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​Essential CIS Politics: July 2021
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 26 Jul 2021

*The summit between Putin and Biden went well, which pleased the stock market. *Coronavirus is rising in Russia, necessitating restrictions in Moscow and some other regions. *Tajikistan is worried as the Taliban are moving up to their border. *Russia claimed to have fired warning shots a...

We expect the MNB to tighten further tomorrow
HUNGARY · In Brief · 26 Jul 2021 · 1 response

Last week, we said in our quarterly forecast that we expect the MNB to tighten further at their July 27 rate-setting meeting, either by raising the base rate by another 15 bps to 1.05% or by announcing some material specifics on cutting back QE policies, or maybe both at the same time. Now that t...

The CBR pulls the key rate higher, but is likely to stay on hold going forward
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 26 Jul 2021

The Russian Central bank raised its key rate by 100 bps to 6.5%, i.e., to the level of the current y-o-y inflation. Annualized 3M or 6M moving average, however, is much higher. Though, it will come down fast in 4Q21. The CBR referred to elevated inflationary expectations, identified its monetary ...

Russia sends aid to Cuba
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 26 Jul 2021

On July 24 Russia sent two Antonov 124 cargo planes containing 88 tons of humanitarian aid to Cuba. There are demonstrations in Cuba due to economic hardship. The aid dispatched by Moscow includes comestibles, PPE and over a million medical masks.The USA recently imposed even stricter sanctions o...

​Life after Eid al Ahda
TURKEY · In Brief · 26 Jul 2021

Even though GSP Turkey team is officially on holiday, I thought it is important to share significant political developments during the Eid al Ahda holiday with our readership.In addition, soaring Covid-19 cases and a devastating drought could lead to downside revisions in economic forecasts. Fina...

Russia raises rate by the highest amount since 2014
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 24 Jul 2021

On July 23 the Russian Central Bank raised the key interest rate by 1%. The aim is to contain inflation. The rate is now 6.5%, which is where it was before coronavirus. The RUB rose a little on the news. A rise in the key rate was generally anticipated. It had been trailed in the media earlier in...

Venezuela and the Pandemic
VENEZUELA · Report · 23 Jul 2021

​According to official data, since the second Covid-19 wave began at the end of March, the number of daily new cases has averaged 1,200, with no signs of slowing down and without the Delta variant having officially entered Venezuela. Cases are bound to rise, and quarantines will be more strictly ...

Russia brags about unbeatable weapons
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 23 Jul 2021

On July 11 Russia showed its new Sukhoi jet. The warplane can hit six targets simultaneously. It is Russia's answer to the F-35. The Sukhoi jet was shown at Russia's biennial airshow. The jet was developed in 2020. Its development was unusually fast. The manufacturers are Rostec and the United Ai...

​Delta watch
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 23 Jul 2021

Over two months after detecting the Delta variant of the coronavirus in two returning overseas workers, the Department of Health (DoH) yesterday confirmed that there has been local transmission of what the World Health Organization described as the “most able and fastest and fittest of those viru...

Government’s relationship with Congress should improve with the ministerial changes, the Electoral Fund caused tension between Bolsonaro and Dep. Ramos, and Minister Braga Netto’s statement regarding paper ballots was criticized
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 23 Jul 2021

Senator Ciro Nogueira will become the first senator in a ministerial position and should facilitate dialogue between the government and the Senate. Despite Deputy Ramos’s threats to review the impeachment requests against Bolsonaro, he will likely not follow through. Congress is considering summo...

​GULF WEEKLY: Kuwait downgraded, phone hacking scandal, MBZ visits MBS
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 23 Jul 2021

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * After dipping following Sunday’s OPEC+ deal, oil has recovered back to last week’s level (Brent $73). * The UAE and Saudi crown princes met in Riyadh to signal their ongoing alliance despite differences. * There were emba...

Upcoming Peru Webinar: Reviewing the next government's policies
PERU · Report · 23 Jul 2021

Join us for our live Zoom Webinar on Thursday, July 29, 2021, as our Peru Political Analyst Dr. Alfredo Thorne discusses the new president's political and economic plans following the inauguration.

Webinar: Chile Political Update
CHILE · Report · 23 Jul 2021

Watch the replay of our "Chile: Political Update​" webinar featuring Dr. Robert Funk. Following upsets in Chile's primaries, Dr. Funk discusses the primary results and their impact on the upcoming elections, the ongoing constitutional process, and the road ahead for Chile. The replay is availa...

The South African Reserve Bank leaves interest rates unchanged following the country’s unrest
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 23 Jul 2021

The Reserve Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) again voted to leave the benchmark interest rate unchanged following the conclusion of its fourth meeting of the year. As such, the repo rate remains at 3.5% and the prime lending rate at 7%. This was the outcome despite the MPC’s view that the o...

The Russian industry up in 2Q21 and 1H21 by 10.1% and 4.4% y-o-y
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 23 Jul 2021

Rosstat reported that industrial performance was strong in June as it increased by 10.5% y-o-y. The mining sector was up by 13.8%, and manufacturing grew by 7.7% (both figures are y-o-y also). There are significant base effects and y-o-y growth in the mining will remain strong until year-end (eit...

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