EURHUF at record high today

HUNGARY · In Brief · 13 Jun 2022

The forint weakened to EURHUF 402, a historic record, today, before settling down at a bit stronger level but still north of the 400 line. Immediately it was about the global stockmarket selldown and the strong dollar, fundamentally it was about everything from the war impact to rising inflation,...

The reminiscence vote for former President Lula and other weekly topics

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 13 Jun 2022

The Senate may vote on proposals related to the ICMS tax on fuel, electricity, transportation and telecommunications. The Corpus Christi holiday may affect the pace of voting in the National Congress. In terms of the economy, the Central Bank's decision on interest rates stands out. This week'...

Consumer confidence improves modestly, trade point point to steady growth; all supportive of steady monetary tightening

ISRAEL · In Brief · 13 Jun 2022

Consumer confidence (CBS) improved in May to -14 points from -17 in April. This is the highest print in 2022. The future expectations components, both on the personal level and regarding the economy as a whole improved in May, while the current situation component remained stable. This improved c...

Thursday is a national holiday, the Senate may vote on three proposals relating to the fuels issue, and the Copom will meet to decide on the interest rate

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 13 Jun 2022

Thursday's holiday may reduce the pace of activity in the National Congress, especially in the House. There are three proposals on the fuels issue in the Senate: one on essential services and the ICMS tax, another on the competitiveness of biofuels, and a third on federal reimbursements to lower ...

It won’t be easy for foreign firms to leave China

CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 13 Jun 2022 · 1 response

Special points to highlight in this issue: * The Chinese trade surplus in May was by far the largest trade surplus ever recorded by China for that month. For the first five months of the year China’s trade surplus was 42 percent greater than during the same period last year. Last year’s trade...

Disputed taxes and their implications for the measured fiscal situation

INDIA · Report · 13 Jun 2022

In this report, we show a weakness of conventional fiscal data. Many times, it appears that taxes are paid by a private person, but simultaneously litigated. The stock of this litigation has risen to economically significant values. Alongside this, there is evidence that the win rate for the gove...

Conditions support steady aggressive tightening

ISRAEL · Report · 13 Jun 2022

• Recent economic indicators point to fairly robust growth and steady business sector optimism. • We expect May’s CPI to reach 0.8% m/m, at the high end of consensus. • Conditions support steady monetary tightening in the coming year (0.5% at next rate decision on July 4th), to 2.75% one yea...

The pendulum has (already) swung

UKRAINE · In Brief · 13 Jun 2022

Over the recent weeks military experts and journalists have suddenly turned quite optimistic on developments at the front. Fights are still extremely tough, and casualties on Ukrainian side are very high. Nevertheless, all people following the military actions closely have become positive after m...

Off into a crucial poll-free week

COLOMBIA · In Brief · 12 Jun 2022

Russia hands out passports in Ukraine as people emigrate from Russia

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 12 Jun 2022

Anti-war Russians are emigrating to European countries such as Croatia. They want to get to the EU, which opposes Russia's invasion of Ukraine. It is now very difficult for Russians to obtain visas to enter the EU. Some have come illegally. Some Russians travel to Bosnia, which is a non-EU countr...

Conditions support steady aggressive tightening

ISRAEL · In Brief · 12 Jun 2022

We expect May’s CPI to reach 0.8%, at the high end of consensus • We expect higher prices in food, apparel, travel abroad and housing. • Inflation is expected to accelerate to 4.4% y/y in May from 4.0% in April. • Inflation y/y is expected to continue to move higher towards 5% in coming months, s...

No country for rabbits

TURKEY · Report · 12 Jun 2022

President Erdogan announced his intention to run again, thus officially starting the presidential race. While the announcement was a statement of the obvious, it triggers several tremors, as well as revealing the strategies of the opposing camps. Spoiler alert: The announcement has no bearing on ...

The next-to-last one before poll silence

COLOMBIA · In Brief · 11 Jun 2022

Trends persist

COLOMBIA · In Brief · 10 Jun 2022

South Africa records its seventh consecutive current account surplus during Q1-2022

SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 10 Jun 2022

The latest current account data released by the South African Reserve Bank shows that, during the first quarter of 2022, South Africa’s current account recorded its eighth surplus since the first quarter of 2020 (with a deficit having been recorded only during Q2 2020). The Q1-2022 surplus, widen...