GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights

* Russia’s Gazprom increases some supply to the EU as Belarus cuts it. * US allegations that Russia is building up troops near Ukraine are met with fierce denial. * Belarus is being sanctioned again by the EU for allowing thousands of illegal immigrants to gather on the Polish border.

The forint is a bit too weak, though not dramatically

HUNGARY · In Brief · 23 Nov 2021

The current EURHUF 371 exchange rate is a bit too weak from the MNB's point of view.The press keeps stressing that the forint has weakened to its historical record low. This does not mean a lot, of course, but somehow the press tends to be in love with records. A more reasonable way of assessment...

The House may vote on the Auxílio Brasil MP, the rapporteur of the Precatórios PEC should finalize his report today, and the Senate may vote on the bill that deals with the exchange rate framework

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 23 Nov 2021

The rapporteur of the Auxílio Brasil MP, Deputy Marcelo Aro, included the annual increase of the program’s payments based on inflation. The extreme poverty line will increase from R$ 100 to R$ 105, and the poverty line, from R$ 200 to R$ 210. The text may still undergo changes during the voting p...

The IMF approves a very special decision for Ukraine

UKRAINE · In Brief · 23 Nov 2021

The IMF Executive Board finally approved second review of the ongoing SBA program for Ukraine and extended the current program until end-June 2022. The completion of the review gives the green light for a $699 million wire to Ukraine. The press-release from the IMF was concise. In essence, the re...

Economics: Tourism and related branches extend gradual recovery but face new hurdles

MEXICO · Report · 22 Nov 2021

The most tourism-intense regions of the country and the economic sectors most dependent on the travel and hospitality business continue to mend, but at such a sluggish pace that remains far below pre-pandemic levels of activity. For roughly a decade, tourism served as a major catalyst of construc...

No letup in political risk, as government prepares tax package

PERU · Report · 22 Nov 2021

When Mirtha Vásquez was chosen by President Pedro Castillo to replace Guido Bellido as prime minister, most analysts took this as an indication that the president was moving toward a more moderate, conciliatory sociopolitical stance, and markets rallied in response. In fact, out of the eight mini...

Politics: Decision to ram through the 2022 spending budget sets the stage for future conflict

MEXICO · Report · 22 Nov 2021

The Chamber of Deputies approved November 14, the 2022 federal expenditure budget with 273 votes in favor and 213 opposed. The governing camp introduced only two changes to the administration’s original proposal, which now projects slightly more than 7 trillion pesos in spending, but rejected abs...

A package of benefits and other weekly topics

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 22 Nov 2021

The House included in its agenda the provisional measure (MP) that created the Auxílio Brasil and the urgent status request for the railroad framework bill and the carbon market bill, among others. In the Senate, Fernando Bezerra submits his report on the Precatórios PEC. Senator Angelo Coronel m...

Trade Balance and Balance of Payments

BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 22 Nov 2021

The recession of 2020 undermined imports, contributing to a steep decline in the current accounts, which were not sufficient to offset the outflow of capital. With this, the balance of payments was negative, while the foreign exchange flows were partly satisfied by sales of the Central Bank in th...

Forecast revisions after the mid-term elections

ARGENTINA · Forecast · 22 Nov 2021

The defeat of the government coalition in the midterm elections seems to have encouraged President Alberto Fernandez to pursue an agreement with the IMF. He probably considers that going into arrears with the official creditors will affect governance in the two remaining years of his mandate, whi...

Rates on hold, FX intervention dependent on the state of the economy

ISRAEL · In Brief · 22 Nov 2021

There were no surprises in the rate hold decision. The statement noted that those countries which hiked have inflation above target. In Israel market expectations are at the high end of target (but within) and forecasters and the BoI model expect lower inflation in the next 12 months. Regarding F...

The rapporteur of the Precatórios PEC should submit his report on the text tomorrow, the Senate’s CAE has scheduled a public hearing on Petrobras’s pricing policy, and the PSDB primary election was postponed

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 22 Nov 2021

The goal is for the vote on the Precatórios PEC to take place in the Committee this week. The government will have to change the text and, with that, part of it may have to return to the House. Petrobras President Joaquim Silva e Luna, Economy Minister Paulo Guedes and Minister of Mines and Energ...

Shekel appreciation continues; expected to moderate inflation

ISRAEL · Report · 22 Nov 2021

GDP growth is expected to reach close to 6.5% this year and 4.8% in 2022; the output gap will narrow but will still remain somewhat disinflationary. Inflation is expected to reach 1.5% NTM, as a strong shekel offsets (in part) other inflationary factors. We do not expect a rate change today; the ...

Inflation in Russia at 8.1%

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 22 Nov 2021

On November 18 the Russian Statistics Agency (Rosstat) said that inflation in October 2021 was at its highest level since 2015. The Central Bank of Russia has raised interest rates several times in a failed attempt to curb this. The key rate is 7.5% and is surely going to rise. It is anticipated ...

Will the President back Ferdinand Marcos, Jr.? (2)

PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 22 Nov 2021

The odds have practically fallen to zero following the President’s non-cryptic remark last week that a presidential candidate uses cocaine. Without naming Marcos (popularly called by his nickname “Bongbong” and shortened to “BBM”), he described the candidate as rich but said that he was a “weak l...