GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * There was positivity after the 5th round of US-Iran talks, but still no deal. Iran was also positive about its talks with Saudi. * Coronavirus cases continued rising in UAE, Kuwait and Oman but eased in Bahrain and Qatar. ...

Don't be fooled by randomness

TURKEY · Report · 03 Jun 2021

Consumer prices rose by 0.89% in May, lower than the consensus (and our) estimate of some 1.3%, which resulted in a drop in the 12-month rate drop --after 7 consecutive months of increase-- to 16.6% from 17.1% in April. On the other hand, producer prices (domestic-PPI inflation) rose by 3.9%, m/m...

Economics: Bits of promising news amid a complicated outlook

MEXICO · Report · 01 Jun 2021

Data released in May provided plenty of evidence of continuing economic weakness in Mexico, but also glimmers of what could be more positive developments to come, as reported numbers of Covid-19 cases continued to trend lower and pandemic-related restrictions continued to be phased out through mu...

Synthesis of the Brazilian Economy

BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 01 Jun 2021

With the death toll still stubbornly high – 1,800 per day in the 7-day moving average – the second wave of Covid-19 contagion is poised to become the start of a new epidemic cycle. The premature relaxation of the rules on opening in sectors where physical proximity is the norm and the still slugg...

Turkey Covid Watch - June 1, 2021

TURKEY · Report · 01 Jun 2021

Covid cases continued to decline this week, albeit at a slower pace. The new measures were officially announced at a cabinet meeting yesterday, including relaxation of curfews and restrictions on intercity travel. In this installment of our Covid Watch, we also provide some illustrative calculati...

The pressure for emergency aid and other weekly topics

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 01 Jun 2021

This week's Thursday holiday means reduced activity in the Legislative branch. The House may announce the creation of a Special Committee to analyze Administrative Reform. Arthur Lira could announce the rapporteur of the bill that creates the CBS tax. In the Senate, the rapporteur of the Eletrobr...

Robust growth without monetary loosening

CHINA · Report · 01 Jun 2021

Growth is stable. Industrial output was up 9.8% y/y in April, and up 14.1% y/y from April 2019, with annualized growth of 6.8% y/y, the same as in Q1, and higher than the pre-pandemic levels in 2018 and 2019. Investment is still weak, and rose 8% y/y from April 2019, with an annualized growth rat...

The "rebound effect" versus the "hysteresis effect": The projections for the economy in 2021 are betting on the former, but we analyze the latter

PANAMA · Report · 01 Jun 2021

The IMF projects 12% real growth for the year, based on three factors: the vaccination rollout, the private investment recovery, and the "rebound effect" after a 17.9 percent drop in economic activity in 2020. Rating agencies and other international analysts are also projecting double-digit growt...

The marriage of the two unicorns

INDONESIA · Report · 01 Jun 2021

Indonesia has seen an interesting story about the merger of two unicorns, Gojek, a ride-hailing start-up, and Tokopedia, a marketplace platform, both of which were "unicorns" before the merger. The merger of the two companies strengthens the technology companies to reach a possible valuation of s...

Q1 GDP: Some signs of a painful transformation?

TURKEY · Report · 31 May 2021

The Turkish economy grew by a higher than expected 7%, y/y, in the first quarter of 2021, and 1.7%, q/q (Graph 1). The information content of year-on-year data in terms of showing the true state of the economy is especially misleading nowadays, given the strong base effects from last year -- and ...

Hi tech exports continue to support shekel appreciation

ISRAEL · In Brief · 30 May 2021

Economic indicators continue to point to a strong recovery Hi-tech service exports increased by 28% saar in Q121. Credit card purchases increased by 18% from January to April. Initial data for May point to a modest contraction (sa). Consumer confidence remained elevated in the 1st half of May, sl...

Gazprom earning up as it plans 703 m tower

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 30 May 2021

On May 29 the Russian gas giant announced it recovered i Q1 in 2021. It made a profit of USD 6.1 billion. That was against a profit of USD 1.8 billion for the whole of 2020. Sales in Q1 2021 up 30% YoY.Most Gazprom exports go to the EU. Profits from these sales were 25% up in Q1. Prices in RUB we...

Another hack on the US suspected to be Russian backed

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 30 May 2021

On May 28 a huge hack occurred in the USA. Government agencies, think tanks, consultants and other bodies were attacked. The group who committed the attack is called Nobelium. The organizations attacked are foreign policy ones. It seems to have been an intelligence gathering exercise.The US Cyber...

The link between EU's ORD and ÁKK/MNB policy

HUNGARY · In Brief · 29 May 2021

On May 27, the EU Commission announced the approval of its Own Resources Decision (ORD) by all 27 member state parliaments. ORD will enable the EU to collect from member states annual fiscal contributions up to 2% of GNI, instead of the maximum 1.4% allowed so far, with a view to generating the r...

Pakistan and Russia agree a pipeline

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 29 May 2021

On May 28 the Ministry of Energy announced that a deal on a natural gas pipeline to be called Flagmanaskim has been signed. It will be a 1 100 km long and will carry 12.3 billion cubic meters per year. The pipeline will pass through Karachi to the port of Gwadar. Some gas will be used by Pakistan...