GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights

* Russia’s economy continues to grow, and data shows that 2020 was better than expected. * FixPrice’s IPO in London has been a roaring success. * Ukraine is nationalizing Motor Sich, which will upset China. * Some EU countries are buying Sputnik V. * The Kyrgyz president has been ...

No signs of credit restraint in China

CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 24 Mar 2021

There is widespread talk within Beijing following the leadership meetings about a return to lower credit growth following years of excesses. This is being echoed by the western media. The Financial Times just published a piece saying that Xi Jinping is “curbing the credit fuelled excesses of the ...

Consumption set to rebound

CHINA · Report · 24 Mar 2021

Economic recovery is still going strong. In January-February, industrial output was up 35.1% y/y, and up 16.9% compared to January-February 2019. Annualized growth was 8.1% y/y, higher than all quarterly growth since 2015, and up 1 pps from Q4 2020. Since the Chinese economy was shut down to a la...

Initial election results positive for Netanyahu

ISRAEL · In Brief · 24 Mar 2021

With over 70% of the votes counted, the right-wing Likud-led block appears to be the winner with 57 seats (out of 120 in the Israeli Parliament). This includes the Likud (32), the ultra-orthodox (19) and the ultra-right Zionist (6) parties. Benett (Yemina) received 7 seats and if he joins this bl...

No strong messages from today's Monetary Council meeting

HUNGARY · In Brief · 23 Mar 2021

The Monetary Council's regular monthly rate-setting meeting ended without any policy change today. No changes can be foreseen on the basis of what the Council said in its statement or at the usual press conference.One timely subject is the current and prospective upswing of the headline inflation...

Ford to make first electric vehicles in Russia

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 23 Mar 2021

On March 22 Kommersant reported that the US carmaker will become the first company to produce electric vehicles in Russia. The company will be in partnership with a Russian company called Sollers. The Ford Transit will have an electric version made in Tatarstan from 2022.Sollers anticipated that ...

RUB falls due to row with the US

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 23 Mar 2021

On March 23 the RUB fell 2%. At one point it touched 73.6 to the USD. It fell to 90.6 to the EUR but then climbed. There has been 5% fall in 7 days. Biden's statement that Putin is a killer has spooked the markets. There is a risk of even more US sanctions.Oil prices are down slightly over the pa...

Economics: A brighter 2021 foreign trade outlook but risks remain

MEXICO · Report · 22 Mar 2021

Institutions and analysts continue to raise their 2021 economic projections for Mexico on the back of expectations of stronger growth globally. The improved Mexican forecasts reflect expectations of how much stronger US industrial activity, which we expect will expand 4.7% this year, and economic...

Political tension increases and other weekly topics

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 22 Mar 2021

Dr. Marcelo Queiroga will take office as the new Minister of Health. President Jair Bolsonaro will meet with the heads of the legislative and judiciary branches to discuss pandemic measures. In Congress, we highlight the possible vote on the 2021 Budget. The Central Bank releases the minutes of m...

Inflation accelerates but remains fundamentally low

ISRAEL · In Brief · 21 Mar 2021

Highlights of the Weekly Israel Macro Wrap Up 22.3.21February’s CPI reached 0.3% m/m, above expectations This was due to higher rental prices and an upward correction in clothing prices. Core inflation moved higher to 0.3% y/y from zero last month. The major forecasters on average now expect infl...

Little fires everywhere

TURKEY · Report · 21 Mar 2021 · 5 responses

We have, naturally, centered this Sunday’s report around the sudden and unexpected dismissal of CBRT Governor Naci Agbal over the weekend, who has been replaced by Mr. Sahap Kavcioglu, an advocate of low interest rate policies, an academic at Marmara University’s School of Banking and a former se...

Bulgaria tells Russia to cease spying

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 21 Mar 2021

On March 20 the Bulgarian Prime Minister told Russia to refrain from espionage. On March 19 Bulgaria said it had arrested 6 Bulgarians who were spying for Russia. However, Sofia has not decided to expel any Russian diplomats this time which is what it has done several times over the past 2 years....

Russia increases key rate

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 20 Mar 2021

On March 19 the Central Bank of Russia raised the key rate for the first time since 2018. Rising inflation and food prices obliged the CBR to change its monetary policy. The benchmark was gone up from 4.25% to 4.5%.

Lukashenka names two possible successors

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 19 Mar 2021

On March 19 Lukashenka for the first time ever publicly discussed two potential replacement for him as a president. He named the ex health minister Uladzimer Karanik and the ex Interior Minister Yury Karayev. Both are under US sanctions.Why does Lukashenka think either of these men might be worth...

GULF WEEKLY: Oil pulls back, Saudi GDP recovers in Q4, Bahrain breaches debt ceiling

GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 19 Mar 2021 · 1 response

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Oil dropped sharply after a five-month rally, and the IEA published its medium-term outlook. *Iran’s president criticized hardliners' obstructing efforts to secure US sanctions relief. There is still time for progress be...