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Events
Databanks
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Argentina databank May 19 -
Brazil Economics databank May 19
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Central America databank May 1
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Chile databank Apr 7
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China databank Mar 21
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Colombia databank May 12
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Dominican Republic databank Apr 28
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Ecuador databank Apr 22
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Gulf Countries databank May 16
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Hungary databank Apr 22
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India databank Apr 28
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Mexico databank May 12
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Panama databank May 13
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Peru databank Apr 28
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Philippines databank May 8
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Poland databank Apr 29
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Russia Economics databank May 12
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South Africa databank May 6
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Turkey databank Apr 24
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Ukraine databank May 12
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Venezuela databank May 5
NEWS FLASH
WEBINAR - LATIN AMERICA: FISCAL PRESSURES AND POLITICAL SHIFTS...
COUNTRY INSIGHTS
Politics: Low turnout for popular consultation, a setback for AMLO
MEXICO · Report · 09 Aug 2021
Mexico’s first experience with an officially held popular consultation was marked by very low voter turnout on August 1. Promoted by President Andrés Manuel Lopez Obrador and Morena, the question that was initially to be put to voters was whether the past six presidents should be investigated and...
South Africa’s economy amid unrest, Cabinet changes and a mining sector boom
SOUTH AFRICA · Forecast · 09 Aug 2021
South Africa’s growth: South Africa’s economy, which is once again being adversely impacted by another round of more stringent lockdowns on account of the third wave of Covid-19 infections, encountered another setback in July. This was in the form of the civil unrest that took place at the beginn...
FX intervention slows as the economy recovers
ISRAEL · Report · 09 Aug 2021
1. The fiscal deficit declined sharply in July to 9.3% of GDP (LTM) from 10.1% last month. 2. The Bank of Israel reduced FX intervention sharply in July, possibly due to the economic recovery. 3. Disposable income growth remains modest, and fairly much in line with productivity growth.
Expect CPI-inflation to fall below 5% in July, mainly on a favourable base effect
HUNGARY · In Brief · 09 Aug 2021
KSH is set to release its July CPI-inflation report early tomorrow. The median analyst expectation (by Portfolio.hu) is 4.7% yoy, down from 5.3% in June and 5.1% yoy in the preceding two months. We expect 4.9% yoy. The analyst median implies 0.5% monthly inflation, our forecast comes from 0.7% mo...
Belarusian Olympic athlete given asylum in Poland
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 09 Aug 2021
On August 1 Krystina Timanovskaya, a female athlete, publicly denounced her coaches in Tokyo. She was then ordered to return to Belarus immediately. She was granted asylum by the Polish Embassy and put on a flight to Poland. Two coaches who told her to leave the Olympics lost their accreditation ...
Russia makes more than USD 300 million in vaccine sales
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 09 Aug 2021
On August 4 a news website (RBC) published data from the Ministry of Trade. In the first five months of 2021 Russia sold over USD 300 million. This figure includes non-coronavirus vaccines. In the first months of 2020 it was USD 10 million worth of vaccines sold abroad. Millions of doses of Sputn...
Wildfire Damage, Political Fallout and CBRT MPC preview
TURKEY · In Brief · 09 Aug 2021
Turkey’s wildfires tapered off, thanks to cooler weather, but the menace is still with us, as 12 fires in 5 provinces are still in progress. I focus on economic damage to start with, but there is little to change my previous assessment. So far, I received concrete information that reported damage...
FX intervention slows as the economy recovers
ISRAEL · In Brief · 08 Aug 2021
The fiscal deficit continues to contract, reaching 9.3% GDP LTM In July, the deficit reached 0.8bn ILS compared to 12bn in July 2020. Tax revenues in Jan-July are up 14% compared to Jan-July 2019. Non-Covid expenditures are up 3.4% and Covid supports have declined. We expect a deficit of close to...
Industry continued to lead the recovery in June
HUNGARY · In Brief · 08 Aug 2021
The first report on important Q2 data has been released. It is about industrial output, which fell by 0.3% mom but rose by 18.5% yoy in June. In the first place, this means that output stood at 4.8% higher in real terms than in June 2019, which we use as a meaningful pre-Covid base.Second, the Ju...
Russian economic growth slows
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 07 Aug 2021
The Chairman of the Accounts Chamber said on August 5 that the economy will not grow more than 2%. He noted that the economy is still too heavily dependent on hydrocarbon exports. Diversification is too slow. The Chairman of the Accounts Chamber wants an investment economy and said that with that...
American investor in Russia convicted of fraud
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 06 Aug 2021
Michael Calvey was found guilty on August 5. The case has transfixed the financial sector since his arrest in February 2019. He was found to have purposely issued bad loans worth USD 34 million in an acquisition deal for a Russian bank in 2015. Calvey was given a 5.5 year suspended sentence.The c...
The straw that broke the camel's back
VENEZUELA · Report · 06 Aug 2021
Last week, TotalEnergies and Equinor announced their decision to withdraw from the Petrocedeño joint venture, the most important Venezuelan crude upgrader, capable of processing 190,000 barrels a day of extra-heavy crude and producing 170,000 barrels of synthetic crude of 30o API. PDVSA is now th...
Minister Fux canceled the meeting he planned between the leaders of the three branches of government, the Paper Ballot PEC was rejected in the Special Committee of the House, and Ricardo Barros should testify in the Pandemic CPI next week
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 06 Aug 2021
Luís Roberto Barroso and Alexandre Moraes have been attacked by Bolsonaro due to their positioning on the paper ballot issue and the Fake News allegations. The Paper Ballot PEC can still be put to a vote in the plenary of the House despite being rejected in the Committee. The House will try to vo...
GULF WEEKLY: Tanker attacks overshadow Raisi inauguration, Gulf PMIs are strong, Oman backtracks on subsidy reform
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 06 Aug 2021
A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Gulf ministers from UAE, Qatar, Kuwait and Oman attended President Raisi’s inauguration. * Two Europeans were killed in a drone strike on a tanker off Oman, and there was an attempted hijacking of another, both blamed on I...
Withdrawal of the retrospective tax
INDIA · Report · 06 Aug 2021
The government of India has moved a bill to withdraw the retrospective tax introduced in 2012 that led to litigation such as the Vodaphone and Cairn cases. While the bill will put an end to 17 cases in which the tax was imposed retrospectively, this is not a move to resident-based taxation.