GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights

With 2024 presidential elections in sight, the government's goal continues to be to mitigate inflation and "de-dollarize" the economy with measures that bolster the demand for bolivars and contain dollar appreciation against the bolivar even if it means staying on the current modest and unequal e...

Monetary tightening expected to be fairly aggressive

ISRAEL · In Brief · 15 Mar 2022

Another upside inflation surprise Inflation in February was up 0.7% m/m and 3.5% y/y (accelerating from 3.1% last month), above market consensus of 3.3%. Core inflation (the CPI excluding energy and fresh produce) accelerated to 3% y/y from 2.7%. February’s upside surprise came from basically two...

Son of Turkmen President to succeed him

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 15 Mar 2022

On March 15 the result of the election was declared. Serdar Berdymukhammedov won 73% of the vote and the turnout was 97%. Public sector workers had been told to vote on pain of dismissal. There were 8 other candidates, all of whom were pro-regime and solely standing for optical purposes. The elec...

The main focus for the week is the increase in commodity prices, and there is a lull in congressional activities due to electoral negotiations

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 15 Mar 2022

The consequences of the war between Russia and Ukraine, especially the impact on commodity prices in Brazil, will be the main focus for the week. One of the biggest concerns in the market and in the business sector in general remains the truck drivers issue. While there is some discontent due to ...

2.5 million Ukrainian refugees causing strain in Europe

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 15 Mar 2022

Since February 24 over 2.5 million Ukrainians have fled the country. This figure is only going to grow as the Russian Army penetrates deeper into Ukraine. There are other Ukrainians who are displaced within Ukraine.Ukraine has a population of 42 million. Some of them are pro-Russian and will not ...

Economics: Oil spike adds to pressure on peso for 2022 and public finance perspectives

MEXICO · Report · 14 Mar 2022

The considerable rise in the price of oil arising in response to the war in Ukraine and its broader geopolitical ramifications has been the source of intense discussion among analysts and authorities regarding its potential impact on Mexico. It is important to consider the diversity of such effec...

Israeli saving institutions purchased 3.5bn USD in January

ISRAEL · In Brief · 14 Mar 2022

Israeli institutions purchased 3.5bn USD net in January, following purchases of 1.6bn in December. In January, institutions purchased assets abroad of 1.0bn USD and purchased FX via derivatives by an additional 2.5bn. Global equity markets declined sharply in January, forcing Israeli institutions...

The Brazilian Economy in a Turbulent World

BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 14 Mar 2022

Before the war caused by the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the IMF had projected a significant slowdown of the global economy this year. With the war and the corresponding shocks to fuel and food prices, the deceleration should be greater. Before the war’s outbreak, Brazil’s monetary policy al...

Politics: Law enforcement system in crisis, with reversals and new scandals

MEXICO · Report · 14 Mar 2022

The Mexican prosecutorial system as represented by the Federal Attorney General’s Office (FGR) has been unable to implement the promised modernization and, in fact, is mired in new scandals. Despite broad recognition across the political spectrum that the country’s prosecutorial system is in need...

Everyone woke up worried

COLOMBIA · Report · 14 Mar 2022 · 1 response

As of March 14th, we assign a 40% probability to a Petro victory. Petro or the center-right candidate have a similar predicament, namely the support of its base and the support of the undecided, swing voters, not aligned politically. This is a delicate and beautiful balance to be forged either...

Kazakhstan restricts taking currency and gold abroad

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 14 Mar 2022 · 1 response

On March 14 the president signed a decree limiting people to taking USD 10,000 in cash or gold abroad. This is due to the economic contraction in Russia, which has impacted Kazakhstan. The KZT has fallen 20% in the last 18 days.Kazakh banks no longer give their clients USD due to the paucity of t...

Legislative decisions that are beyond controversial

ECUADOR · In Brief · 14 Mar 2022

Last Thursday, the Assembly voted in favor of granting amnesty to all of those prosecuted for violent acts of public property destruction carried out during the riots of October 2019. Albeit some of the cases could fall within the category of political persecution, there is no doubt according to ...

War keeps the economy as a priority and other weekly topics

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 14 Mar 2022

Bolsonaro holds the first ministerial meeting of 2022. It should be the final meeting with the current team, as nine ministers intend to run for elected office in October. Governors can question the law dealing with the ICMS on fuels in the STF. The CCJ of the Senate discusses Tax Reform. In term...

2022 Inflation revised down

VENEZUELA · Report · 14 Mar 2022

Because we see the central bank holding to its interventionist strong-bolivar approach to inflation containment and the government staying in control of its spending, we revise down our annual inflation forecast for 2022 to 143 percent. However, we expect fiscal discipline to start to relax in an...

The fuel issue remains a priority on the agenda, Bolsonaro holds this year’s first ministerial meeting on Thursday, and two new presidential polls will be published this week

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 14 Mar 2022

News circulated last week that truck drivers may organize a strike due to the increase in fuel prices. However, we believe this is unlikely to happen, as they recognize the government is putting in a great deal of effort to mitigate the effects of the price increases and that the increase is caus...