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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Bolsonaro will likely make changes to his ministerial team on Monday, the Minister of Defense states there will be no election next year unless the paper ballot system is approved, and the truckers’ strike is unlikely to be approved
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 22 Jul 2021

Ciro Nogueira should become the Chief of Staff, General Ramos should go to the General Secretariat of the Government and Onyx Lorenzoni will head the new Ministry of Employment. The changes strengthen the Centrão’s role in the government ahead of a difficult second semester in the Senate. Ministe...

Belated prime rate increase: up to 8.0%
UKRAINE · In Brief · 22 Jul 2021

The NBU Board increased primed rate by 0.5 ppt up to 8.0%. That happened despite monthly inflation slowed down to +0.2% m/m (+9.5% y/y) in June from +1.3% m/m (+9.5% y/y) in the prior month. From the press-release it’s not clear why the NBU woke up so late, not a month ago. But as we see, the mon...

Watching the recovery
INDIA · Report · 21 Jul 2021

The economy has gone through a sharp decline, with the extreme lockdown of March 2020, followed by a recovery, a second wave, and then a second recovery. The first recovery had proceeded for 245–322 days while the second recovery has been in motion for 50–78 days. The second downturn was milder t...

Inflation showed more signs of moderation, but more action from the CBR is expected
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 21 Jul 2021

Rosstat reported that the weekly consumer price index during the period ending July 19 turned slightly negative (-0.01%), i.e., into a kind of mini-deflation. As of July 19, inflation MTD was at 0.38% (in 2020 it was almost the same during the comparable period – 0.35%, while inflation YTD reache...

Dep. Ramos believes Bolsonaro is guilty of a crime of responsibility, Augusto Aras reappointed to the PGR for another two years, and Bolsonaro confirms he will veto the increased electoral fund
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 21 Jul 2021

Deputy Ramos’s impeachment threats are unlikely to proceed. While the conflict between Bolsonaro and Ramos does not directly affect the government’s relationship with the Centrão or its allies, it does negatively impact the market. The Senate’s legislative agenda in the second semester will be bu...

The year of uncertainty: Covid, inflation and EU funds
HUNGARY · Forecast · 21 Jul 2021 · 1 response

Moving forward within the year, official sources are painting the picture of an increasingly strong economy with no prospective further disruption from Covid, with the likely annual GDP growth rate over 6% and with growing inflationary pressures. The policy response they are talking about is dist...

Belarus intensifies crackdown on the media
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 21 Jul 2021

Lukashenka is becoming even more oppressive. On July 20 more journalists and historians were arrested, and the bank accounts of the Belarusian Association of Journalists' were frozen. The same happened to the PEN Club and other NGOs.The police raided the homes of 66 people who are members of vari...

Russia to hold military exercises near Afghanistan
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 20 Jul 2021

On July 19 Moscow stated that it will deploy troops in Tajikistan and Uzbekistan to hold joint drills with the armies of those countries. On August 5-10 military drills will be held in Tajikistan. Later drills will be held in Uzbekistan. The stated aim of the drills is to prepare for the eventual...

President Bolsonaro once again criticized the electoral fund, the measure was judicialized in the STF, and the PSDB considers not launching its own presidential candidate next year
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 20 Jul 2021

President Bolsonaro also criticized the Vice President of Congress, Deputy Marcelo Ramos, who responded by requesting access to the impeachment proceedings against Bolsonaro. The case in the STF against the electoral fund is unlikely to progress. Although the PSDB is considering not launching a p...

Two possible levels of Central Government deficit for 2022: -4.4% and -2.7% of GDP
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 19 Jul 2021

The Ministry of Finance sent the 2022 Macroeconomic and Fiscal Projections Progress Report to the National Congress. A vague document on the projections of income, spending and budgetary results projected for 2022, in which three possible scenarios of budgetary results are presented. Scenario 1 I...

​Inflation will remain high and the recovery weak in 2022, even if the government can avoid another debt default
ARGENTINA · Forecast · 19 Jul 2021

Any economic forecast for the Argentinian economy needs to start by assessing the possibility of avoiding another debt default over the next two years. A default on the dollar-denominated debt would adopt the form of going into arrears with the IMF, thereby blocking the possibility of accessing f...

The convoluted Center and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 19 Jul 2021

Due to the legislative recess, this week should be relatively slow in Brasilia. President Jair Bolsonaro has left the hospital in São Paulo and should return to work this week. On July 24, the opposition plans to hold demonstrations against the government. This week's Talking Points: *...

The correct path to recovery
ECUADOR · Forecast · 19 Jul 2021 · 1 response

The first 150 days of President Lasso’s administration have been characterized by economic openness with sensible protection of Ecuadorian producers; transparency, efficiency, and investment attraction for the oil sector; recovery and improvement of domestic productivity; hard work to continue wi...

​OPEC+ deal boosts future allocations for UAE, Saudi and Kuwait
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 19 Jul 2021 · 1 response

The new OPEC+ deal implements a 2m b/d taper in cuts over the rest of 2021 and extends producer cooperation until end-2022. It implies further tapering back to baselines by October 2022. In return for its cooperation, the UAE gets a boost in its baseline to 3.5m b/d (a 10.5% increase) for the fin...

ECONOMIC ACTIVITY – THE LATEST INDICATORS
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 19 Jul 2021

Despite the frustration over the performance of the IBC-Br for May (decline of 0.43% when the expectation was elevation of 1.1%), there are no reasons to alter the growth projections for 2021. The recovery continues to be favored by the expansion of global trade and the rising commodity prices. W...

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