GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights

This is the last week of recess in the National Congress, which returns to work on February 2. Left-wing parties discuss the formation of a party federation in support of former President Lula's (PT) candidacy for the Planalto Palace. Two new voting intention polls on the upcoming elections will ...

Global Inflation – Control and Consequences

BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 24 Jan 2022

There are no more doubts: the current global inflation does not derive from a series of independent shocks, whose effects will disappear without the need for actions by the central banks. And the rupture of supply chains is only a small part of the problem, whose main cause is the monetary stimul...

Russian macro: the 2022 budget to be amended as revenues soar

RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 24 Jan 2022

In contrast to the planned deficit, the federal budget posted a surplus of around R0.5 trln, (i.e., below 0.4% of GDP) in 2021 amid soaring revenues, and the 2022 budget is already in question once again. The 2021 budget remained in surplus despite the fact that expenditures have been raised sign...

Turkey Covid Watch - January 24, 2022

TURKEY · Report · 24 Jan 2022

We have decided to resume our biweekly Covid Watch (CW) because of the rising number of cases, which had stabilized at just under 20K around mid-November when we put the CW on holiday. The cases have begun to rise in late December, and have been fluctuating around 68K, on average, in the past cou...

The CBR/ Minfin duo suspends FX interventions

RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 24 Jan 2022

Today Central bank announced it is suspending daily FX purchases on the open market. These interventions are stipulated by the fiscal rule. Geopolitical tensions created significant pressure over the Russian assets since the start of the year. Since the beginning of the year the 5Y CDS contracts ...

Germany adopts less belligerent tone towards Russia as US evacuates diplomats from Ukraine

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 24 Jan 2022

On January 20 the head of the German Navy was fired for saying Russia will not attack Ukraine. He also said all Russia wanted and deserved was respect. Ukraine expressed its dismay and said the admiral was like a Nazi occupier.Germany has lobbied against cutting Russia off from the SWIFT system. ...

The 2022 Federal Budget was published in today’s Official Gazette, this is the last week of the congressional recess, and left-wing parties should ask for an extension of the party federation deadline

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 24 Jan 2022

Last week, President Bolsonaro said he was forced to veto R$ 2.8 billion in the budget, but a total of approximately R$ 3.1 billion should be vetoed, specifically to cover mandatory expenses. This is the last week of recess for Congress, which resumes activity on February 2. The pandemic will con...

Politics: Much at stake in 2022 state elections for both governing and opposition forces

MEXICO · Report · 24 Jan 2022 · 1 response

The significance of next June’s elections resides in the elements it can provide us to assess the Morena party’s performance at the ballot box two years ahead of the next presidential vote. The few polls that are public and relatively reliable suggest at this point that Morena will win five out o...

Some deceleration due to Omicron

ISRAEL · Report · 24 Jan 2022

* We maintain our call for a rate hike on April 11, but much will depend on the pace of recovery from Omicron. * Indicators for January point to some deceleration of activity due to Omicron restrictions. * The labor market continued to improve modestly in December. * Job vacancies ...

Belarus to hold referendum on constitution

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 24 Jan 2022

On January 20 it was announced that a referendum shall take place on February 27. If the proposals are passed (which is virtually certain) then Lukashenka will be able to rule until 2035. It would make him immune from prosecution. Parliament would be degraded and the All Belarus People's Assembly...

Analysts expect a base rate increase from tomorrow's Monetary Council meeting

HUNGARY · In Brief · 24 Jan 2022

The monthly rate-setting meeting is due tomorrow. Importantly, the 1-week deposit rate (= the effective sterilisation rate) will not be a subject for decision, as that one is set at the weekly depo tenders on Thursday's. So what is at stake for the upcoming meeting is three things: (a) the base r...

Some deceleration due to Omicron

ISRAEL · In Brief · 23 Jan 2022

Economic indicators point to some deceleration Credit card purchase declined by 9% in the first 17 days of January as did the Google mobility to the workplace, compared to December; due to the Omicron virus. Expectations are still for a short wave and minimal impact on the economy.Policy makers h...

Stable TL, unhinged everything else

TURKEY · Report · 23 Jan 2022 · 1 response

First batch of polls from January reveal a few percentage points of increases for Erdogan and AKP (not MHP). Much has been made about these polls, reading into them a permanent rebound in the fortunes of the President and his party. We respectfully disagree. The opposition is catching flak fro...

Current political situation in India - five states go to the polls in February 2022

INDIA · Report · 21 Jan 2022

Five states in India will go to the polls in February 2022. These assembly elections, particularly in the state of Uttar Pradesh, are being seen as semi-finals for the parliamentary elections in 2024. In particular, if the Bhartiya Janata Party (BJP), which is the ruling party in Uttar Pradesh a...

President Lasso carries an important agenda to China

ECUADOR · Report · 21 Jan 2022

Thanks to the fragmentation and disagreements among legislators, it proved easier for the government to raise taxes than to reduce significantly public expenditures in 2021. Even so, $1000 million of additional tax collection and $2,000 million in higher oil revenue, together with a reduction of ...