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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Over-optimistic forecasters
INDIA · Report · 16 Aug 2021

As the year progresses, GDP forecasts in India are improving, as is to be expected. But there is a bias in the form of over-optimism. Crude bias correction is applied, based on four years of evidence, to obtain a modified consensus forecast for 2021-22: 6.8% GDP growth. GDP measurement in Indi...

Robust GDP growth as well as declining unemployment
ISRAEL · In Brief · 16 Aug 2021

Robust GDP growth as well as declining unemployment GDP growth in Q2 reached 15.4% saar (1st estimate), above consensus and our expectations. GDP growth in Q1 was revised upwards to -1.4% from -5.8%. In Q2, Private consumption growth reached 36.3% (due to the opening up of the economy), investmen...

July’s CPI surprises slightly on the upside
ISRAEL · In Brief · 16 Aug 2021

July’s CPI increased by 0.4% m/m above expectations for 0.3% Headline inflation increased to 1.9% y/y (from 1.7%), core inflation reached 1.7% (up from 1.2%). Housing rental prices accelerated slightly, reaching 1.2% y/y (up from 1.0% last month). Housing purchase prices (a separate survey) incre...

Russian economy bouncing back
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 14 Aug 2021

On August 13 data by the Federal Statistics Agency was published demonstrating that the economy recovered strongly in Q2 2021. The economy grew 10.3% YoY in that quarter. Admittedly Q2 2020 was the worst quarter for several years. The data for Q3 is expected to be even better. In Q1 2021 there wa...

GDP up 10.3% y-o-y in 2Q21 – in line with expectations
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 13 Aug 2021

Rosstat reported the Russian GDP was up in 2Q21 by 10.3% y-o-y, which is in line with our expectations (the latest forecast published in early June 2021). It was a preliminary estimate, and Rosstat provided no more details. One cannot rule out that at a later stage, Rosstat may revise the reporte...

Inflation in Russia
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 13 Aug 2021

On August 9 the Russian Statistics Agency published data showing that food prices are coming down after months of increase. Inflation for food came down from 7.9% per annum in June to 7.4% in July. The government will be pleased. It knows that food price rises will hit its popularity. 12% of Russ...

​GULF WEEKLY: Kuwait's 2020 deficit 30% of GDP, Covid rates ease regionally, Oman’s H1 deficit 9% of GDP
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 13 Aug 2021

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * The IPCC gave a grim climate assessment that could spur an accelerated energy transition. * Raisi nominated his cabinet, and hints began to emerge for the future of nuclear negotiations. * Coronavirus rates have fallen sh...

An External Transparency Committee will follow the entire electoral process, the House approved the return of party coalitions, and the income tax bill should be put to a vote next week
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 13 Aug 2021

The STF received a criminal report from the TSE against President Bolsonaro for leaking information from the investigation of the Federal Police into the cyber attacks on the electronic voting machines in 2018. Deputy Ricardo Barros should testify in the Pandemic CPI again. President Bolsonaro ha...

Policy direction in China
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 13 Aug 2021

Faced with unusual challenges, including Covid and US-China decoupling, China is choosing to focus on four main policy areas. These are: * Covid response. * Macroeconomy. * Regulatory environment (including US-China policy). * The Property sector. The choices the lead...

MPC: Rates on hold as expected, but uncertainty prevails
TURKEY · Report · 12 Aug 2021

The Monetary Policy Committee kept the policy rate (one week repo) at 19% today. This was the consensus expectation, although there were some second thoughts prevailing among market players whether the Bank would be able to hold its ground after the recent comments made by President Erdogan (link...

The income tax bill should be put to a vote next week, the CBS bill should be put to a vote in December, and Dep. Ricardo Barros testifies in the Pandemic CPI
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 12 Aug 2021

The rapporteur of the income tax bill, Deputy Celso Sabino, submitted a new report that reduces the corporate income tax from 15% to 6.5% in 2022. The rapporteur of the Social Contribution on Goods and Services (CBS) bill said he would submit a preliminary report on the text by mid-August. The “d...

Renewed pressure on Belarus
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 12 Aug 2021

On August 10 Lukashenka hit out at the US and UK after they imposed yet more sanctions on Belarus. On August 8 there were large scale anti-Lukashenka marches in Ukraine. Belarusian oppositionists have often fled to Ukraine.On August 3 a Belarussian oppositionist Vital Shyshou was found hanged fro...

Betting on a return to normality, with the Delta variant so far nowhere in sight
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Report · 11 Aug 2021

With the decrease in the number of COVID-19 infections, the rise in the number of vaccinated people and amid strong public pressure, the government has been gradually lifting mobility restrictions. Authorities have indicated that so far the Delta variant is not circulating in the country. But wi...

The federal budget surplus widens in July prompting expenditures to be amended
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 11 Aug 2021

The federal budget surplus reached R890 bn in 7M21 after in July it accounted for over R115 bn. In 7M21, the government spent nearly R12.8 trln, i.e., 69.3% of the formally approved annual target (R21.5 trln), implying no delays in allocating the budgetary funds. In July alone, the government spe...

The House rejected the paper ballot PEC, the income tax bill should be put to a vote today, and the Political Reform proposal should be put to a vote on Thursday
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 11 Aug 2021

There were 229 votes in favor and 218 votes against the paper ballot PEC, and the bill needed at least 308 votes in order to be approved. However, this vote shows that the government still has a considerable amount of influence in the House, as there were more votes in favor of the bill than agai...

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