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Events
Databanks
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Argentina databank May 13 -
Brazil Economics databank May 19
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Central America databank May 1
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Chile databank Apr 7
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China databank Mar 21
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Colombia databank May 12
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Dominican Republic databank Apr 28
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Ecuador databank Apr 22
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Gulf Countries databank May 16
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Hungary databank Apr 22
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India databank Apr 28
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Mexico databank May 12
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Panama databank May 13
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Peru databank Apr 28
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Philippines databank May 8
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Poland databank Apr 29
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Russia Economics databank May 12
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South Africa databank May 6
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Turkey databank Apr 24
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Ukraine databank May 12
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Venezuela databank May 5
NEWS FLASH
WEBINAR - LATIN AMERICA: FISCAL PRESSURES AND POLITICAL SHIFTS...
COUNTRY INSIGHTS
Politics: Labor reform, at a snail’s pace, but bolstered by the USMCA
MEXICO · Report · 06 Jul 2021
Mexico’s 2019 labor reform is being implemented very slowly, but it is surely moving forward. The country’s moribund labor movement is indeed in need of a major overhaul. The majority of Mexican unions are company unions, with employer-worker relations underpinned by protection contracts. Union r...
Synthesis of the Brazilian Economy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 06 Jul 2021
Since the death toll from Covid-19 exceeded the unenviable milestone of 500 thousand, positive signs have emerged due to the progress of vaccination. Fortunately, the threat of a third contagion wave did not materialize: the peak of daily deaths surpassed 2 thousand in the 7-day moving average on...
The government prepares to pay for the three extra months of emergency aid, privatization of Correios in the House, and Joint Budget Committee to be installed
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 06 Jul 2021
The government should announce a new social program to replace the Bolsa Família in October. The Correios auction is scheduled for March 2022. Regina Célia testifies in the Pandemic CPI today. Fernando Guardado’s appointment to the Central Bank was approved.
Inflation slows to 4.1%
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 06 Jul 2021
The headline inflation rate continued to slow down in June, posting a 4.1% yoy increase vs 4.5% in the previous month. On a mom basis, a slight uptick to 0.2% was observed, mainly due to higher prices of energy-related items. The latter followed rising world oil demand that has pushed up crude oi...
The government is betting on a positive agenda and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 06 Jul 2021
The Pandemic CPI will hear Deputy Luis Miranda (DEM-DF) on Tuesday, July 6, during a secret session. He has made accusations of corruption in the Ministry of Health related to the purchase of the Covaxin vaccine from India. The Senate will vote on some appointments, including that of Fernanda Gua...
Saudi-UAE OPEC+ disagreement tests their relationship
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 06 Jul 2021
OPEC+ has failed to reach an agreement on tapering and extending its deal because the UAE is arguing for the right to produce more in line with its capacity. This dispute has focused attention on broader divergences between the UAE and its close ally Saudi Arabia. However, we expect a compromise ...
Rising tension in the Black Sea
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 06 Jul 2021
On July 5 Russia sent a warship equipped with a long range cruise missile to the Black Sea. A NATO exercise is ongoing in the Black Sea at the moment. The NATO exercise is called "Sea Breeze 2021". Russian ships that had been serving off the coast of Syria are also returning to the Black Sea. The...
A note on Turkey’s foreign policy dilemmas
TURKEY · In Brief · 06 Jul 2021
A series of minor health problems stayed my hand from updating our audience over the last three weeks. I have fully recuperated, and am proud to dispatch my first Market Brief. While a lot happened during my forced absence, most of it is in the nature of “smoke” rather than fire. Thus, I merely f...
Some monetary accommodation removed
ISRAEL · In Brief · 05 Jul 2021
Some monetary accommodation removed The rate hold decision came as no surprise, as well as the unchanged forward guidance: “The Committee will therefore continue to conduct a very accommodative monetary policy for a prolonged time, using a range of tools as necessary, including the interest rate ...
The Senate should hold a series of confirmation hearings this week, Dep. Lira Miranda and Dep. Ricardo Barros’ meetings in the COVID CPI have been postponed and Dep. Arthur Lira sets up an ambitious agenda
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 05 Jul 2021
The Senate Economic Committee will hold a confirmation hearing for economist Fernanda Guardado today. The Ministry of Health’s supervisor of the Covaxin contract, Regina Célia Silva Oliveira, will testify in the COVID CPI on Tuesday. Dep. Miranda and Dep. Barros’ meetings have not yet been resche...
The CBRT and the Stages of Grief
TURKEY · Report · 05 Jul 2021
Consumer prices rose by 1.9% in June, markedly higher than the market consensus of around 1.4%, raising the 12-month rate to 17.5% from 16.6% in May. Producer prices also rose sharply once again, by 4%, m/m, with the 12-month rate jumping to 42.9% from 38.3% a month earlier, and the spread betwee...
Ukraine permits the sale of farmland for the first time in 20 years
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 05 Jul 2021
On July 1 a new law took effect which allowed people to buy and sell land. The law was demanded by the IMF as a condition for a loan. However, the land can only be sold to Ukrainians. A citizen can buy up to 100 hectares. As of 2024 auctions will take place allowing agribusinesses to buy up to 10...
Vaccine rollout in Russia as infections surge
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 05 Jul 2021
Russians are reluctant to get vaccinated. On June 30 only 16% of people had had at least one dose. In the UK, by contrast, the figure is over 80%. Russia has the highest number of doctors per capita in the world so it should be doing much better. People in Russia are being vaccinated at a rate of...
BoI likely to suggest that bond purchasing may not be extended
ISRAEL · In Brief · 04 Jul 2021
Highlights: Private consumption slows Credit card purchases declined by 3.6% in May following an 18% increase from January to April. We estimate that credit card purchases declined by 3% m/m (sa) in June, by looking at the weekly data provided through 29.6. Chain store sales declined by 6.6% in M...
Housing sector developments: a recap
TURKEY · Report · 04 Jul 2021
There is a well-established consensus among Turkey watchers that the Turkish economy went through a massive credit-fueled/construction-driven economic boom, which has accelerated --or become vividly patent-- after the Global Financial Crisis (GFC). In other words, Turkey is one of those countries...