GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights

The COVID Parliamentary Committee of Inquiry (CPI) in the Senate has scheduled several testimonies for this week. The president of the Brazilian Health Regulatory Agency (Anvisa), Antonio Barra Torres, should testify on Tuesday, former Secretary of Communication, Fabio Wajngarten, on Wednesday, a...

BoI tapers bond purchases, but FX intervention remains strong

ISRAEL · Report · 10 May 2021

Unofficial bond tapering by the BoI is apparent, while FX intervention increased sharply in April. Economic indicators remain robust, especially business sector surveys and consumer confidence. The cumulative fiscal deficit in the last 12 months to April declined to 11.2% on strong tax revenues d...

BoI tapers bond purchases, but FX intervention remains strong

ISRAEL · In Brief · 09 May 2021

Economic indicators continue to point to a strong recovery The Poalim Consumer Confidence Index returned to pre-Covid levels. Disposable income increased by 2.1% y/y in February. The CBS Business Survey points to expansion in most sectors. In this business sector survey, inflation expectations in...

Enter Twilight Zone

TURKEY · Report · 09 May 2021

Ankara has grasped the consequences of quarreling with all of her diplomatic partners. The new policy of reset or normalization is in full swing, but there are no positive results so far. That Ankara has changed strategy is commendable, but now it has to learn the art of compromise, or give-and-t...

Belarus' president provides for collective leadership if he is incapacitated

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 09 May 2021

On May 8 Lukashenko signed a decree stating that if he dies in office or is otherwise rendered incapable of executing his duties then the Security Council shall collectively carry out presidential duties. Until now if the president died or was incapacitated then presidential powers would have bee...

Russian small loans soar

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 08 May 2021

On May 6 Equifax Russia published statistics showing that the highest ever number of payday loans was issued in March 2021. Microloans were up 30% YoY. The loans totalled USD 418.5 million. The average size of a loan was USD 180. That is a tidy sum in a country where many people live on USD 2 000...

Renewed pressure on Lukashenko

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 08 May 2021

On May 6 the self-declared President of Belarus Svytlana Tsikhanouskaya called for an international conference on Belarus. She wants the EU to formulate a plan to assist civil society in Belarus. She also testified before the US Congress by videolink and requested tighter sanctions. On May 5 layw...

Russian Institutional Investors: Exposure to OFZ Boosted by Contraction of Deposits

RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 07 May 2021

In April, the CBR released data on investments of pensions funds and insurance companies for FY2020. The aggregate amount of assets of Russian institutional investors exceeded 9.5% of GDP. Certain acceleration in growth of assets was demonstrated by insurers due to generally low interest rates in...

GULF WEEKLY: Saudi deficit narrows, Saudi-Turkey talks, new Qatar finance minister

GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 07 May 2021

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Coronavirus cases rebounded in Bahrain but eased elsewhere in the Gulf. * Erdogan spoke with King Salman, and Cavusoglu will visit Riyadh next week. * The Saudi deficit narrowed to just -1% of GDP in Q1 but will deteriora...

Health Minister's testimony in the Covid CPI was largely positive

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 07 May 2021

Yesterday, Marcelo Queiroga testified before the COVID Parliamentary Committee of Inquiry (CPI). Many criticized him but, overall, his contributions to the Committee were positive and did not incriminate the president or the government. In relation to Tax Reform, the rapporteur, Deputy Aguinaldo...

Trade strengthens

CHINA · Forecast · 07 May 2021

Growth is strong, weak investment notwithstanding. In Q1 2021, industrial output was up 14% y/y from Q1 2019, with annualized growth of 6.8%, slightly lower than in Q4 2020. In Q1, investment rose 25.6% y/y, and increased only 5.4% from Q1 2019, with an annualized growth rate of 2.6%, much lower...

Alborotation

COLOMBIA · Report · 07 May 2021

Alboroto is agitation, excitement, racket, disturbance, commotion, ruckus and finally, riot. This is what President Iván Duque and his now-ex Finance Minister Alberto Carrasquilla generated with their ill-fated tax reform proposal, aimed at redistributing income from the middle and affluent class...

US affirms support for Ukraine

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 07 May 2021

On May 6 the US Secretary of State made a speech in Kyiv calling upon Russian to end its ''aggression.'' Blinken warned that Russia has now withdrawn all the troops that it massed at Ukraine's border. NATO confirmed Blinken's assessment. The US has allotted USD 408 million in military aid for Ukr...

Industry and retail sales figures for March to be read cautiously

HUNGARY · In Brief · 06 May 2021 · 1 response

At first glance, March industrial output (+16.1% yoy) looks spectacular, whereas retail sales for the same month (-1.7% yoy) looks ugly. But base-period Covid circumstances need to be taken into account in both cases. Actually, industry was up mildly, by a quite normal 0.4% on mom basis in March,...

MPC: Rates on hold, statement fuzzier

TURKEY · Report · 06 May 2021 · 1 response

The Monetary Policy Committee has left the policy rate (one-week repo rate) unchanged at 19% (simple), as expected. Regarding the broader economic environment, today’s statement now recognizes: 1) the resumption of the increase in commodity prices; 2) that the economic activity is still strong, b...