GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights

On May 17 it was announced that sugar companies have made a bumper profit. This is ironic since the PM railed against companies for excessive profiteering only last week.Rusagro is a comestible company and it made USD 152 million in profit before EBITDA in Q1 2021. That is a YoY 100% increase in ...

Demonstration of support for Bolsonaro and other weekly topics

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 17 May 2021

The voting agenda in the Lower House includes, among other items, the provisional measure on the privatization of Eletrobras. The Constitution and Justice Committee may also vote on the report on Administrative Reform. The president of the Lower House, Arthur Lira (PP-AL), will release a timetabl...

The South African business environment and post-Covid economic performance

SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 17 May 2021

The overall business environment in South Africa has been challenging, especially since the great recession, with factors such as policy uncertainty and electricity supply shortages resulting in low business confidence. Against this backdrop, the performance of the country’s private enterprises ...

The formally approved 2021 Russian budget is likely to be balanced

RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 14 May 2021

The Finance Ministry reported that the oil-and-gas revenues soared on a m-o-m basis and reached R893 bn in April 2021 (versus monthly average R540bn in 1Q21). This increase could be partially explained by lagged effects of the increased oil price earlier in the year. A bit weaker ruble in April a...

GULF WEEKLY: Omani spending rises, solid Saudi Q1 GDP, Israel normalization tested

GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 14 May 2021

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * The worst Israeli-Palestinian conflict since 2014 presents a challenge to Gulf-Israel normalization. * US-Iran talks entered a critical phase, just two weeks before Iranian electioneering begins. * Saudi Arabia confirmed ...

Strategic regime moderation

VENEZUELA · Report · 12 May 2021

Maduro’s government has signaled a major shift in stance and strategy in the last several weeks. Most importantly, it agreed to a legal process for renewing the five-member board of the National Electoral Council that resulted in the designation of two opposition-aligned members. Maduro has al...

Monetary Policy: Continuation of the “Partial Adjustment” Cycle

BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 10 May 2021

Last week, the COPOM raised the SELIC rate by 75 basis points and promised (with some reservations) an adjustment of equal magnitude at the meeting in June. With respect to the overall size of the cycle, however, it continued affirming that it will pursue a “partial adjustment”. Since its task wi...

BoI tapers bond purchases, but FX intervention remains strong

ISRAEL · Report · 10 May 2021

Unofficial bond tapering by the BoI is apparent, while FX intervention increased sharply in April. Economic indicators remain robust, especially business sector surveys and consumer confidence. The cumulative fiscal deficit in the last 12 months to April declined to 11.2% on strong tax revenues d...

Belarus' president provides for collective leadership if he is incapacitated

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 09 May 2021

On May 8 Lukashenko signed a decree stating that if he dies in office or is otherwise rendered incapable of executing his duties then the Security Council shall collectively carry out presidential duties. Until now if the president died or was incapacitated then presidential powers would have bee...

Russian small loans soar

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 08 May 2021

On May 6 Equifax Russia published statistics showing that the highest ever number of payday loans was issued in March 2021. Microloans were up 30% YoY. The loans totalled USD 418.5 million. The average size of a loan was USD 180. That is a tidy sum in a country where many people live on USD 2 000...

Renewed pressure on Lukashenko

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 08 May 2021

On May 6 the self-declared President of Belarus Svytlana Tsikhanouskaya called for an international conference on Belarus. She wants the EU to formulate a plan to assist civil society in Belarus. She also testified before the US Congress by videolink and requested tighter sanctions. On May 5 layw...

GULF WEEKLY: Saudi deficit narrows, Saudi-Turkey talks, new Qatar finance minister

GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 07 May 2021

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Coronavirus cases rebounded in Bahrain but eased elsewhere in the Gulf. * Erdogan spoke with King Salman, and Cavusoglu will visit Riyadh next week. * The Saudi deficit narrowed to just -1% of GDP in Q1 but will deteriora...

QATAR: Finance minister charged

GULF COUNTRIES · In Brief · 06 May 2021 · 1 response

In a stunning development in the last hour, it was announced that the arrest had been ordered of Ali Shareef al-Emadi, Qatar's finance minister, by the Attorney General (QNA). It is not clear if he is in custody or the specifics of the charges being brought against him, described as involving "da...

Winter is coming - a quantitative review of COVID

ARGENTINA · Report · 05 May 2021

Over the last year, we have been analyzing the economic and political impact of the pandemic, anticipating the scope of this global shock on the local economy. In this report, amid a severe second wave, with an erratic vaccination program being implemented, we add a complementary question: How mu...

Tax uncertainties add up to more than R$ 1 trillion and other weekly topics

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 03 May 2021

Expectations are high regarding the testimony of the former Ministers of Health and the current Minister of Health, Marcelo Queiroga, in the Pandemic CPI in the Senate. The president of the Lower House, Arthur Lira (PP-AL), has promised to release the final report on Tax Reform today, May 3. Cong...