GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights

The approval of the budget for 2022 made obvious what observers already knew. The spending cap rule was shattered, but not only to help the poorest households. The creation of the Auxílio Brasil program to replace Bolsa Família was the Trojan horse of the battle over spending. The moratorium on p...

Government cabinet decided to halt the rise of interest rates on households' mortgage loans

HUNGARY · In Brief · 22 Dec 2021

Today, the government cabinet decided to freeze the interest rates of existing (= not new) variable-rate mortgage loans at the end-October, 2021 level for the whole of H1 2022. This means that banks will not be able to charge more than this level even if the loan contract allowed them to do so.Po...

Industrial output up by 5.2% y-o-y in 11M21

RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 22 Dec 2021

Rosstat reported that industrial output increased y-o-y by 5.3% and 5.2% in November and 11M21. As regularly happened in 2020 and 2021, statistics for the preceding month were revised up. This revision was quite significant as, for instance, previously reported y-o-y October growth in manufacturi...

Yuan may appreciate further in 2022, but not hit 6 to the dollar

CHINA · Report · 22 Dec 2021

Growth continues to be weak. In November, industrial output grew 3.8% y/y, down 1.1 pps from Q3, much lower than the growth rates of recent years. Investment is also low, and was up 7.9% y/y, and down 1.2 pps from January-June. Its adjusted growth rate is instead negative. The real estate market ...

The political winds blow hot and cold for President Lasso

ECUADOR · Report · 22 Dec 2021

The Comptroller General exonerated President Lasso from any involvement in the Pandora papers. In this context, the case was archived, and the dark clouds of a possible impeachment blew away. But the relationship with the Assembly is still complicated and even more uncertain than at the beginn...

Is it game over?

PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 22 Dec 2021

Pulse Asia released today the results of its survey of on voters’ presidential preferences conducted in the first week of December. The late dictator’s son, former Senator Ferdinand Marcos, Jr., was the top pick, with a majority (53%) of the respondents saying they will vote for him if elections ...

The indexation scheme: some tentative scenarios

TURKEY · In Brief · 21 Dec 2021 · 3 responses

The Ministry of Treasury and Finance released a one-pager today (link here; in Turkish) providing a bit more detail on the planned F/X-indexation scheme. As we wrote yesterday, and it is now widely available in open media sources, the scheme aims to protect TL deposits against exchange rate-drive...

Consumer credit growth decelerated sharply amid a strong increase of household deposits in November – well before the recent key rate hike

RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 21 Dec 2021

Central Bank of Russia reported that the total credit to households grew by a mere 0.9% m-o-m in November, having decelerated sharply from 1.6% m-o-m in October and average monthly 2.0% seen in 2Q21 and 3Q21. At the same time, household deposits in November increased by 1.7% m-o-m, having fallen ...

Monetary policy considerations

PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 21 Dec 2021

Although central banks around the world pursued similar strategies of pouring monies into their economies in the wake of the pandemic, it is clear from their divergent moves this year that there is no one-size-fits-all exit strategy. With the most-watched central bank, the US Fed, signaling readi...

Politics: Opposition mired in internal crises and low approval, despite poor AMLO results

MEXICO · Report · 20 Dec 2021

Mexico is experiencing several economic and political negative effects as a result of President Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s failed policies. Yet the two main opposition parties, the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) and the National Action Party (PAN) are bogged down in multifaceted crise...

Economics: Looking ahead to 2022 and beyond

MEXICO · Report · 20 Dec 2021

In the last issue for 2021, in place of our usual monthly review we are providing an overview of the most significant features of the economic outlook for 2022 as it currently stands Despite the extent to which the Mexican economy rebounded in late 2020 and the first half of the current year, we...

Russian Ambassador attends inauguration in Transdnistria, irking Moldova

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 20 Dec 2021

On December 19 the Moldovan government expressed its protest at the decision. Transdnistira effectively seceded from Moldova in 1991, and the Russian Army is there. Moscow says its troops are peacekeepers. Transdnistria is a Russian-speaking region of Moldova. The rest of Moldova is mostly Romani...

Russian Macro: The Central Bank Turning Increasingly Hawkish

RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 20 Dec 2021

On December 17, the Central Bank of Russia raised its key rate by 100 bps to 8.5% and mentioned that a further rate hike could be possible in mid-February if inflation expectations remain high and inflation itself stays elevated. The regulator one more time referred to its previous views suggesti...

Kyrgyzstan files lawsuit against Canadian gold company

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 20 Dec 2021

On December 16 the suit was filed against Centerra Gold for violating the rights of its workers at Kumtor Mine. The company ran the mine for over 20 years. The company was said to have stopped the administrator from having access to the mine's computers when the government assumed temporary contr...

Central Asia's relations with the Taliban

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 20 Dec 2021

The Collective Security Treaty Organization is carrying out military drills along the Afghan Border in December 2021. The CSTO comprises 6 former Soviet republics led by Russia. Uzbekistan is not in the CSTO but has been attending some CSTO conferences on Afghanistan. Russia would dearly like to ...