drones, armored vehicles, night vision goggles, ammunition and medicines. The US emphasized its ''unwavering commitment to Ukraine.''Zelensky was sounding downbeat a week ago - as though Ukraine could not hold out much longer. This...

GULF WEEKLY: S&P positive on Saudi, OPEC+ tapers slowly, Q4 GDP for Qatar and Bahrain

GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 01 Apr 2022

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * OPEC+ stuck with its standard taper and didn’t apply the new baselines for Gulf states. Meanwhile, the US announced a record strategic oil reserve release. * Ukraine’s president addressed the Doha Forum, and Mubadala will p...

India's current account deficit records a sharp surge

INDIA · In Brief · 01 Apr 2022

India's current account deficit widened to nine year high of USD 23 billion in the October-December quarter of 2021-22. Expressed in terms of GDP, the current account deficit surged to 2.7 percent of GDP. In the previous quarter (July-September), the current account deficit was USD 9.9 billion, a...

Ten government ministers left office to run in the October elections, the party window closes today, and the Senate will analyze official appointments next week

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 01 Apr 2022

Minister Braga Netto has left the Ministry of Defense and is currently the most likely candidate to run as Vice President for President Jair Bolsonaro. Sérgio Moro announced his departure from the Podemos to join the União Brasil and said that, at the moment, he is giving up on his presidential c...

Markets are too optimistic, but mainly due to technical reasons

RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 01 Apr 2022

The Russian markets were traded in an optimistic mood this week. The ruble appreciated from R/$96 to 80 as markets reacted positively to the decision of the Russian authorities to switch gas payments to rubles. Meanwhile, in reality, it may have only a marginal effect - if implemented. The main r...

Ukraine attacks Russian territory

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 01 Apr 2022

On March 30 Ukrainian helicopters attacked a fuel storage facility in Belgorod. Two people were injured and none killed. A fire destroyed tonnes of fuel. The governor of the region confirmed this on his Telegram channel. This is the first time that the Ukrainian military has crossed the border in...

Russia political/pandemic update: the changing quarantine regime

RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 31 Mar 2022

Ever since the Russian president launched a special mission in Ukraine, Russia became quite quickly disconnected from many countries. Meanwhile, Russia’s daily COVID-19 incidence rate fell sharply from around 200K in mid-February to around 20K by the end of March. Given that Russia was almost com...

Inflation y-o-y to reach 20% soon and erode domestic demand

RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 31 Mar 2022

Rosstat reported that inflation w-o-w in seven days ending on March 25, reached 1.16%. Prices keep rising across the board. Inflation MTD and YTD reached 6.60% and 8.91% while y-o-y figure moved up to 15.66% as estimated by the Economics Ministry. Inflation w-o-w moderated but it is likely that i...

Guatemala: Robust growth to gradually fade

CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 31 Mar 2022

For second year in a row, Guatemala´s performance has been better than that of its regional partners. The economy showed strong growth, good external accounts, a notable improvement in the fiscal area and stable macro prices. Room for a second rebound will fade in 2022 and disappear in 2023. Guat...