GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights

On January 19 Antony Blinken arrived in Kyiv for talks. The US warned Ukraine that Russia could attack any moment. Diplomatic efforts between the West and Russia have come to nought. Ukrainians are hurt that the US negotiated about them in their absence. However, the US made no concession to Russ...

Nazarbayev says there is no power struggle in Kazakhstan

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 19 Jan 2022

On January 18 the former president made his first TV appearance since December 2021. There has been speculation that he had left the country. Nazarbayev said that Tokayev has ''full power'' and confirmed that Tokayev is chair of the Security Council.Nazarbayev said he is a pensioner and still liv...

Economics: Mexican economy weak and still struggling to recover pre-pandemic levels

MEXICO · Report · 18 Jan 2022

Economic indicators corresponding to 4Q21 that have been released in the past few weeks project a weakening of the economy. This is reflected in both important components of aggregate demand as well as in production and services indexes. The most recent results not only imply lower growth at the ...

PMI declines in December

ISRAEL · In Brief · 18 Jan 2022

The PMI declined by 2.5 points in December to 47.8, reflecting a contraction in activity for the first time in four months.The main component which declined sharply was the production output component, and this could be due to spiking Covid infections keeping some workers at home. The domestic or...

Strong 2021 current account amid growing non-energy exports, higher energy prices, and a not-too-negative services balance

RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 18 Jan 2022

The Central bank reported that the Russian current account surplus reached $120.3 bn in 2021, which was a bit less than expected as the investment income balance turned more negative ($41.6 bn in 2021 versus $34.1 bn in 2020). Russia’s trade surplus widened to $185.9 bn in 2021 as exports reached...

Flash report: After four months of negotiations, the government and Minera Panama agree on a new contract

PANAMA · Report · 18 Jan 2022

The contract between Minera Panamá, S.A., owner and operator of the largest copper mine in the country, was renegotiated yesterday, after more than four months of discussions between an ad-hoc commission appointed by the Cortizo administration and representatives of the company. The proposal acce...

Pressure on the Federal Government increases, public servants mobilize in favor of salary raises, and congressional leaders discuss a solution to the fuel price issue

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 18 Jan 2022

The demands on the government are numerous: increasing the number of families benefiting from Auxílio Brasil, correcting the income tax table, approving a new Refis, salary increases for the civil service, and the issue of fuel prices. When the National Congress resumes activity, these pressures ...

Politics: Morena remains top dog, but faces serious challenges ahead of 2024

MEXICO · Report · 18 Jan 2022

Morena is still clearly the front-runner in public opinion polls. However, recent developments have highlighted internal divisions and public dissatisfaction with its elected representatives that could complicate the party’s prospects in the 2024 presidential elections. Recent public sparring ...

Inflation and Economic Activity

BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 18 Jan 2022

Brazil’s inflation in 2021 amounted to 10.1%, only behind Turkey and Argentina. The good news is that with the Central Bank continuing to “do whatever it takes”, inflation will decline during 2022, but the central target will only be attained again in 2023. To achieve this outcome, the SELIC rate...

Castillo realigns political support; mining protests introduce risks to growth

PERU · Report · 18 Jan 2022

The rapid fall in President Pedro Castillo’s popularity since he formed his government on July 28th has been surprising. Most previous presidents have either continued to sail for a longer “honeymoon period” on the wave of the high popularity that carried them into office, or have at least able t...

The electorate's demands and other weekly topics

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 18 Jan 2022

On Tuesday, January 18, public servants will mobilize in favor of salary raises. On the same day, the government will start issuing Auxílio Brasil payments, of R$ 400. A new poll on the presidential succession will be published on Thursday, and President Bolsonaro has until Friday to sanction the...

UK sends arms to Ukraine

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 18 Jan 2022

On January 17 the British Defense Secretary announced the shipment of anti-armor defensive weapons and some training personnel. London emphasized that these weapons are short range and do not menace Russia. The number of system sent has not been disclosed. The same day, the UK invited the Russian...

More power supply worries

PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 18 Jan 2022

In a commentary last year on domestic inflation concerns,[1] we cited the sufficiency of electric power supply as one of the risks that have macro level implications.[2]Barely two weeks into the new year, we are seeing just how idiosyncratic the risks affecting this complex sector have become. As...

We expect a rate hike on April 11

ISRAEL · Report · 18 Jan 2022

1. December’s CPI surprised on the upside as core inflation accelerated to 2.7% y/y. 2. We expect inflation to reach 1.7% this year on the back of wage pressure and higher rental prices, partially offset by shekel appreciation. 3. We expect the BoI to hike on April 11 due to high inflat...

Moldova struggles to pay for gas

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 17 Jan 2022

On January 13 the country paid its gas debt to Gazprom for gas bought in December 2021. Moldova is the second poorest country in Europe. It has trouble paying for gas as world prices are sky high.In October 2021 there was a state of emergency over gas prices. The country started buying gas from E...